Gian Zapata — OGILVIE

Gian ZapataOF ACL D-backs

Age 20 L/L 6'4" / 195 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .267 / .307

PA6

HR0

K%31

BB%8

ISO114

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	165	134	34	9	0	9	19	48	7	5	4	254	375	522	897	269	305	29	12	383	145	+9	-1	—	—	+4	1.2
2024	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	153	117	25	8	1	1	26	46	7	7	6	214	387	325	711	111	329	30	17	332	111	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	19	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	87	74	21	3	2	2	11	24	0	5	0	284	376	459	836	176	380	28	13	363	132	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	165	141	23	5	0	6	12	70	7	5	4	163	263	326	589	163	220	42	7	257	60	-8	-1	—	—	+4	-0.5
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	153	128	18	5	1	1	15	69	7	7	6	141	267	219	485	78	242	45	10	213	30	-13	-1	—	—	+3	-1.1
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	87	78	14	2	1	2	7	36	0	5	0	179	247	308	555	128	287	41	8	245	52	-5	+1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	165	141	23	5	0	6	12	70	7	5	4	163	263	326	589	163	243	42	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	165	134	34	9	0	9	19	48	7	5	4	254	375	522	897	269	305	29	12	383	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	153	128	18	5	1	1	15	69	7	7	6	141	267	219	485	78	279	45	10	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	153	117	25	8	1	1	26	46	7	7	6	214	387	325	711	111	329	30	17	332	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	87	78	14	2	1	2	7	36	0	5	0	179	247	308	555	128	286	41	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	87	74	21	3	2	2	11	24	0	5	0	284	376	459	836	176	380	28	13	363	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	165	145	23	5	0	6	12	70	7	5	4	159	263	317	580	159	220	42	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	153	130	18	5	1	1	15	69	7	7	6	138	267	215	482	77	242	45	10	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	87	80	14	2	1	2	7	36	0	5	0	175	247	300	547	125	287	41	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	165	145	23	5	0	6	12	70	7	5	4	159	263	317	580	159	220	42	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	153	130	18	5	1	1	15	69	7	7	6	138	267	215	482	77	242	45	10	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	87	80	14	2	1	2	7	36	0	5	0	175	247	300	547	125	287	41	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		269	33	0	263	64	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	166	150	31	6	1	4	13	49	2	3	1	207	279	340	619	133	273	30	8	278	74	-5	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	299	269	57	10	2	8	24	86	4	5	1	212	286	353	639	141	276	29	8	289	81	-7	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	392	352	76	14	2	12	31	111	6	6	2	216	290	369	660	153	278	28	8	296	87	-6	+0	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	455	409	90	16	3	15	37	127	6	7	2	220	294	384	678	164	279	28	8	301	90	-5	+1	-1	-3	+10	0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	491	441	98	17	3	17	40	137	7	8	2	222	297	390	687	168	280	28	8	305	92	-4	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	511	457	102	18	3	18	42	143	7	8	2	223	298	394	692	171	280	28	8	307	94	-4	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	520	464	103	18	3	18	43	146	8	8	2	222	299	390	689	168	279	28	8	307	94	-4	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	521	466	103	18	3	18	43	147	7	8	2	221	297	388	685	167	279	28	8	306	93	-4	+1	-2	-3	+11	0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	515	460	102	18	3	18	43	146	7	8	2	222	298	391	689	170	278	28	8	304	92	-5	+1	-3	-3	+11	0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	507	452	99	17	3	17	43	145	7	7	2	219	297	383	680	164	276	29	8	302	90	-6	+1	-4	-3	+11	-0.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	ARI	60%	494	443	94	16	3	16	41	143	7	7	2	212	289	370	659	158	274	29	8	297	87	-7	+1	-4	-3	+11	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	57	52	10	2	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	192	263	288	552	96	279	30	7	270	74	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	145	130	28	5	1	4	12	42	2	2	1	215	292	362	653	146	282	29	8	280	81	-3	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	213	191	41	8	1	6	17	60	3	3	1	215	289	361	650	147	284	28	8	287	87	-3	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	252	226	51	10	2	8	20	71	4	4	1	226	300	394	694	168	285	28	8	292	90	-3	+0	-1	-2	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	275	247	55	10	2	9	22	77	4	4	1	223	297	389	685	166	285	28	8	296	92	-2	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	287	258	59	11	2	10	23	80	4	5	1	229	302	403	705	174	285	28	8	298	94	-2	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	288	258	59	11	2	10	24	81	4	5	1	229	304	403	707	174	285	28	8	298	94	-2	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	286	256	57	11	2	9	24	81	4	4	1	223	299	387	686	164	284	28	8	297	93	-2	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	275	246	55	10	2	9	23	78	4	4	1	224	300	390	691	167	283	28	8	295	92	-3	+0	-2	-2	+6	0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	289	259	57	11	2	9	24	83	4	4	1	220	296	382	678	162	282	29	8	292	90	-3	+0	-2	-2	+6	-0.