Esmil Valencia

CF Beloit Sky Carp

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 182 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP45ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	AMIA	442	.279/.339/.394	8	64	66	—	.235/.284/.328
2026	20	A+MIA	200	.209/.265/.385	6	8	38	—	.168/.214/.308
2026	20	AMIA	61	.236/.300/.364	1	7	37	—	.179/.233/.286
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBMIA	1	.206/.251/.307	0	0	61	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	22	MLBMIA	109	.211/.259/.323	2	6	68	-0.0
2029PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIA	194	.215/.265/.334	4	10	73	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed65

ISO62

Z-Con%59

K%52

Whiff%45

wRC+17

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJohan Rojas (age 22) · Tyler Goeddel (age 21) · Jorge Mateo (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .251 / .307

PA1

HR0

K%27

BB%4

BABIP271

ISO107

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	183	48	9	4	2	19	31	6	11	5	262	351	388	739	126	301	15	9	330	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	160	149	43	3	2	2	5	28	5	16	5	289	333	376	709	87	342	18	3	319	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	398	111	14	4	8	30	99	7	64	19	279	339	394	734	116	347	22	7	326	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	200	182	38	12	1	6	10	47	4	8	4	209	265	385	650	176	241	24	5	283	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	61	55	13	2	1	1	4	20	1	7	5	236	300	364	664	127	343	33	7	294	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	188	33	6	3	1	14	37	6	11	5	176	255	255	510	80	202	18	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	151	33	2	1	1	3	40	5	16	5	219	258	265	523	46	287	25	2	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	408	96	12	4	6	21	133	7	64	19	235	284	328	613	93	315	30	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	200	185	31	9	1	5	7	60	4	8	4	168	214	308	522	141	204	30	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	61	56	10	1	1	1	3	27	1	7	5	179	233	286	519	107	312	44	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	188	33	6	3	1	14	37	6	11	5	176	255	255	510	80	209	18	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	183	48	9	4	2	19	31	6	11	5	262	351	388	739	126	301	15	9	330	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	151	33	2	1	1	3	40	5	16	5	219	258	265	523	46	288	25	2	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	160	149	43	3	2	2	5	28	5	16	5	289	333	376	709	87	342	18	3	319	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	408	96	12	4	6	21	133	7	64	19	235	284	328	613	93	327	30	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	398	111	14	4	8	30	99	7	64	19	279	339	394	734	116	347	22	7	326	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	261	241	42	11	2	5	10	87	5	15	9	174	223	299	521	124	240	33	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	261	237	51	14	2	7	14	67	5	15	9	215	273	380	653	165	262	26	5	286	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	189	33	6	3	1	14	37	6	11	5	175	255	254	509	79	202	18	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	151	33	2	1	1	3	40	5	16	5	219	258	265	523	46	287	25	2	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	411	96	12	4	6	21	133	7	64	19	234	284	326	610	92	315	30	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	261	244	42	11	2	5	10	87	5	15	9	172	223	295	518	123	229	33	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	151	33	2	1	1	3	40	5	16	5	219	258	265	523	46	287	25	2	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	411	96	12	4	6	21	133	7	64	19	234	284	326	610	92	315	30	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	261	244	42	11	2	5	10	87	5	15	9	172	223	295	518	123	229	33	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	375	351	74	13	3	6	16	104	5	18	7	212	258	321	578	108	280	28	4	259	61	-17	+1	+2	+1	+8	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	206	251	307	558	101	