David Guzman

OF FCL Blue Jays
Age 21 L/L 5'6" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202317ROKTOR231.292/.403/.3902851—.197/.294/.256
202418ROKTOR115.223/.354/.2770033—.168/.257/.208
202620ROKTOR103.250/.417/.3883566—.170/.291/.250
2027PROJMLE21MLBTOR213.214/.288/.3012368-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBTOR37.219/.293/.3161073-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
K%89
BB%82
wRC+72
Whiff%66
wOBA62
ISO60
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%
CompsTravis Swaggerty (age 21) · Alexander Ovalles (age 21) · Gabriel Moncada (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj PA
wRC+†68
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .286 / .299
PA55
HR1
K%26
BB%8
ISO87
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-0POSREP: +1.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Blue Jays — 231195 571112 27259 82 292403390792 97327 1112 365 51 — — — — — —
202418 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 11594 21500 18201 00 223354277631 53276 1716 297 33 — — — — — —
202620 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 10380 20203 21132 51 250417388805 138266 1320 374 66 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays — 231203 40711 19309 82 197294256551 59218 138 244 51 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 115101 17400 11291 00 168257208465 40224 2510 217 33 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 10388 15102 13192 51 170291250541 80202 1813 266 66 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays — 231203 40711 19309 82 197294256551 59227 138 244 51 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Blue Jays — 231195 571112 27259 82 292403390792 97327 1112 365 51 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 115101 17400 11291 00 168257208465 40230 2510 217 33 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWFCL Blue Jays — 11594 21500 18201 00 223354277631 53276 1716 297 33 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 10388 15102 13192 51 170291250541 80194 1813 266 66 — — — — — —
202620 ROK RAWFCL Blue Jays — 10380 20203 21132 51 250417388805 138266 1320 374 66 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays — 231201 40711 19309 82 199294259553 60218 138 244 51 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 115102 17400 11291 00 167257206463 39224 2510 217 33 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 10387 15102 13192 51 172291253544 80202 1813 266 66 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 115102 17400 11291 00 167257206463 39224 2510 217 33 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 10387 15102 13192 51 172291253544 80202 1813 266 66 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLETOR 0% 213191 40712 18552 31 214288301589 87284 268 269 68 -8 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLETOR 34% 10796 22412 9271 10 218292315607 97286 258 276 73 -3 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.2
202822 MLB CTXTOR 34% 3734 7101 390 00 219293316609 97287 248 277 73 -1 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 3734 7101 390 00 206270324594 118250 248 277 56 -1 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650597 12418018 531580 00 208272328601 121252 248 277 56 -21 +0 +0 -4 +14 -1.1
Career— MLE — 611537 1051826 5711914 153 196289270559 74239 199 251 56 -5 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650571 1111926 6112715 163 194289266555 72238 209 251 56 -22 +2 +0 -4 +14 -1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 103 PAwOBA .365 → .266 (−100)K% 12.6% → 18.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.62%÷1.000×1.440——18.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.39%÷1.000×0.620—×0.99512.58%
HBP% /PA1.94%—×0.720—×0.9951.39%
Singles /BIP22.39%÷1.000×0.820×0.958×0.99517.49%
Doubles /BIP2.99%÷1.000×0.720×0.958×0.9952.05%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×0.958×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP4.48%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9953.48%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .365 → .266; ISO .138 → .109; BABIP .266 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 115 PAwOBA .296 → .217 (−79)K% 17.4% → 24.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.39%÷1.009×1.440——24.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.65%÷1.042×0.620—×1.0229.52%
HBP% /PA0.87%—×0.720—×1.0220.64%
Singles /BIP21.62%÷1.016×0.820×1.010×1.02218.03%
Doubles /BIP6.76%÷1.012×0.720×1.010×1.0224.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720×1.010×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.925×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .296 → .217; ISO .053 → .039; BABIP .276 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 231 PAwOBA .355 → .244 (−111)K% 10.8% → 13.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.82%÷1.014×1.220——13.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.26%÷0.979×0.700—×1.0228.23%
HBP% /PA3.90%—×0.700—×1.0222.79%
Singles /BIP25.29%÷1.016×0.680×1.012×1.02217.51%
Doubles /BIP6.47%÷1.059×0.600×1.012×1.0223.79%
Triples /BIP0.59%÷0.900×0.600×1.012×1.0220.41%
Home runs /BIP1.18%÷1.083×0.470—×1.0220.52%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .355 → .244; ISO .097 → .056; BABIP .327 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).