Gian Zapata

OF ACL D-backs
Age 21 L/L 6'4" / 195 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202317ROKDSL Arizona B…165.254/.375/.5229543—.144/.256/.266
202418ROKARI153.214/.387/.3251732—.141/.267/.219
202519ROKARI87.284/.376/.4592551—.179/.247/.308
2027PROJMLE21MLBARI197.186/.260/.2853355-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBARI24.198/.272/.3140062-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk
Speed96
ISO87
wRC+71
wOBA63
BB%43
Z-Con%31
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%
CompsCole Roederer (age 21) · Jared Walker (age 21) · Iverson Leonardo (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj PA
wRC+†55
AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .258 / .283
PA34
HR0
K%33
BB%8
ISO99
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -0.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-0POSREP: +0.7 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Arizona Black — 165134 34909 19487 54 254375522897 269305 2912 383 43 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL D-backs — 153117 25811 26467 76 214387325711 111329 3017 332 32 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL D-backs — 8774 21322 11240 50 284376459836 176380 2813 363 51 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Black — 165139 20504 14597 54 144256266522 122180 368 232 43 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 153128 18511 15697 76 141267219485 78244 4510 215 32 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 8778 14212 7360 50 179247308555 128286 418 244 51 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Black — 165139 20504 14597 54 144256266522 122198 368 232 43 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Arizona Black — 165134 34909 19487 54 254375522897 269305 2912 383 43 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 153128 18511 15697 76 141267219485 78279 4510 215 32 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWACL D-backs — 153117 25811 26467 76 214387325711 111329 3017 332 32 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 8778 14212 7360 50 179247308555 128286 418 244 51 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWACL D-backs — 8774 21322 11240 50 284376459836 176380 2813 363 51 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Black — 165143 20504 14597 54 140256259515 119180 368 232 43 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 153130 18511 15697 76 138267215482 77244 4510 215 32 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 8780 14212 7360 50 175247300547 125286 418 244 51 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 153130 18511 15697 76 138267215482 77244 4510 215 32 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 8780 14212 7360 50 175247300547 125286 418 244 51 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEARI 0% 197177 33613 15643 31 186260285545 99269 328 249 55 -11 +0 -1 -1 +4 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEARI 34% 7164 12211 6231 10 192267303570 111271 328 259 62 -3 +0 -0 -0 +2 -0.2
202822 MLB CTXARI 34% 2422 4100 280 00 198272314586 116282 338 265 62 -1 +0 -0 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 2422 4100 280 00 182250227477 45286 338 265 44 -1 +0 -0 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650596 1082700 542170 00 181249227476 45285 338 265 44 -30 +0 -2 -4 +14 -2.2
Career— MLE — 510440 691538 4519815 1910 157258259517 102250 399 234 44 -5 +0 -0 -1 +2 -0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650561 8819410 5725219 2413 157257258516 102250 399 234 44 -31 +2 -2 -4 +14 -2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKACL D-backs · 87 PAwOBA .362 → .244 (−118)K% 27.6% → 41.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.59%÷0.952×1.440——41.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.64%÷0.942×0.620—×0.9958.28%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP28.00%÷1.030×0.820×0.969×0.99521.50%
Doubles /BIP6.00%÷0.945×0.720×0.969×0.9954.41%
Triples /BIP4.00%÷0.939×0.720×0.969×0.9952.96%
Home runs /BIP4.00%÷0.862×0.780—×0.9953.60%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 90, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .362 → .244; ISO .176 → .124; BABIP .380 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL D-backs · 153 PAwOBA .332 → .215 (−117)K% 30.1% → 44.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.07%÷0.965×1.440——44.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.99%÷1.069×0.620—×1.0089.93%
HBP% /PA4.58%—×0.720—×1.0083.32%
Singles /BIP21.13%÷1.009×0.820×0.959×1.00816.58%
Doubles /BIP11.27%÷1.031×0.720×0.959×1.0087.60%
Triples /BIP1.41%÷0.984×0.720×0.959×1.0081.00%
Home runs /BIP1.41%÷0.875×0.780—×1.0081.27%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 97, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .332 → .215; ISO .111 → .073; BABIP .329 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Arizona Black · 165 PAwOBA .384 → .232 (−152)K% 29.1% → 35.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.09%÷0.994×1.220——35.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.52%÷0.989×0.700—×1.0088.21%
HBP% /PA4.24%—×0.700—×1.0082.99%
Singles /BIP18.60%÷1.004×0.680×0.979×1.00812.43%
Doubles /BIP10.47%÷1.084×0.600×0.979×1.0085.71%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.992×0.600×0.979×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP10.47%÷1.039×0.470—×1.0084.77%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 117, 3B 98, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .384 → .232; ISO .269 → .131; BABIP .305 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).