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	ARI	60%	294	263	57	10	2	9	25	85	4	4	1	217	295	373	667	156	279	29	9	288	87	-4	+0	-3	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2661	2386	529	99	18	84	218	755	38	40	10	222	297	384	681	162	286	28	8	293	87	-30	+4	-12	-16	+58	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	129	24	4	21	53	184	9	10	2	221	296	384	680	163	284	28	8	293	87	-7	+1	-3	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5282	4716	1011	180	31	170	434	1557	82	92	30	214	292	374	666	159	278	29	8	297	87	-57	+7	-21	-29	+106	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	125	22	4	21	53	192	10	11	4	216	292	376	668	160	280	30	8	297	87	-8	+1	-3	-4	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.1	2,739	90	43	220	292	382	-16	-14	2.8	2.8
/162	664	22	10	-4.0	-3.4	0.7	pk7: 3
#5John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gian Zapata (OGILVIE)	20	20→30	40→60	50→45	50	194/267/307	113	269	1	1	31%	8%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	187/257/301	114	274	12	9	35%	7%	58	-1.7	198/280/293	95	349	7	8	41%	9%	65	-1.2	152/277/229	77	359	3	4	50%	12%	49	-0.5
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	37→47	43→55	45→50	46	184/266/293	108	267	10	7	33%	10%	60	-1.6	197/285/328	131	277	13	9	31%	11%	75	-0.5	225/304/406	181	290	21	8	29%	10%	98	+1.1
✕Jon Waltenbury 2008 · A	20	41	40→55	45→40	43	201/266/292	91	286	8	5	31%	7%	59	-1.6	218/268/325	107	288	9	3	26%	6%	67	-1.1	216/265/321	105	281	9	1	26%	6%	61	-0.9
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	40→45	47→45	46	182/270/274	91	279	8	6	35%	10%	57	-1.8	191/265/269	78	298	5	6	34%	9%	53	-2.1	177/255/266	89	258	8	2	32%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Argenis Aldazoro 2013 · A	20	35	40→55	48→50	39	177/227/273	96	239	7	8	28%	5%	40	-3.1	204/239/315	111	271	10	8	28%	4%	53	-2.1	221/248/346	125	282	12	9	26%	4%	61	-0.5
✕Michaelangel Trinidad 2009 · A	20	42	41→60	45→40	45	201/287/303	102	284	9	5	30%	8%	70	-0.8	218/274/380	162	265	20	4	25%	6%	83	+0.1	222/283/422	200	249	29	0	25%	6%	99	+0.5
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	39→47	41→55	46→55	42	195/250/286	91	268	9	9	30%	6%	51	-2.2	201/262/331	130	269	14	13	29%	7%	67	-1.1	222/289/387	165	276	18	21	26%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2019 · A	20	39→46	42→55	49→45	45	192/258/305	112	251	9	7	27%	7%	59	-1.6	194/247/315	121	261	13	7	30%	6%	57	-1.8	219/282/397	178	265	23	8	27%	7%	88	+0.3
●Jack Suwinski 2018 · A	20	39→43	39→60	44→50	39	188/248/271	83	284	7	5	35%	6%	47	-2.5	189/248/295	106	280	10	5	34%	7%	53	-2.1	211/308/417	206	281	27	10	34%	11%	102	+1.2
✕Alexander Canario 2019 · A	19	41→34	42→60	47→50	44	201/268/307	106	272	10	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	210/265/358	148	294	18	11	33%	6%	74	-0.5	201/270/393	193	274	26	13	36%	8%	82	-0.0
●Will Benson 2019 · A	21	28→38	47→55	46→55	43	157/251/282	125	249	16	9	41%	10%	53	-2.1	177/260/329	152	276	18	14	40%	10%	66	-1.1	219/322/395	175	313	17	26	32%	12%	101	+1.0
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→41	42→50	53→55	44	186/268/288	102	275	10	11	34%	9%	60	-1.6	201/285/320	119	319	11	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Jose Quero 2019 · A	20	38	39→40	44→30	44	188/251/268	79	246	7	3	26%	7%	48	-2.5	205/261/316	111	263	10	6	25%	7%	62	-1.4	196/247/344	148	225	15	4	21%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Wilmer Oberto 2013 · A	20	41	42→50	43→45	46	202/280/307	105	255	10	7	24%	7%	69	-0.9	208/266/321	113	282	10	4	29%	6%	65	-1.2	197/246/315	118	270	11	0	30%	5%	55	-0.6
✕Brian Sanchez 2016 · A	20	37	41→60	47→45	34	184/240/286	102	293	9	7	39%	5%	48	-2.5	201/258/330	129	303	14	4	36%	6%	65	-1.2	203/267/358	155	292	18	0	35%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	66	-1.1	215/264/381	166	280	22	5	31%	5%	80	-0.2	195/249/365	169	248	24	1	32%	5%	68	-0.6
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	44	-2.8	221/272/301	80	288	7	19	24%	6%	63	-1.4	235/283/299	64	303	5	24	23%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	73	-0.6	183/264/287	104	286	10	6	37%	8%	58	-1.7	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	40	-0.9
✕Izaac Pacheco 2023 · A	20	41→40	42→50	47→45	42	199/260/306	108	293	10	8	34%	8%	60	-1.6	180/243/297	117	298	12	5	41%	7%	52	-2.2	178/255/335	157	290	20	3	43%	9%	64	-0.8
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	41→43	44→55	44→30	42	200/278/315	116	290	12	5	33%	8%	70	-0.9	197/274/331	134	305	16	4	38%	8%	72	-0.7	202/297/392	190	283	25	2	36%	10%	92	+0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps