Jose Varela

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 183 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKHOU	6	4	18	3.06	4.57	24.0%	16.0%	—	K 16.3% · BB 20.0% · FIP 6.10
2025	20	MIX2 levels	12	2	38	3.11	3.05	25.3%	13.6%	—	K 17.7% · BB 16.8% · FIP 4.22
2026	21	MIX3 levels	26	0	48	6.94	4.68	21.2%	17.7%	—	K 15.0% · BB 21.3% · FIP 5.86
2027PROJ	22	MLBHOU	23	0	24	5.92	5.92	17.6%	18.6%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBHOU	21	0	22	5.54	5.39	19.4%	15.7%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsConor Grady (age 22) · Fabian Anguamea (age 22) · Hansel Rosario (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%17.6%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%-1.0%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	5	47	190	71	24	2	38%	3.6	25.4%	15.8%	9.6%	1.1%	2.49	3.56	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	13	5	47	190	71	24	2	38%	3.6	37.4%	12.6%	24.7%	1.1%	2.49	2.16	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	6	4	18	75	18	12	2	67%	2.9	16.3%	20.0%	-3.7%	3.4%	3.06	6.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	6	4	18	75	18	12	2	67%	2.9	16.3%	20.0%	-3.7%	3.4%	3.06	6.10	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	6	4	18	75	18	12	2	67%	2.9	24.0%	16.0%	8.0%	2.7%	3.06	4.57	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	38	154	39	21	1	17%	3.1	17.7%	16.8%	0.9%	0.9%	3.11	4.22	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	38	154	39	21	1	17%	3.1	17.7%	16.8%	0.9%	0.9%	3.11	4.22	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	2	38	154	39	21	1	17%	3.1	25.3%	13.6%	11.7%	0.6%	3.11	3.05	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	48	226	48	40	4	0%	1.8	15.0%	21.3%	-6.3%	2.4%	6.94	5.86	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	48	226	48	40	4	0%	1.8	15.0%	21.3%	-6.3%	2.4%	6.94	5.86	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	48	226	48	40	4	0%	1.8	21.2%	17.7%	3.5%	1.8%	6.94	4.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	HOU	23	0	24	101	18	19	3	0%	1.0	17.6%	18.6%	-1.0%	2.9%	5.92	5.92	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	43	0	45	189	37	30	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.7%	3.7%	2.8%	5.54	5.39	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	21	0	22	93	18	15	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.7%	3.7%	2.8%	5.54	5.39	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	0	22	93	18	15	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.7%	3.7%	2.8%	5.54	5.01	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	136	27	0%	1.1	19.4%	15.7%	3.7%	2.8%	5.54	5.01	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		57	11	150	645	122	119	11	19%	2.6	18.9%	18.5%	0.4%	1.8%	4.13	4.82	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	15	200	858	162	158	15	19%	2.6	18.9%	18.5%	0.4%	1.8%	4.13	4.82	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Varela (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	17.6%	18.6%	2.9%	—	5.39	19.4%	3.7%	45	-0.53	—	—	—
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	86
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	84
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	84
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	83
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	82
Frank Martinez R 2024 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	20.0%	21.5%	3.2%	.268	5.08	16.8%	3.7%	77	-0.82	3.30	135	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	81
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	81
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	81
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	81
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	80
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	80
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	80
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	80
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	80
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	80
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	18.8%	16.7%	1.10	5.67
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*