Sebastian Gongora
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 24
LHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 129
ERA4.88
FIP4.88
K%20.9%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 0.69 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 0.70 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 68 | 299 | 86 | 36 | 4 | 91% | 3.1 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 5.00 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 68 | 299 | 86 | 36 | 4 | 91% | 3.1 | 28.8% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 1.3% | 5.00 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 17 | 16 | 84 | 351 | 80 | 24 | 7 | 94% | 4.9 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 2.4% | 3.55 | 3.81 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 59 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.9% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.94 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 151 | 635 | 139 | 62 | 15 | — | — | 21.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 4.14 | 4.29 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.9% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 62 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.68 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 63 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 62 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.65 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 41 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 129 | 543 | 118 | 64 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.33 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 100 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 36 | 154 | 657 | 132 | 68 | 13 | 90% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.77 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 47 | 200 | 855 | 172 | 89 | 16 | 90% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sebastian Gongora (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 20.9% | 13.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.65 | 21.7% | 9.9% | 203 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 81 |
| Caden Grice L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.28 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 81 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.13 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 96 | -0.70 | 3.84 | 249 | 81 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.73 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .295 | 3.97 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 40 | +0.24 | 3.73 | 245 | 80 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 80 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 80 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 79 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.72 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.7% | .240 | 4.62 | 27.5% | 11.6% | 49 | +0.90 | 3.72 | 239 | 78 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 78 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 78 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 78 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.06 | 18.7% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .288 | 7.16 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 69 | +2.10 | 4.88 | 224 | 77 |
| Brett Adcock L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.22 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 301 | 77 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 76 |
| Rio Britton L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 76 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.01 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .309 | 3.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 148 | -1.76 | 2.44 | 496 | 76 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 75 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 75 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 3.9% | .308 | 3.29 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 142 | -2.01 | 2.91 | 484 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 1.06 | 4.74 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |