Jacob Roberts — OGILVIE

Jacob Roberts P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%24.8%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP31

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	43	0	45	188	72	33	1	0%	1.0	28.9%	20.4%	8.5%	0.7%	2.42	3.61	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	43	0	45	188	72	33	1	0%	1.0	28.9%	20.4%	8.5%	0.7%	2.42	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	20	0	22	95	35	15	0	0%	1.1	36.8%	15.8%	21.1%	0.0%	2.01	1.99	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	23	0	22	93	37	18	1	0%	1.0	39.8%	19.4%	20.4%	1.1%	2.82	2.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	42	0	44	187	47	23	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	12.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.53	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	18	0	19	80	20	10	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	12.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	80	20	10	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	12.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.15	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	105	21	0%	1.1	25.0%	12.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		43	0	45	188	54	38	1	0%	1.0	28.9%	20.4%	8.5%	0.7%	2.42	3.61	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		193	0	200	842	244	172	6	0%	1.0	28.9%	20.4%	8.5%	0.7%	2.42	3.61	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Roberts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	24.8%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.53	25.0%	12.8%	44	-0.21	—	—	—
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	89
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	88
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	88
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	88
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	88
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	87
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	86
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	86
Zac Leigh R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	28.5%	12.3%	2.6%	.270	4.45	21.6%	5.7%	130	+0.75	3.70	201	86
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	86
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	86
Zack Jones R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	24	SU	3.57	23.9%	14.0%	1.3%	.280	3.64	28.1%	10.9%	57	+0.07	2.57	109	86
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	85
Cameron Junker R 2022 · 4.36 FIP	24	SU	4.36	23.6%	13.1%	2.9%	.279	4.96	13.9%	-2.4%	70	+0.60	4.04	147	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	24.9%	12.8%	1.14	4.66
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41