Daiverson Gutierrez
C Brooklyn Cyclones| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A/ROKNYM | 134 | .259/.398/.435 | 2 | 1 | 78 | — | .215/.316/.357 |
| 2025 | 19 | ANYM | 395 | .242/.366/.309 | 4 | 6 | 75 | — | .229/.327/.293 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+NYM | 424 | .198/.302/.317 | 8 | 5 | 37 | — | .161/.240/.255 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBNYM | 1 | .189/.268/.277 | 0 | 0 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 22 | MLBNYM | 128 | .196/.276/.297 | 2 | 1 | 68 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 23 | MLBNYM | 201 | .201/.281/.311 | 4 | 2 | 73 | 0.2 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets Blue | — | 211 | 172 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 36 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 321 | 244 | 565 | 58 | 221 | 17 | 10 | 274 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 27 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 111 | 222 | 333 | 111 | 167 | 33 | 0 | 143 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 107 | 81 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 309 | 472 | 506 | 978 | 198 | 324 | 8 | 15 | 435 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 395 | 327 | 79 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 58 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 242 | 366 | 309 | 675 | 67 | 279 | 15 | 13 | 317 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 424 | 363 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 70 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 198 | 302 | 317 | 619 | 118 | 221 | 17 | 9 | 285 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 211 | 181 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 116 | 234 | 149 | 384 | 33 | 136 | 21 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 27 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 74 | 148 | 222 | 74 | 152 | 44 | 0 | 102 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 107 | 88 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 377 | 409 | 786 | 159 | 256 | 12 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 395 | 341 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 74 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 229 | 327 | 293 | 621 | 65 | 268 | 19 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 424 | 380 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 92 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 161 | 240 | 255 | 496 | 95 | 186 | 22 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 211 | 181 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 116 | 234 | 149 | 384 | 33 | 146 | 21 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets Blue | — | 211 | 172 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 36 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 321 | 244 | 565 | 58 | 221 | 17 | 10 | 274 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 134 | 115 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 316 | 348 | 664 | 139 | 250 | 19 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 134 | 108 | 28 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 259 | 398 | 435 | 834 | 176 | 292 | 13 | 12 | 376 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 395 | 341 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 74 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 229 | 327 | 293 | 621 | 65 | 277 | 19 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 395 | 327 | 79 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 58 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 242 | 366 | 309 | 675 | 67 | 279 | 15 | 13 | 317 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 424 | 380 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 92 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 161 | 240 | 255 | 496 | 95 | 189 | 22 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 424 | 363 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 70 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 198 | 302 | 317 | 619 | 118 | 221 | 17 | 9 | 285 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 211 | 181 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 116 | 234 | 149 | 384 | 33 | 136 | 21 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 134 | 115 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 316 | 348 | 664 | 139 | 235 | 19 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 395 | 342 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 74 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 228 | 327 | 292 | 620 | 64 | 268 | 19 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 424 | 381 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 92 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 160 | 240 | 255 | 495 | 94 | 186 | 22 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 134 | 115 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 316 | 348 | 664 | 139 | 235 | 19 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 395 | 342 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 74 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 228 | 327 | 292 | 620 | 64 | 268 | 19 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 424 | 381 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 92 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 160 | 240 | 255 | 495 | 94 | 186 | 22 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | NYM | 0% | 534 | 477 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 107 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 194 | 273 | 285 | 558 | 90 | 232 | 20 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -25 | -0 | +1 | +10 | +12 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | NYM | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 268 | 277 | 545 | 88 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 60 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | NYM | 35% | 369 | 329 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 73 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 202 | 281 | 305 | 587 | 104 | 236 | 20 | 8 | 269 | 68 | -14 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | NYM | 49% | 414 | 369 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 80 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 207 | 287 | 319 | 606 | 113 | 239 | 19 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -13 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYM | 53% | 445 | 397 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 86 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 291 | 329 | 619 | 118 | 242 | 19 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -12 | +0 | +1 | +8 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYM | 55% | 445 | 397 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 86 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 213 | 293 | 335 | 628 | 122 | 245 | 19 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -11 | +0 | +1 | +8 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 56% | 445 | 397 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 87 