Ariel CastroOF
FCL Twins
Age 20
L/L
6'2" / 178 lbs
ROK
BB +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.2 · 2032
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .270 / .320
PA99
HR2
K%35
BB%8
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20↗25
PWR
41↗46
SPD
48↗53
EYE
46↗51
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2032
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.2 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $5M | +$3M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.2M |
| Totals | $9M | $45M | +$36M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | 189 | 169 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 5 | .130 | .218 | .243 | .461 | .112 | .250 | 48 | 8 | .197 | 9 | -19 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -1.7 |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | 134 | 120 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 62 | 4 | 5 | 3 | .133 | .218 | .233 | .451 | .100 | .232 | 46 | 7 | .204 | 14 | -13 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | 117 | 101 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 62 | 7 | 3 | 2 | .059 | .181 | .149 | .330 | .089 | .105 | 53 | 7 | .153 | -25 | -16 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | MIN | 99 | 90 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .189 | .263 | .311 | .574 | .122 | .283 | 35 | 8 | .269 | 64 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB 11% | MIN | 185 | 164 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 61 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .201 | .284 | .341 | .626 | .140 | .285 | 33 | 9 | .286 | 77 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB 28% | MIN | 314 | 277 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 100 | 5 | 7 | 2 | .217 | .302 | .379 | .681 | .162 | .287 | 32 | 9 | .297 | 85 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB 48% | MIN | 403 | 355 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 124 | 6 | 9 | 2 | .217 | .305 | .377 | .682 | .161 | .287 | 31 | 10 | .304 | 91 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB 62% | MIN | 462 | 406 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 46 | 140 | 7 | 10 | 2 | .217 | .307 | .377 | .684 | .160 | .288 | 30 | 10 | .309 | 94 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +13 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB 80% | MIN | 496 | 436 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 50 | 149 | 7 | 11 | 3 | .220 | .310 | .390 | .700 | .170 | .289 | 30 | 10 | .312 | 97 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +14 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB 94% | MIN | 516 | 450 | 100 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 53 | 155 | 8 | 11 | 3 | .222 | .315 | .396 | .711 | .173 | .289 | 30 | 10 | .313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 524 | 457 | 101 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 54 | 158 | 8 | 11 | 2 | .221 | .314 | .392 | .706 | .171 | .289 | 30 | 10 | .313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 524 | 456 | 101 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 55 | 159 | 8 | 10 | 2 | .221 | .316 | .393 | .709 | .171 | .289 | 30 | 10 | .312 | 97 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +15 | 1.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 518 | 451 | 98 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 54 | 159 | 8 | 10 | 2 | .217 | .312 | .381 | .693 | .164 | .288 | 31 | 10 | .310 | 96 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +15 | 0.9 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 509 | 443 | 95 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 54 | 158 | 7 | 9 | 1 | .214 | .310 | .377 | .686 | .163 | .286 | 31 | 11 | .307 | 93 | -4 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +14 | 0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 496 | 434 | 91 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 52 | 156 | 7 | 8 | 1 | .210 | .304 | .366 | .671 | .157 | .284 | 31 | 10 | .303 | 90 | -5 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +14 | 0.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 479 | 419 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 50 | 153 | 7 | 7 | 0 | .205 | .300 | .358 | .658 | .153 | .283 | 32 | 10 | .299 | 87 | -7 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +14 | 0.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 450 | 394 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 147 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .203 | .298 | .348 | .645 | .145 | .281 | 33 | 10 | .293 | 82 | -9 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2040 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 404 | 354 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 135 | 5 | 6 | 0 | .198 | .292 | .336 | .628 | .138 | .279 | 33 | 10 | .286 | 77 | -10 | +1 | -5 | -2 | +11 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6819 | 5976 | 1237 | 220 | 37 | 213 | 681 | 2204 | 108 | 134 | 32 | .207 | .299 | .363 | .663 | .156 | .285 | 32 | 10 | .297 | 85 | -114 | +14 | -20 | -41 | +193 | 3.3 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 570 | 118 | 21 | 4 | 20 | 65 | 210 | 10 | 13 | 3 | .207 | .299 | .363 | .662 | .156 | .286 | 32 | 10 | .297 | 85 | -11 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 0.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | 189 | 160 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 5 | .206 | .324 | .375 | .699 | .169 | .309 | 33 | 13 | .316 | 100 | +0 | -1 | — | — | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | 134 | 113 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 3 | .204 | .323 | .345 | .668 | .142 | .275 | 31 | 12 | .307 | 93 | -1 | -0 | — | — | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | 117 | 96 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 7 | 3 | 2 | .104 | .259 | .260 | .519 | .156 | .137 | 37 | 11 | .248 | 48 | -7 | -0 | — | — | +3 | -0.4 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Ariel Castro (OGILVIE) | 20 | 20→25 | 41→46 | 48→53 | 51 | .192/.270/.320 | .128 | .283 | 2 | 2 | 35% | 8% | 64 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A |
20 | 38→41 | 46→50 | 53→55 | 45 | .189/.278/.319 | .129 | .289 | 14 | 15 | 37% | 10% | 67 | -0.5 | .210/.289/.331 | .121 | .326 | 12 | 16 | 36% | 9% | 74 | -0.1 | .216/.296/.349 | .133 | .314 | 15 | 19 | 33% | 9% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A |
21 | 37 | 44→50 | 49→50 | 40 | .188/.259/.305 | .117 | .281 | 12 | 9 | 36% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .194/.278/.291 | .097 | .346 | 7 | 8 | 42% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .146/.273/.221 | .075 | .359 | 3 | 4 | 52% | 12% | 39 | -0.5 |
|
●Will Benson 2019 · A |
21 | 30→40 | 47→55 | 47→55 | 44 | .163/.256/.291 | .128 | .251 | 16 | 9 | 40% | 10% | 51 | -1.7 | .179/.262/.333 | .154 | .273 | 19 | 14 | 39% | 10% | 64 | -0.8 | .221/.322/.401 | .180 | .313 | 18 | 26 | 32% | 12% | 102 | +1.4 |
|
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A |
20 | 38 | 40→45 | 47→45 | 45 | .183/.271/.272 | .089 | .286 | 7 | 6 | 36% | 10% | 52 | -1.6 | .190/.265/.267 | .077 | .298 | 5 | 6 | 35% | 9% | 47 | -1.9 | .182/.268/.267 | .085 | .274 | 6 | 3 | 33% | 10% | 48 | -0.6 |
|
●Nick Pratto 2019 · A |
20 | 40→43 | 43→55 | 50 | 36 | .200/.247/.312 | .112 | .301 | 11 | 12 | 36% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .185/.244/.319 | .134 | .300 | 15 | 12 | 41% | 7% | 52 | -1.6 | .196/.288/.385 | .190 | .281 | 24 | 7 | 37% | 10% | 87 | +0.7 |
|
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A |
21 | 38→33 | 43→45 | 51→50 | 43 | .192/.259/.300 | .108 | .274 | 11 | 13 | 33% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .205/.268/.319 | .114 | .301 | 12 | 12 | 34% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .179/.252/.298 | .118 | .265 | 14 | 11 | 36% | 8% | 49 | -1.0 |
|
✕Izzy Wilson 2018 · A |
20 | 37→32 | 44→50 | 50→55 | 36 | .182/.242/.293 | .111 | .300 | 12 | 10 | 41% | 7% | 44 | -2.1 | .181/.243/.279 | .098 | .309 | 9 | 14 | 41% | 7% | 40 | -2.4 | .178/.249/.314 | .136 | .272 | 17 | 23 | 39% | 8% | 49 | -1.0 |
|
✕Yeicok Calderon 2012 · A |
20 | 43 | 43→45 | 49→45 | 41 | .209/.272/.325 | .115 | .304 | 10 | 7 | 33% | 7% | 65 | -0.7 | .192/.241/.314 | .122 | .306 | 13 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .179/.225/.300 | .121 | .279 | 15 | 3 | 40% | 5% | 36 | -0.9 |
|
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2017 · A |
20 | 44→43 | 44→55 | 51→50 | 38 | .216/.263/.331 | .115 | .298 | 12 | 6 | 31% | 5% | 63 | -0.9 | .206/.263/.336 | .130 | .290 | 12 | 7 | 32% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .211/.283/.380 | .168 | .276 | 21 | 6 | 31% | 8% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A |
20 | 43→40 | 46→55 | 48→45 | 41 | .212/.271/.348 | .137 | .301 | 12 | 9 | 33% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .202/.271/.334 | .132 | .293 | 13 | 8 | 33% | 8% | 67 | -0.5 | .204/.284/.367 | .164 | .263 | 21 | 5 | 30% | 9% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Brian Pointer 2012 · A |
20 | 42→41 | 44→45 | 55→50 | 38 | .205/.259/.326 | .122 | .303 | 11 | 10 | 35% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .187/.255/.299 | .112 | .286 | 10 | 12 | 36% | 7% | 52 | -1.6 | .192/.271/.313 | .121 | .285 | 12 | 13 | 34% | 8% | 58 | -0.8 |
|
●Bo Naylor 2021 · A |
21 | 41→43 | 44→55 | 50 | 43 | .203/.259/.325 | .122 | .273 | 11 | 7 | 29% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .199/.278/.352 | .153 | .276 | 18 | 12 | 33% | 9% | 75 | -0.0 | .216/.308/.399 | .183 | .269 | 22 | 12 | 28% | 11% | 97 | +1.2 |
|
●Chris Parmelee 2008 · A |
20 | 39→49 | 46→50 | 45 | 39 | .197/.254/.326 | .129 | .287 | 14 | 6 | 35% | 7% | 58 | -1.2 | .208/.282/.349 | .141 | .290 | 15 | 4 | 32% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .250/.315/.397 | .146 | .295 | 16 | 1 | 20% | 8% | 100 | +1.7 |
|
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A |
19 | 42→40 | 41→50 | 46→40 | 44 | .207/.262/.297 | .091 | .272 | 9 | 9 | 27% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .205/.256/.301 | .096 | .278 | 8 | 7 | 27% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .210/.263/.325 | .115 | .276 | 10 | 3 | 27% | 6% | 59 | -0.6 |
|
✕Chris Dennis 2009 · A |
20 | 39→43 | 46→50 | 50→45 | 41 | .192/.271/.317 | .125 | .306 | 15 | 7 | 40% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .211/.279/.356 | .145 | .322 | 15 | 7 | 36% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .207/.272/.365 | .158 | .310 | 15 | 7 | 36% | 8% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Michaelangel Trinidad 2009 · A |
20 | 41 | 41→60 | 44→40 | 46 | .199/.286/.300 | .101 | .282 | 9 | 4 | 30% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .218/.276/.379 | .161 | .265 | 20 | 4 | 26% | 6% | 82 | +0.5 | .222/.283/.422 | .200 | .249 | 29 | 0 | 25% | 6% | 98 | +0.6 |
|
✕Brandon Allen 2006 · A |
20 | 42→47 | 46→55 | 45→50 | 39 | .207/.270/.333 | .127 | .307 | 14 | 7 | 36% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .200/.242/.345 | .145 | .281 | 17 | 6 | 34% | 5% | 58 | -1.2 | .223/.306/.403 | .181 | .284 | 22 | 9 | 28% | 10% | 96 | +1.4 |
|
●MJ Melendez 2019 · A |
20 | 37→47 | 48→60 | 44→50 | 35 | .191/.247/.335 | .144 | .299 | 15 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .179/.239/.336 | .157 | .290 | 19 | 6 | 43% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .220/.307/.417 | .197 | .267 | 25 | 4 | 27% | 11% | 100 | +1.7 |
|
✕Emmanuel Rodriguez 2022 · A |
19 | 43→37 | 49→50 | 49→55 | 36 | .189/.268/.338 | .149 | .366 | 18 | 11 | 49% | 9% | 68 | -0.5 | .202/.328/.369 | .167 | .342 | 18 | 15 | 40% | 15% | 101 | +1.8 | .193/.338/.377 | .183 | .312 | 19 | 18 | 38% | 17% | 104 | +1.0 |
|
✕Jon Waltenbury 2008 · A |
20 | 42 | 40→55 | 46→40 | 43 | .203/.268/.295 | .092 | .290 | 8 | 5 | 31% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .220/.271/.329 | .109 | .287 | 10 | 3 | 25% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .219/.268/.324 | .105 | .280 | 9 | 1 | 25% | 6% | 58 | -0.7 |