Brian Walters — OGILVIE

Brian Walters P Clearwater Threshers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%22.2%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	26	2	52	240	60	34	5	8%	2.0	18.5%	16.7%	1.8%	2.7%	4.67	5.14	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	26	2	52	240	60	34	5	8%	2.0	18.5%	16.7%	1.8%	2.7%	4.67	5.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	PHI	26	2	52	240	60	34	5	8%	2.0	25.0%	14.2%	10.8%	2.1%	4.67	3.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	50	0	52	220	50	25	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.4%	11.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.62	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	50	0	53	223	52	24	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.48	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	50	0	53	223	52	23	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.45	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	50	0	52	220	52	23	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	21	0	22	93	21	11	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.4%	11.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.62	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	33	0	35	148	34	16	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.48	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	40	0	42	177	42	19	5	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.45	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	42	0	44	186	44	20	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	0	144	607	142	65	18	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.53	4.11	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	90	25	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.53	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		26	2	52	240	44	40	6	8%	2.0	18.5%	16.7%	1.8%	2.7%	4.67	5.14	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	8	200	923	171	154	25	8%	2.0	18.5%	16.7%	1.8%	2.7%	4.67	5.14	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Walters (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	22.2%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.52	23.2%	12.4%	158	-0.33	—	—	—
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	89
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	87
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	87
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	87
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	86
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	86
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	86
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	85
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	49	23.1%	11.0%	1.15	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19