Sebastian Gongora
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.4
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%11.9%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 22 | 20 | 68 | 299 | 86 | 36 | 4 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.5% | 5.00 | 3.87 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 2 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 65 | 31 | 8 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 78 | 322 | 78 | 31 | 8 | 24.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.13 | 3.90 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 68 | 30 | 8 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 68 | 29 | 8 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 68 | 29 | 8 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 67 | 29 | 8 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 65 | 28 | 8 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 62 | 28 | 8 | 23.0% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 27 | 8 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 53 | 26 | 8 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 22 | 79 | 340 | 80 | 42 | 5 | 23.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | 4.65 | 3.41 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 55 | 200 | 857 | 202 | 106 | 13 | 23.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | 4.65 | 3.41 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sebastian Gongora (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.30 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 207 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 95 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 95 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 94 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 93 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 90 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.07 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .281 | 3.14 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 42 | -0.93 | 3.14 | 151 | 90 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 90 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 89 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 88 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 87 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.57 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.32 | 3.57 | 146 | 87 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 87 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | .289 | 3.60 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 60 | -1.01 | 3.60 | 136 | 87 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 87 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 86 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.43 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.2% | .318 | 4.79 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 91 | +1.36 | 3.43 | 152 | 86 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.67 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 148 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 86 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 85 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||