Gian ZapataOF ACL D-backs
Age 20 L/L 6'4" / 195 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj PA
wRC+†59
AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .266 / .306
PA78
HR2
K%31
BB%8
ISO114
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -3.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -0.5 runs (Positional adjustment)-0POSREP: +2.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.30.50.70.70.60.4+$19M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER60
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
DEFENSE45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.9M+$0.3M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2033Arb-1$1M+0.7$2M+$1.0M
2034Arb-2$2M+0.6$1M+$0.6M
2035Arb-3$2M+0.4$0.8M+$0.0M
Totals $8M $8M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Arizona Black — 165141 23506 12707 54 163263326589 163243 427 250 50 — — — — — —
202317 ROKDSL Arizona Black — 165134 34909 19487 54 254375522897 269305 2912 383 151 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL D-backs — 153129 17511 14717 76 132253209463 78267 469 206 16 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL D-backs — 153117 25811 26467 76 214387325711 111329 3017 332 112 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL D-backs — 8777 14212 8380 50 182259312571 130308 449 246 46 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL D-backs — 8774 21322 11240 50 284376459836 176380 2813 363 136 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season
202620 MLBARI — 7871 14302 6241 10 197269324593 127269 318 262 59 -4 +0 -0 -0 +2 -0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721 MLBARI 34% 166150 31614 13502 31 207279340619 133273 308 277 70 -6 +0 -0 -1 +5 -0.2
202822 MLBARI 48% 299269 561028 24874 51 208283349632 141276 298 288 78 -7 +1 -1 -2 +8 -0.1
202923 MLBARI 54% 392352 7614212 311126 62 216290369660 153278 298 295 84 -7 +0 -1 -2 +11 0.1
203024 MLBARI 55% 455409 9016315 371296 72 220294384678 164280 288 300 88 -6 +1 -1 -3 +13 0.3
203125 MLBARI 56% 491441 9817317 401397 82 222297390687 168280 288 304 91 -5 +1 -1 -3 +14 0.5
203226 MLBARI 56% 511457 10218318 421457 82 223298394692 171280 288 306 93 -4 +1 -1 -3 +14 0.7
203327 MLBARI 55% 520464 10318318 431488 82 222299390689 168280 288 306 93 -4 +1 -1 -3 +15 0.7
203428 MLBARI 55% 521466 10318318 431497 82 221297388685 167279 298 305 92 -5 +1 -2 -3 +15 0.6
203529 MLBARI 53% 515460 10218318 431487 82 222298391689 170278 298 303 90 -6 +1 -3 -3 +15 0.4
203630 MLBARI 57% 507452 9817317 431477 72 217295381675 164277 298 301 88 -7 +1 -4 -3 +14 0.2
202721 MLBARI 34% 5752 10201 4171 10 192263288552 96275 307 269 64 -2 +0 -0 -0 +2 -0.1
202822 MLBARI 48% 145130 28514 12422 21 215292362653 146278 298 280 72 -5 +0 -0 -1 +4 -0.2
202923 MLBARI 54% 213191 42817 17613 31 220294382676 162280 298 287 78 -5 +0 -1 -1 +6 -0.1
203024 MLBARI 55% 252226 50928 20724 41 221296385681 164282 298 293 82 -5 +0 -1 -2 +7 0.0
203125 MLBARI 56% 275247 5610210 22784 41 227300405705 178282 288 296 85 -5 +0 -1 -2 +8 0.1
203226 MLBARI 56% 287258 5710210 23814 51 221295391686 171282 288 299 87 -4 +1 -1 -2 +8 0.2
203327 MLBARI 55% 288258 5710210 24824 51 221297391689 171282 288 299 87 -4 +1 -1 -2 +8 0.2
203428 MLBARI 55% 286256 5710210 24824 41 223299395694 172281 298 298 86 -5 +0 -1 -2 +8 0.1
203529 MLBARI 53% 275246 5610210 23794 41 228304407711 179281 298 296 85 -5 +0 -2 -2 +8 0.0
203630 MLBARI 57% 289259 5710210 24844 41 220296390686 170279 298 293 82 -6 +0 -2 -2 +8 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 23672123 470841680 19367834 369 221297389686 168284 298 294 83 -46 +4 -9 -14 +67 0.2
/ 162G— — 650583 12923422 531869 102 221296388683 166284 298 294 83 -13 +1 -2 -4 +18 0.1
Career— — 48604338 92716728156 399145776 8628 214291373664 159280 308 295 84 -90 +6 -17 -29 +138 0.8
/ 162G— — 650580 12422421 5319510 124 214290374665 160280 308 295 84 -12 +1 -2 -4 +18 0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Arizona Black — 165134 34909 19487 54 254375522897 269305 2912 383 151 +10 -1 — — +5 1.4
202418 ROKACL D-backs — 153117 25811 26467 76 214387325711 111329 3017 332 112 +2 -1 — — +4 0.6
