Jay Driver

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+CLE	40	47	1.53	2.87	26.0%	11.3%	—	K 20.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.62
2025	23	A+CLE	34	46	4.11	3.30	23.7%	13.0%	—	K 18.2% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.12
2026	24	MIX2 levels	46	64	4.52	4.25	26.1%	13.7%	—	K 21.1% · BB 15.3% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	25	MLBCLE	67	70	5.51	5.51	19.4%	16.2%	-0.7
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCLE	30	31	5.38	5.37	20.0%	15.4%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCLE	42	44	5.32	5.33	20.3%	15.0%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsKevin Kopps (age 25) · Jeff Ames (age 25) · Nolan Riggs (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%19.4%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%3.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	51	16	11	2	0%	1.1	31.4%	21.6%	9.8%	3.9%	7.45	5.34	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	10	51	16	11	2	0%	1.1	31.4%	21.6%	9.8%	3.9%	7.45	5.89	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	40	0	47	204	53	23	2	0%	1.2	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	1.0%	1.53	3.62	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	40	0	47	204	53	23	2	0%	1.2	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	1.0%	1.53	3.62	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	40	0	47	204	53	23	2	0%	1.2	26.0%	11.3%	14.7%	1.0%	1.53	2.87	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	207	49	27	2	0%	1.4	18.2%	15.0%	3.2%	1.2%	4.11	4.12	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	207	49	27	2	0%	1.4	18.2%	15.0%	3.2%	1.2%	4.11	4.12	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	207	49	27	2	0%	1.4	23.7%	13.0%	10.6%	1.0%	4.11	3.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	64	284	74	39	8	0%	1.4	21.1%	15.3%	5.8%	3.4%	4.52	5.14	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	64	284	74	39	8	0%	1.4	21.1%	15.3%	5.8%	3.4%	4.52	5.14	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	64	284	74	39	8	0%	1.4	26.1%	13.7%	12.3%	2.8%	4.52	4.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CLE	67	0	70	296	57	48	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.51	5.51	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	67	0	70	296	59	46	9	0%	1.0	20.0%	15.4%	4.6%	3.0%	5.38	5.37	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66	0	69	291	59	44	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	15.0%	5.2%	3.0%	5.32	5.33	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CLE	64	0	67	282	57	42	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	14.9%	5.4%	3.1%	5.32	5.36	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	270	54	40	9	0%	1.0	20.1%	15.0%	5.2%	3.3%	5.40	5.47	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	30	0	31	131	26	20	4	0%	1.0	20.0%	15.4%	4.6%	3.0%	5.38	5.37	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CLE	42	0	44	186	38	28	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	15.0%	5.2%	3.0%	5.32	5.33	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CLE	49	0	51	215	44	32	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	14.9%	5.4%	3.1%	5.32	5.36	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CLE	50	0	52	220	44	33	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	15.0%	5.2%	3.3%	5.40	5.47	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	151	112	23	0%	1.0	20.2%	15.0%	5.1%	3.1%	5.35	5.00	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	126	26	0%	1.1	20.2%	15.0%	5.1%	3.1%	5.35	5.00	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		129	0	166	746	155	112	16	0%	1.3	20.7%	15.0%	5.7%	2.2%	3.73	4.45	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	897	186	135	20	0%	1.3	20.7%	15.0%	5.7%	2.2%	3.73	4.45	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Driver (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	19.4%	16.2%	3.0%	—	5.35	20.2%	5.1%	206	-0.16	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	90
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	89
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	88
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	86
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	86
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	85
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	85
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	85
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	85
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	84
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	84
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	84
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	84
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	83
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	83
Jairo Díaz R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.281	3.33	20.2%	10.3%	18	-1.20	2.99	190	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	20.0%	15.3%	1.18	5.39
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*