Sebastian Gongora

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#895ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+Aberdeen Iron…	1	0	2	5.40	0.70	28.6%	0.0%	—	K 28.6% · BB 0.0% · FIP 0.69
2025	23	MIX2 levels	22	20	68	5.00	2.92	28.8%	12.0%	—	K 21.8% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.86
2026	24	AABAL	26	21	119	3.62	3.64	21.9%	6.9%	—	K 17.8% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.39
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	1	1	1	4.79	4.79	18.2%	9.4%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBAL	6	6	38	4.78	4.77	19.0%	9.2%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBAL	8	8	50	4.77	4.78	19.2%	9.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$0.7M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJake McSteen (age 25) · Miguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Chipper Smith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%18.2%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.69	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.69	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	68	299	86	36	4	91%	3.1	21.8%	14.0%	7.8%	1.5%	5.00	3.86	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	68	299	86	36	4	91%	3.1	21.8%	14.0%	7.8%	1.5%	5.00	3.86	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	68	299	86	36	4	91%	3.1	28.8%	12.0%	16.7%	1.3%	5.00	2.92	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	21	119	506	111	35	14	81%	4.6	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.3%	3.62	4.39	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	21	119	506	111	35	14	81%	4.6	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.3%	3.62	4.39	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	26	21	119	506	111	35	14	81%	4.6	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	2.8%	3.62	3.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.79	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	87	369	70	34	11	100%	5.8	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.71	4.70	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	79	335	64	31	10	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.69	4.70	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	74	312	60	29	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.76	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	68	288	55	27	10	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.4%	9.6%	3.3%	4.81	4.88	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	62	260	49	25	9	100%	6.2	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	3.5%	4.96	5.06	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	38	160	31	15	5	100%	6.3	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.78	4.77	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	50	211	41	19	7	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.2%	10.1%	3.2%	4.77	4.78	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	56	236	46	22	8	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.80	4.84	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	56	236	45	22	8	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.4%	9.6%	3.5%	4.89	4.96	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	53	224	42	22	8	100%	5.9	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	3.7%	5.05	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	253	1068	204	100	36	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.4%	9.7%	3.4%	4.86	4.53	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	79	28	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.4%	9.7%	3.4%	4.86	4.53	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		49	41	189	812	157	80	21	84%	3.9	19.3%	9.9%	9.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.16	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	858	166	85	22	84%	3.9	19.3%	9.9%	9.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.16	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 119 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.39 (+0.74)K% 21.9% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.94%	—	×0.810	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.100	7.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.77%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.32%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 46 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.84 (+0.72)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.62%	—	×0.770	19.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.84%	—	×1.150	12.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷1.229	×1.250	1.50%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 22 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.89 (+1.36)K% 35.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.42%	—	×0.740	26.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×1.180	17.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷0.899	×1.300	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sebastian Gongora (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.72	19.2%	10.0%	241	-0.07	—	—	—
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	83
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	82
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	81
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	81
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	80
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	80
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	79
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	78
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	78
Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	14.5%	8.7%	2.5%	.270	4.72	20.7%	10.2%	189	+0.40	4.16	291	78
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	78
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	77
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	77
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	77
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	77
Ixan Henderson L 2024 · 3.77 FIP	22	SP-	3.77	18.1%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	3.27	20.4%	9.9%	132	-0.50	3.27	236	76
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	76
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	18.9%	9.4%	1.23	4.77
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48