Alexis Liebano

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AARI	34	35	5.60	4.03	30.2%	10.7%	—	K 22.3% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.25
2025	22	MIX2 levels	37	45	7.05	6.70	17.1%	14.3%	—	K 12.9% · BB 16.6% · FIP 7.46
2026	23	MIX2 levels	32	42	5.10	3.17	31.1%	10.2%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	21	22	5.33	5.33	18.7%	12.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	16	17	5.12	5.05	19.9%	11.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Casey Fien (age 25) · Grayson Thurman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%18.7%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	6	0	9	29	7	1	0	0%	1.4	24.1%	3.4%	20.7%	0.0%	1.04	1.50	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Black	6	0	9	29	7	1	0	0%	1.4	24.1%	3.4%	20.7%	0.0%	1.04	1.83	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	14	1	30	150	26	29	2	7%	2.1	11.8%	24.2%	-12.4%	1.8%	7.80	6.15	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Black	14	1	30	150	26	29	2	7%	2.1	17.3%	19.3%	-2.0%	1.3%	7.80	5.13	—
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	34	0	35	159	48	17	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	4.5%	5.60	5.25	—
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	34	0	35	159	48	17	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	4.5%	5.60	5.25	—
2024	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	34	0	35	159	48	17	6	0%	1.0	30.2%	10.7%	19.5%	3.8%	5.60	4.03	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	210	36	30	11	0%	1.2	12.9%	16.6%	-3.7%	6.1%	7.05	7.46	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	210	36	30	11	0%	1.2	12.9%	16.6%	-3.7%	6.1%	7.05	7.46	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	45	210	36	30	11	0%	1.2	17.1%	14.3%	2.9%	5.2%	7.05	6.70	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	196	61	20	5	0%	1.3	19.3%	11.6%	7.8%	3.4%	5.10	4.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	196	61	20	5	0%	1.3	19.3%	11.6%	7.8%	3.4%	5.10	4.80	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	42	196	61	20	5	0%	1.3	31.1%	10.2%	20.9%	2.6%	5.10	3.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	21	0	22	93	17	12	3	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.9%	5.8%	3.3%	5.33	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	39	0	41	172	34	20	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.7%	8.2%	3.2%	5.12	5.05	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	16	0	17	72	14	8	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.7%	8.2%	3.2%	5.12	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	17	73	15	9	2	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.7%	8.2%	3.2%	5.12	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	103	23	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.7%	8.2%	3.2%	5.12	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		123	1	161	744	125	115	29	1%	1.3	16.8%	15.4%	1.4%	3.9%	6.04	5.79	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	1	200	924	156	143	36	1%	1.3	16.8%	15.4%	1.4%	3.9%	6.04	5.79	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexis Liebano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	18.7%	12.9%	3.3%	—	5.05	19.9%	8.2%	41	-0.28	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	93
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	90
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	89
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	87
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	87
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	87
Davison Palermo R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	16.3%	11.2%	4.0%	.261	4.90	19.8%	7.4%	136	-0.41	4.32	220	87
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	87
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.31	16.6%	6.6%	107	-0.85	3.20	213	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	86
Miles Mikolas R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	23	SU	4.56	16.0%	10.4%	2.7%	.275	4.29	14.9%	8.6%	57	-0.27	3.13	1,386	86
Justin Evans R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	19.2%	11.2%	4.5%	.333	3.89	22.0%	5.5%	65	-1.49	3.63	105	86
Justin Garcia R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	17.5%	12.2%	4.0%	.265	4.84	14.7%	0.1%	14	-0.54	4.06	164	86
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	86
Matt Stites R 2014 · 5.10 FIP	24	SU	5.10	17.6%	10.1%	4.0%	.267	4.10	13.9%	1.3%	105	-1.00	3.25	138	86
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	19.5%	12.1%	1.25	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12