271	0	0	250	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	35%	314	292	63	11	2	6	15	84	4	16	6	218	266	338	603	120	281	27	5	269	68	-12	+1	+1	+1	+7	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	49%	400	371	83	15	3	9	20	105	6	20	7	222	271	349	620	127	282	26	5	276	73	-13	+1	+2	+1	+9	0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	457	424	95	17	3	11	24	119	6	23	8	225	276	356	632	131	283	26	5	281	77	-13	+1	+2	+2	+10	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	488	452	102	18	3	12	26	125	7	25	9	226	279	360	639	134	284	26	5	285	79	-12	+1	+2	+2	+11	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	506	466	105	19	3	12	28	129	7	25	9	227	281	363	644	135	284	25	6	286	80	-12	+1	+2	+2	+11	0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	513	472	106	19	3	12	29	132	7	25	9	226	280	360	640	134	284	26	6	285	79	-13	+1	+2	+2	+11	0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	512	471	106	19	3	12	29	133	7	23	9	224	278	356	634	131	283	26	6	283	77	-14	+1	+2	+2	+11	0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	505	466	104	19	3	12	28	132	6	19	8	222	276	350	625	128	282	26	6	279	75	-15	+1	+1	+2	+11	-0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	496	460	101	18	3	11	27	131	6	16	7	219	272	343	615	123	280	26	5	275	72	-16	+0	+0	+2	+11	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	35%	109	101	22	4	1	2	5	29	2	6	2	211	259	323	582	112	272	27	5	260	68	-4	+0	+1	+0	+2	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	49%	194	179	39	7	1	4	10	51	3	10	4	215	265	334	598	119	273	26	5	267	73	-6	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	241	224	48	8	2	5	12	63	3	12	4	217	269	340	609	123	274	26	5	272	77	-7	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	267	247	54	9	2	6	14	69	4	13	5	219	272	344	616	126	275	26	5	275	79	-7	+1	+1	+1	+6	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	282	260	58	10	2	7	16	72	4	14	5	219	274	346	620	127	275	26	6	277	80	-7	+1	+1	+1	+6	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	282	260	58	10	2	7	16	72	4	14	5	219	273	344	617	126	274	26	6	276	79	-7	+1	+1	+1	+6	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	280	258	57	10	2	6	16	73	4	12	5	217	271	340	611	123	274	26	6	273	77	-8	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	269	249	54	9	2	6	15	70	3	10	4	215	269	335	603	120	273	26	6	270	75	-8	+0	+1	+1	+6	-0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	261	242	51	9	1	5	14	69	3	8	4	212	265	328	593	116	271	26	5	266	72	-9	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2185	2020	441	76	15	48	118	568	30	99	38	218	272	342	614	124	278	26	5	272	70	-62	+5	+8	+8	+47	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	131	23	4	14	35	169	9	29	11	218	271	339	611	121	278	26	5	272	70	-18	+1	+2	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5516	5096	1119	195	38	114	285	1456	83	310	115	220	272	340	612	120	282	26	5	272	70	-131	+10	+16	+16	+96	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	131	23	4	13	34	172	10	37	14	218	272	334	606	116	281	26	5	272	70	-19	+1	+2	+2	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Billy Maloney'01-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,762 PA	4.2	2,762	6	155	235*	299*	373*	+5	+9	6.9	6.9
/162	664	1	37	+1.1	+2.1	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#4Brian Hunter'94-'03 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,659 PA	5.5	3,659	25	260	252*	300*	337*	+1	+13	2.0	3.6
/162	664	5	47	+0.2	+2.4	0.4	pk7: 5
#5Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Chuck Carr'90-'97 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,914 PA	2.9	1,914	13	144	242*	306*	331*	+6	+20	2.6	2.6
/162	664	5	50	+2.1	+7.1	0.9	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.3	2,186	51	100	225	274	356	+8	+10	1.2	1.2
