Ariel Castro — OGILVIE

Ariel CastroOF FCL Twins

Age 21 L/L 6'2" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .257 / .280

PA64

HR1

K%35

BB%7

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	189	160	33	7	4	4	24	63	4	4	5	206	324	375	699	169	309	33	13	316	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	134	113	23	4	0	4	16	41	4	5	3	204	323	345	668	142	275	31	12	307	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Twins	—	117	96	10	2	2	3	13	43	7	3	2	104	259	260	519	156	137	37	11	248	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	189	167	19	4	2	2	17	77	4	4	5	114	213	198	410	84	195	41	9	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	134	119	17	3	0	3	10	61	4	5	3	143	233	244	477	101	229	46	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	117	101	6	1	1	2	8	62	7	3	2	59	181	149	330	89	100	53	7	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	189	167	19	4	2	2	17	77	4	4	5	114	213	198	410	84	191	41	9	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	189	160	33	7	4	4	24	63	4	4	5	206	324	375	699	169	309	33	13	316	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	134	119	17	3	0	3	10	61	4	5	3	143	233	244	477	101	250	46	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	134	113	23	4	0	4	16	41	4	5	3	204	323	345	668	142	275	31	12	307	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	117	101	6	1	1	2	8	62	7	3	2	59	181	149	330	89	105	53	7	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	117	96	10	2	2	3	13	43	7	3	2	104	259	260	519	156	137	37	11	248	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	189	166	19	4	2	2	17	77	4	4	5	114	213	199	412	84	195	41	9	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	134	119	17	3	0	3	10	61	4	5	3	143	233	244	477	101	229	46	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	117	101	6	1	1	2	8	62	7	3	2	59	181	149	330	89	100	53	7	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	134	119	17	3	0	3	10	61	4	5	3	143	233	244	477	101	229	46	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	117	101	6	1	1	2	8	62	7	3	2	59	181	149	330	89	100	53	7	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	227	205	39	7	2	3	16	80	4	5	1	188	259	283	542	95	285	35	7	248	54	-12	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	116	105	21	4	1	2	8	40	2	3	1	193	265	297	562	104	287	34	7	256	59	-6	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	40	36	7	1	0	1	3	14	1	1	0	193	265	298	562	104	287	35	8	256	59	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	40	36	7	1	0	1	3	14	1	1	0	194	275	306	581	111	286	35	8	256	26	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	113	16	0	16	49	228	16	16	0	193	274	303	576	109	284	35	8	256	26	-31	+3	+0	-4	+14	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	620	551	74	14	4	10	47	263	18	16	11	134	226	229	454	94	227	42	8	207	26	-9	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	77	15	4	10	49	276	19	17	12	133	224	225	449	92	226	42	8	207	26	-33	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Castro (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	186/257/280	94	285	1	1	35%	7%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	39→33	43→45	51→50	42	193/261/303	109	286	10	12	34%	8%	60	-1.6	207/272/319	112	304	11	12	33%	7%	68	-1.0	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Izzy Wilson 2019 · A	21	39→35	42→45	52→55	37	189/247/289	101	313	10	13	41%	7%	51	-2.2	193/261/305	112	326	12	18	41%	8%	60	-1.6	182/254/312	130	278	16	23	38%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Estee Harris 2006 · A	21	37→32	44→50	50	37	190/237/306	116	273	11	14	34%	6%	51	-2.2	189/241/290	101	317	9	13	41%	6%	49	-2.4	173/225/264	91	319	8	13	46%	6%	34	-1.1
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Brenden Webb 2011 · A	21	38→40	41→45	53→50	42	184/260/288	104	282	8	7	35%	8%	56	-1.9	184/272/282	98	313	8	10	39%	10%	60	-1.6	168/249/289	121	278	12	10	41%	9%	51	-1.6
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	53→50	46	189/269/285	96	280	8	13	33%	9%	59	-1.6	194/280/279	85	302	5	15	34%	10%	62	-1.4	185/278/271	86	290	5	16	34%	10%	58	-1.1
✕Jhon Diaz 2024 · A	21	37→26	40→45	49→50	39	181/241/278	97	288	6	11	38%	7%	46	-2.6	174/225/289	115	248	13	16	34%	6%	43	-2.8	154/204/269	115	207	15	17	34%	5%	28	-2.5
✕Danyer Sanabria 2022 · A	20	33	39→45	48→45	35	170/215/251	81	265	7	7	38%	5%	30	-3.8	202/249/292	90	329	5	5	38%	6%	52	-2.2	202/246/298	97	321	5	3	37%	5%	48	-0.8
✕Mitchell Hansen 2017 · A	21	41→36	42→45	51→50	35	204/247/305	101	298	10	9	34%	5%	54	-2.0	194/242/300	106	284	9	9	33%	6%	51	-2.2	177/228/286	109	257	9	9	33%	6%	41	-1.8
✕Rubel Cespedes 2022 · A	21	32→42	39→45	49→40	36	166/219/248	82	252	6	6	36%	6%	31	-3.7	210/258/309	99	293	9	4	30%	6%	59	-1.6	215/263/317	102	288	10	3	28%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Michael Swinson 2011 · A	21	41	41→40	52→50	43	201/265/299	98	278	8	12	29%	7%	60	-1.6	201/265/274	73	267	4	10	24%	8%	54	-2.0	196/267/258	62	261	2	10	23%	9%	49	-1.1
✕D.J. Wilson 2019 · A	22	38	41→50	50	39	185/243/283	99	282	8	13	36%	7%	48	-2.5	183/250/280	97	308	9	14	40%	8%	51	-2.3	104/190/192	88	178	12	21	47%	9%	9	-1.5
✕Nathan Mikolas 2015 · A	21	40	40	48→45	40	192/263/283	91	288	8	7	34%	7%	57	-1.8	207/266/297	90	302	8	6	32%	6%	60	-1.6	195/255/278	83	281	9	4	32%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Garrett Spain 2023 · A	22	39→35	40→45	49→50	41	190/258/278	89	293	8	10	36%	8%	53	-2.1	174/237/283	109	258	11	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	162/228/283	121	225	15	14	34%	7%	41	-2.3
✕Luis Mendez 2024 · A	21	38	38→40	47→50	43	182/254/259	77	275	6	10	34%	8%	47	-2.5	193/255/274	81	270	5	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	187/247/263	77	253	5	13	27%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Yeral Martinez 2024 · A	21	35	42→45	51→50	33	169/235/265	96	310	10	10	46%	7%	42	-2.9	161/221/257	96	303	9	11	47%	6%	34	-3.5	113/172/198	85	218	9	11	51%	5%	1	-2.0
✕Jordan Viars 2024 · A	21	39	40	48→45	39	189/262/280	91	285	8	7	35%	6%	56	-1.9	179/246/285	106	305	11	5	42%	6%	51	-2.3	145/215/250	105	253	13	2	46%	7%	30	-1.5
✕Stephen Chapman 2007 · A	21	42→37	42→50	52→50	40	206/259/315	109	281	9	13	29%	6%	61	-1.5	190/240/329	139	284	15	11	37%	5%	58	-1.7	171/221/313	142	257	17	12	40%	5%	46	-1.7
✕David Calabrese 2024 · AA	21	37→41	44→45	51→50	43	187/259/304	117	279	11	13	35%	8%	60	-1.6	193/259/307	114	267	12	14	31%	8%	60	-1.6	187/246/292	106	241	12	16	27%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Loidel Chapelli 2024 · A	22	39→36	43→45	56→55	46	196/271/312	116	271	10	18	30%	8%	65	-1.2	196/259/284	88	300	7	17	34%	7%	54	-2.0	176/233/238	63	279	4	20	36%	6%	31	-2.0