Sebastian Gongora

Sebastian Gongora P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 LHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%20.9%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL4045

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.69	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.69	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	68	299	86	36	4	91%	3.1	21.8%	14.0%	7.8%	1.5%	5.00	3.86	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	68	299	86	36	4	91%	3.1	21.8%	14.0%	7.8%	1.5%	5.00	3.86	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	68	299	86	36	4	91%	3.1	28.8%	12.0%	16.7%	1.3%	5.00	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	21	119	506	111	35	14	81%	4.6	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.3%	3.62	4.39	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	21	119	506	111	35	14	81%	4.6	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.3%	3.62	4.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	BAL	26	21	119	506	111	35	14	81%	4.6	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	2.8%	3.62	3.64	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	6	24	5	3	1	100%	5.7	20.9%	14.1%	6.7%	2.7%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	125	530	116	38	15	—	—	21.9%	7.2%	14.6%	2.8%	3.68	4.41	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	500	107	63	14	100%	5.9	21.4%	12.6%	8.8%	2.7%	4.84	4.77	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	500	108	61	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	12.2%	9.4%	2.8%	4.75	4.71	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	117	492	106	59	14	100%	6.1	21.6%	12.0%	9.6%	2.8%	4.73	4.73	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	113	478	103	58	14	100%	6.0	21.5%	12.1%	9.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.80	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	108	456	97	56	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	3.1%	4.86	4.93	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	102	429	90	54	14	100%	6.0	20.9%	12.6%	8.3%	3.3%	5.01	5.11	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	52	220	47	28	6	100%	5.8	21.4%	12.6%	8.8%	2.9%	4.91	4.84	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	79	334	72	41	10	100%	6.1	21.6%	12.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.78	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	91	384	83	46	11	100%	6.1	21.6%	12.0%	9.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.80	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	95	401	86	48	12	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.1%	9.4%	3.1%	4.83	4.87	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	95	401	85	49	13	100%	5.9	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	3.2%	4.94	5.01	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	91	384	80	48	13	100%	6.1	20.9%	12.6%	8.3%	3.4%	5.09	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	503	2124	454	261	65	100%	6.0	21.4%	12.3%	9.1%	3.1%	4.90	4.54	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	104	26	100%	6.0	21.4%	12.3%	9.1%	3.1%	4.90	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		49	41	189	812	157	80	21	84%	3.9	19.3%	9.9%	9.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.16	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	858	166	85	22	84%	3.9	19.3%	9.9%	9.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.16	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sebastian Gongora (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	20.9%	14.1%	2.7%	—	4.74	21.5%	9.2%	353	-0.26	—	—	—
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	84
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	84
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	82
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	82
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	82
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	81
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	81
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	80
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	79
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	77
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	77
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	76
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	76
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	76
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	76
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	75
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	74
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	21.3%	12.5%	1.12	4.84
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25