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 294 | 338 | 633 | 124 | 247 | 20 | 8 | 287 | 80 | -10 | +0 | +1 | +8 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYM | 55% | 445 | 397 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 88 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 213 | 293 | 335 | 629 | 122 | 246 | 20 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -11 | +0 | +1 | +8 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYM | 55% | 445 | 398 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 89 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 211 | 291 | 331 | 622 | 119 | 245 | 20 | 8 | 283 | 77 | -12 | -0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYM | 53% | 445 | 398 | 82 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 90 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 209 | 288 | 324 | 613 | 115 | 244 | 20 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -13 | -0 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYM | 53% | 445 | 398 | 82 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 91 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 285 | 316 | 601 | 111 | 242 | 20 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -15 | -0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | NYM | 35% | 128 | 114 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 276 | 297 | 573 | 101 | 228 | 20 | 8 | 263 | 68 | -5 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | NYM | 49% | 201 | 179 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 281 | 311 | 592 | 110 | 231 | 19 | 7 | 270 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYM | 53% | 235 | 210 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 45 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 204 | 285 | 320 | 605 | 116 | 235 | 19 | 8 | 276 | 77 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYM | 55% | 244 | 218 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 288 | 326 | 614 | 119 | 237 | 19 | 8 | 279 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 56% | 248 | 221 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 289 | 329 | 618 | 121 | 239 | 19 | 8 | 281 | 80 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYM | 55% | 245 | 218 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 288 | 327 | 615 | 120 | 238 | 20 | 8 | 279 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYM | 55% | 243 | 217 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 286 | 322 | 608 | 117 | 237 | 20 | 8 | 277 | 77 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYM | 53% | 237 | 211 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 283 | 316 | 599 | 113 | 236 | 20 | 8 | 273 | 75 | -7 | -0 | -0 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYM | 53% | 234 | 209 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 280 | 308 | 587 | 108 | 234 | 21 | 8 | 269 | 72 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2015 | 1797 | 367 | 67 | 5 | 43 | 158 | 396 | 43 | 17 | 9 | 204 | 284 | 319 | 603 | 115 | 237 | 20 | 8 | 275 | 69 | -57 | -0 | +2 | +36 | +44 | 2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 119 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 51 | 128 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 205 | 286 | 322 | 608 | 117 | 238 | 20 | 8 | 275 | 69 | -19 | -0 | +1 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5272 | 4685 | 948 | 180 | 10 | 100 | 408 | 1049 | 139 | 49 | 25 | 202 | 286 | 309 | 595 | 107 | 238 | 20 | 8 | 271 | 69 | -123 | -0 | +5 | +73 | +89 | 4.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 116 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 50 | 129 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 201 | 284 | 304 | 588 | 104 | 236 | 20 | 8 | 271 | 69 | -19 | -0 | +1 | +12 | +14 | 0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 424 PAwOBA .280 → .223 (−58)K% 16.5% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.51% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 21.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.54% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 2.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.968 | ×1.027 | 13.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.968 | ×1.027 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.968 | ×1.027 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.47% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .280 → .223; ISO .118 → .102; BABIP .221 → .186. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASt. Lucie Mets · 395 PAwOBA .312 → .279 (−32)K% 14.7% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.68% | ÷1.060 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.16% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.16% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×1.030 | 23.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.72% | ÷0.903 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.030 | 3.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.43% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 95, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 112, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .312 → .279; ISO .067 → .065; BABIP .279 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Mets · 107 PAwOBA .429 → .330 (−99)K% 8.4% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.41% | ÷0.973 | ×1.440 | — | — | 12.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.95% | ÷1.068 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.41% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 6.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.06% | ÷0.979 | ×0.820 | ×0.981 | ×1.008 | 14.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.89% | ÷0.952 | ×0.720 | ×0.981 | ×1.008 | 10.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.981 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.24% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .429 → .330; ISO .198 → .164; BABIP .324 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 27 PAwOBA .138 → .102 (−36)K% 33.3% → 45.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 45.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 15.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.826 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .138 → .102; ISO .111 → .082; BABIP .167 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Mets Blue · 211 PAwOBA .270 → .178 (−92)K% 17.1% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.06% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.43% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.16% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 4.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.12% | ÷1.074 | ×0.680 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 11.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 1.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.868 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.80% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 115, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .270 → .178; ISO .058 → .035; BABIP .221 → .136. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).