202519 ROKACL D-backs — 8774 21322 11240 50 284376459836 176380 2813 363 136 +4 +1 — — +2 0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17
career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA
82,7118155233305399-12-134.14.5
/1626642013-2.9-3.21.0pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21
career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA
83,2209698241309409-34-283.84.4
/1626642020-7.1-5.80.8pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA
62,3474631241304367-5+73.83.8
/162664139-1.3+1.91.1pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons
62,4458039219291381-15-122.32.4
/1626642210-4.0-3.30.6pk7: 2
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA
61,5065415234298417-6-181.71.7
/162664247-2.8-8.10.8pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA
71,5644513236292400-11-61.31.3
/162664196-4.5-2.50.6pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA
71,740625242294417-17-200.60.6
/162664242-6.5-7.60.2pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Gian Zapata (OGILVIE) 20 20→30 40→60 50→45 50 193/266/306 113269 21 31% 8% 59 -0.1 ————————— —————————
✕Iverson Leonardo
2023 · A 		21 37 44→50 49→50 39 187/256/305 118276 129 35% 7% 54 -1.4 197/279/292 95352 78 42% 9% 60 -1.0 146/272/221753593452%12%39-0.5
✕Jon Waltenbury
2008 · A 		20 41 40→55 45→40 43 201/266/292 91286 85 31% 7% 54 -1.4 218/268/325 107288 93 26% 6% 63 -0.9 216/265/3211052819126%6%56-0.8
✕Carter Jensen
2023 · A 		20 35→45 42→55 45→50 44 176/254/278 102265 97 35% 9% 46 -2.0 196/287/331 135277 149 32% 11% 73 -0.1 224/298/39617229121829%9%92+0.9
✕Enmanuel Valdez
2019 · A 		20 39→44 42→55 49→45 45 192/258/305 112251 97 27% 7% 54 -1.4 191/244/308 117258 137 30% 6% 49 -1.8 220/285/39817826324826%8%87+0.7
✕Alexander Canario
2019 · A 		19 41→34 42→60 47→50 44 201/268/307 106272 1012 29% 7% 59 -1.1 209/264/358 149293 1811 34% 6% 70 -0.3 205/276/414209281281337%8%87+0.5
✕Argenis Aldazoro
2013 · A 		20 35 40→55 48→50 39 177/227/273 96239 78 28% 5% 32 -3.0 204/239/314 110271 108 28% 4% 46 -2.0 218/245/34112327912927%4%53-0.5
✕Carlos Rodriguez
2023 · A 		20 38 39→45 47→45 45 181/267/268 87282 76 36% 9% 49 -1.8 190/265/267 77299 56 35% 9% 47 -1.9 170/253/254842537233%9%37-1.0
✕Michaelangel Trinidad
2009 · A 		20 42 41→60 45→40 45 201/287/303 102284 95 30% 8% 66 -0.6 218/274/380 162265 204 25% 6% 81 +0.4 222/283/42220024929025%6%98+0.6
✕Carlos Jimenez
2022 · A 		19 38→43 42→55 53→50 44 188/268/290 102278 1011 34% 8% 55 -1.4 201/284/321 120321 1116 37% 9% 69 -0.4 229/308/399169310211831%9%95+0.9
●Jack Suwinski
2018 · A 		20 38→42 39→60 44→50 37 186/243/266 79286 65 36% 6% 37 -2.7 190/249/297 107285 105 35% 7% 48 -1.9 208/305/416207281281034%11%100+1.5
✕Jose Quero
2019 · A 		20 38 39→40 44→30 44 188/251/267 79246 73 26% 7% 40 -2.4 205/261/315 110263 106 25% 7% 57 -1.2 196/247/34414822515421%6%63-0.2
●Parker Meadows
2021 · A 		21 40→47 42→60 46→55 43 200/256/299 99268 109 28% 7% 51 -1.7 204/265/350 146271 1713 30% 7% 69 -0.4 226/293/417190275232126%8%95+1.4
●Nick Pratto
2019 · A 		20 40→45 42→60 50 36 195/243/300 104298 1012 37% 6% 46 -2.0 187/246/328 141299 1612 41% 7% 55 -1.4 198/290/39119328624737%10%89+0.9
✕Wilmer Oberto
2013 · A 		20 41 42→50 43→45 46 202/280/307 105255 107 24% 7% 65 -0.7 209/267/324 115282 114 28% 6% 63 -0.9 200/250/32112127112030%5%52-0.5
●Will Benson
2019 · A 		21 29→39 46→55 46→55 43 157/251/275 119254 159 42% 10% 45 -2.1 179/263/337 158277 2014 40% 10% 66 -0.6 225/329/410185318192632%12%109+1.7
✕Lewin Díaz
2017 · A 		20 40→44 47→60 49→30 41 208/259/346 137267 143 28% 6% 65 -0.7 213/247/339 126265 132 25% 4% 57 -1.2 211/261/42121023929126%5%85+0.6
✕Izaac Pacheco
2023 · A 		20 40→39 42→55 47→45 41 197/258/304 107294 98 35% 7% 53 -1.5 182/243/308 126303 145 42% 7% 49 -1.8 175/248/34116629820346%8%58-0.6
✕Jhostynxon Garcia
2023 · A 		20 37→41 41→55 48→50 44 180/262/280 101277 88 36% 9% 50 -1.8 198/258/332 134287 1410 34% 6% 61 -1.0 217/272/375157286211031%5%75+0.0
✕Brian Sanchez
2016 · A 		20 37 41→60 47→45 34 184/240/286 102293 97 39% 5% 41 -2.3 201/258/330 129303 144 36% 6% 60 -1.0 203/267/35815529218035%7%70-0.1
✕Jhonkensy Noel
2021 · A 		20 41→40 44→55 47→45 41 205/267/321 116274 127 29% 6% 62 -0.9 215/265/384 169280 225 31% 5% 78 +0.2 194/257/37818324425132%6%70-0.3