/162	664	16	30	+2.4	+3.0	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmil Valencia (OGILVIE)	21	50	45	62	42	211/255/318	107	280	4	12	28%	4%	61	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Rojas 2023 · AA	22	44→54	41→45	63→65	42	216/263/320	104	271	8	35	23%	5%	63	-1.3	248/290/352	104	312	8	37	22%	5%	81	-0.1	260/302/359	100	326	7	41	21%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	44→52	41→45	59→55	40	211/262/313	103	297	7	20	30%	6%	61	-1.5	227/284/341	114	305	9	18	27%	7%	76	-0.4	229/290/345	116	300	9	18	25%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Jorge Mateo 2017 · A	22	45→50	40→50	61→65	39	214/259/313	98	298	6	34	30%	5%	60	-1.6	205/248/327	122	300	8	28	33%	5%	59	-1.6	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Tito Polo 2016 · A	21	44→54	38→45	56→60	41	208/264/293	85	276	5	26	26%	5%	58	-1.7	231/284/340	109	306	10	27	27%	5%	77	-0.3	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Noel Cuevas 2014 · A	22	47→52	43→45	56→55	41	231/276/347	116	293	10	24	24%	5%	75	-0.5	229/266/325	96	296	7	17	24%	4%	65	-1.2	254/287/363	108	316	8	12	22%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	47→51	39→40	65	44	225/283/314	88	297	6	35	25%	6%	70	-0.9	223/278/313	90	298	6	34	25%	6%	68	-1.0	218/272/304	87	291	6	36	26%	6%	61	-1.2
✕Rymer Liriano 2012 · A	21	48→53	44→45	57→55	40	234/282/359	125	315	11	28	29%	6%	80	-0.2	243/294/365	122	337	10	23	29%	6%	86	+0.3	242/303/365	123	343	11	20	31%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Abiatal Avelino 2016 · A	21	49→54	38→45	55	43	231/275/309	78	288	5	28	21%	5%	65	-1.2	243/285/340	97	302	7	19	21%	5%	76	-0.4	253/294/359	106	312	9	19	21%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Luisangel Acuña 2023 · AA	21	48→58	44→45	58→60	44	232/293/349	117	320	12	31	30%	8%	82	-0.0	255/300/354	99	326	8	35	23%	6%	85	+0.2	262/305/352	89	327	6	40	21%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Jay Allen II 2024 · A	21	41→47	39→45	58→55	42	193/283/280	87	299	7	32	35%	8%	64	-1.3	200/286/296	96	279	9	24	30%	8%	69	-0.9	202/286/304	103	275	11	24	29%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Liover Peguero 2023 · AA	22	48→49	43→45	56→55	38	232/271/342	110	314	10	23	29%	5%	72	-0.7	225/272/350	125	297	13	18	28%	6%	74	-0.5	219/270/346	127	285	14	18	28%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Cameron Cauley 2024 · A	21	41→48	42→50	59→60	38	192/256/294	102	318	9	28	40%	8%	56	-1.9	207/261/343	136	303	14	27	34%	7%	68	-1.0	212/268/359	147	288	15	31	31%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Ryan Brett 2013 · A	21	51→58	39→45	59→60	45	241/287/334	93	297	6	27	20%	6%	76	-0.4	253/293/362	109	307	8	23	20%	5%	84	+0.2	256/293/368	112	307	9	21	19%	4%	82	+0.0
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	48→53	44→50	61→55	46	231/292/359	128	308	9	28	27%	8%	84	+0.1	243/298/376	133	291	13	16	20%	7%	90	+0.6	248/309/365	117	296	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Delino DeShields 2013 · A	20	47→56	42→45	61→65	45	227/292/330	103	308	9	36	28%	8%	77	-0.3	238/310/344	106	319	7	37	26%	8%	87	+0.4	239/317/344	105	318	6	38	24%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Darell Hernaiz 2023 · AA	21	47→57	42→45	55→50	42	232/279/335	104	289	10	21	23%	5%	73	-0.6	259/311/362	103	308	8	14	18%	6%	91	+0.7	268/325/364	96	311	7	12	15%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Maximo Acosta 2024 · A	21	44→53	42→45	52→55	40	215/260/315	99	285	9	23	28%	5%	61	-1.5	215/271/324	109	280	11	26	26%	6%	68	-1.0	204/266/310	107	265	11	32	27%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→49	42→50	57→50	43	224/279/341	116	300	8	15	27%	6%	74	-0.5	220/277/337	117	289	10	12	26%	6%	73	-0.6	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Sean Henry 2007 · A	21	41→51	45→50	56→55	43	206/261/329	123	273	12	24	28%	7%	65	-1.2	243/296/370	127	297	11	17	21%	6%	88	+0.4	251/305/379	128	300	11	17	19%	6%	91	+0.6
✕Kyren Paris 2023 · AA	21	44→49	45	60	43	203/291/336	132	329	12	27	38%	9%	79	-0.2	201/289/328	127	317	13	30	37%	10%	77	-0.3	189/282/319	130	294	14	35	37%	10%	71	-0.5

Esmil Valencia

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps