Lluveres Severino

Lluveres Severino P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 24 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%17.2%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	0%	0.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	3.80	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	0%	0.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	4.60	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	12	0	20	87	13	3	1	0%	1.7	10.2%	4.3%	5.9%	1.5%	4.50	3.60	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	12	0	20	87	13	3	1	0%	1.7	14.9%	3.4%	11.5%	1.1%	4.50	2.90	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	17	0	22	113	14	14	3	0%	1.3	8.4%	15.5%	-7.1%	4.0%	8.72	6.55	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	17	0	22	113	14	14	3	0%	1.3	8.4%	15.5%	-7.1%	4.0%	8.72	6.55	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	17	0	22	113	14	14	3	0%	1.3	12.4%	12.4%	0.0%	2.7%	8.72	5.55	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	45	198	35	17	4	0%	1.7	12.4%	10.4%	2.0%	2.5%	4.57	4.73	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	45	198	35	17	4	0%	1.7	12.4%	10.4%	2.0%	2.5%	4.57	4.73	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	45	198	35	17	4	0%	1.7	17.7%	8.6%	9.1%	2.0%	4.57	3.83	—
2026	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	27	0	41	198	41	27	2	0%	1.5	15.3%	16.1%	-0.8%	1.3%	4.83	4.56	—
2026	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	27	0	41	198	41	27	2	0%	1.5	15.3%	16.1%	-0.8%	1.3%	4.83	4.56	—
2026	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	27	0	41	198	41	27	2	0%	1.5	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	1.0%	4.83	3.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	23	0	24	101	17	14	3	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.6%	3.6%	2.8%	5.30	5.30	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	40	0	42	176	33	21	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	2.8%	5.05	4.95	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	17	0	18	76	14	9	2	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	2.8%	5.05	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	14	9	2	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	2.8%	5.05	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	101	22	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	2.8%	5.05	4.57	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		83	0	129	602	74	75	13	0%	1.6	12.3%	12.4%	-0.1%	2.2%	5.46	4.85	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	0	200	936	115	116	21	0%	1.6	12.3%	12.4%	-0.1%	2.2%	5.46	4.85	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lluveres Severino (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	17.2%	13.6%	2.8%	—	4.95	18.9%	6.8%	42	-0.35	—	—	—
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	94
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	92
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	91
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	283	90
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	90
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	89
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	89
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Cayne Ueckert R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	17.5%	14.9%	1.4%	.306	5.92	22.7%	5.0%	78	+1.66	3.95	205	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	88
Luke Stofel R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	17.6%	12.4%	2.0%	.328	4.42	14.0%	1.8%	147	+0.16	4.26	188	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	88
Brooks Crawford R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	14.9%	13.7%	2.2%	.262	3.56	22.1%	14.5%	103	-1.22	2.50	296	88
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	88
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	88
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Lendy Castillo R 2012 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	14.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.361	4.81	13.9%	1.0%	49	-0.07	4.41	116	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	18.3%	12.6%	1.09	5.14
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12