Drew Sommers

P Detroit Tigers

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+TB	41	0	54	4.00	2.29	27.9%	8.6%	—	K 21.5% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.12
2025	24	MIX3 levels	52	1	66	3.66	2.57	26.2%	8.6%	1.6	K 22.7% · BB 7.4% · FIP 2.60
2026	25	MIX2 levels	60	0	61	3.41	2.33	37.0%	8.8%	1.6	K 35.2% · BB 8.4% · FIP 2.53
2027PROJ	26	MLBDET	38	0	40	3.14	3.20	30.9%	8.1%	0.7
2028PROJ83% MLB	27	MLBDET	41	0	43	3.25	3.29	30.2%	8.3%	0.6
2029PROJ88% MLB	28	MLBDET	40	0	42	3.40	3.45	29.5%	8.5%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.767First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$2M2031Ext$4M2032Ext$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo55

Form2.88 ERA (proj 3.14) · K 40.6% (proj 30.9%) · BB 5.9% (proj 8.1%) ▲▲ last 90d · 25 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 3.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsNick Mondak (age 26) · Brian Fuentes (age 26) · Jake McGee (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6270vR 78

ERA3.14

FIP3.20

K%30.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%22.8%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p9036.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.229

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.767 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	32	0	43	190	66	10	4	0%	1.3	25.7%	6.2%	19.5%	2.5%	2.72	3.11	—
2023	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	32	0	43	190	66	10	4	0%	1.3	34.7%	5.3%	29.5%	2.1%	2.72	1.94	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	41	0	54	233	65	20	2	0%	1.3	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	1.1%	4.00	3.12	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	41	0	54	233	65	20	2	0%	1.3	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	1.1%	4.00	3.12	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	41	0	54	233	65	20	2	0%	1.3	27.9%	8.6%	19.3%	0.9%	4.00	2.29	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	66	279	73	24	3	2%	1.3	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	0.9%	3.66	2.60	+1.6
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	66	279	73	24	3	2%	1.3	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	0.9%	3.66	2.60	+1.6
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	66	279	73	24	3	2%	1.3	26.2%	8.6%	17.6%	1.1%	3.66	2.57	+1.6
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	61	262	97	23	6	0%	1.0	35.2%	8.4%	26.8%	2.4%	3.41	2.53	+1.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	61	262	97	23	6	0%	1.0	35.2%	8.4%	26.8%	2.4%	3.41	2.53	+1.5
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	61	262	97	23	6	0%	1.0	37.0%	8.8%	28.2%	2.3%	3.41	2.33	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	0	43	188	65	15	5	0%	0.9	34.6%	8.0%	26.6%	2.7%	4.64	2.63	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	DET	38	0	40	169	52	14	4	0%	1.1	30.9%	8.1%	22.8%	2.4%	3.14	3.20	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	49	0	52	218	66	18	5	0%	1.1	30.2%	8.3%	21.9%	2.5%	3.31	3.35	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	48	203	60	17	5	0%	1.0	29.5%	8.5%	21.0%	2.6%	3.46	3.51	+0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	41	0	43	182	55	15	4	0%	1.0	30.2%	8.3%	21.9%	2.4%	3.25	3.29	+0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	40	0	42	177	52	15	4	0%	1.1	29.5%	8.5%	21.0%	2.5%	3.40	3.45	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	0	128	547	172	45	14	0%	1.0	31.5%	8.3%	23.2%	2.5%	3.76	2.87	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	857	269	70	22	0%	1.0	31.5%	8.3%	23.2%	2.5%	3.76	2.87	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		185	1	224	964	254	77	16	1%	1.2	26.4%	8.0%	18.4%	1.7%	3.50	2.81	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	1	200	861	227	69	14	1%	1.2	26.4%	8.0%	18.4%	1.7%	3.50	2.81	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 21 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.01 (+0.41)K% 37.6% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.63%	—	×0.860	32.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×0.900	10.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 39 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.33 (+0.19)K% 28.1% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.07%	—	×0.860	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.872	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 24 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.12 (+0.59)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.72%	—	×0.810	20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.25%	—	×1.100	2.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.056	×1.200	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 54 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.12 (+0.81)K% 27.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.90%	—	×0.770	21.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.58%	—	×1.150	9.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷1.015	×1.250	1.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 43 IPFIP 1.99 → 3.11 (+1.12)K% 34.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.74%	—	×0.740	25.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.180	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.075	×1.300	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 1.99 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Sommers (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	3.43	29.9%	21.4%	100	+0.23	—	—	—
Nick Mondak L 2024 · 2.70 FIP	26	SU	2.70	30.9%	6.4%	2.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	153	83
Brian Fuentes L 2002 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	32.2%	11.0%	3.4%	.333	3.19	26.2%	17.3%	194	-0.45	2.08	602	82
Jake McGee L 2013 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	28.8%	6.5%	3.2%	.275	2.53	28.5%	22.7%	154	-0.70	1.39	567	79
Damaso Marte L 2001 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	25.3%	5.8%	3.2%	.287	3.09	26.5%	17.9%	214	-0.39	2.41	495	79
Darien Núñez L 2019 · 2.48 FIP	26	SU	2.48	32.5%	11.3%	1.3%	.333	2.65	35.0%	24.6%	52	+0.17	2.48	122	79
Justin King L 2024 · 3.26 FIP	26	SU	3.26	29.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.346	4.16	22.4%	3.6%	65	+0.90	3.26	133	79
Jeremy Horst L 2012 · 2.12 FIP	26	SU	2.12	32.0%	10.4%	0.8%	.282	4.20	18.3%	7.8%	86	+2.08	2.12	181	79
Enny Romero L 2017 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	26.5%	8.6%	2.9%	.316	6.23	16.4%	11.5%	10	+2.72	3.51	188	78
Rafael Perez L 2008 · 2.99 FIP	26	SU	2.99	27.5%	6.4%	2.6%	.296	3.67	13.2%	5.5%	172	+0.68	2.74	403	78
Jack Dreyer L 2024 · 2.66 FIP	25	SU	2.66	26.8%	5.0%	2.2%	.295	2.78	25.9%	19.2%	141	+0.12	2.53	253	78
Tim Mayza L 2018 · 2.84 FIP	26	SU	2.84	27.5%	7.9%	1.9%	.338	3.60	25.7%	17.4%	104	+0.76	2.24	584	77
Antonio Bastardo L 2012 · 2.95 FIP	26	SU	2.95	36.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.292	2.90	27.9%	17.1%	164	-0.05	2.47	404	77
Jack Sellinger L 2024 · 2.65 FIP	24	SU	2.65	26.4%	9.7%	1.0%	.284	3.24	24.0%	9.1%	114	+0.59	2.65	148	77
Scott Stewart L 2002 · 2.60 FIP	26	SU	2.60	25.4%	6.4%	1.5%	.256	3.99	17.3%	12.2%	69	+1.39	2.60	181	76
Carson Skipper L 2024 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	25.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.322	4.23	18.2%	9.2%	77	+1.11	3.02	186	75
Jake Diekman L 2013 · 2.38 FIP	26	SU	2.38	25.0%	8.5%	0.6%	.306	2.90	28.7%	17.8%	182	+0.52	2.27	592	74
Josh Taylor L 2019 · 3.01 FIP	26	SU	3.01	31.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.311	2.43	28.7%	19.1%	48	-0.58	2.43	545	74
Felipe Vázquez L 2017 · 2.26 FIP	26	SU	2.26	29.3%	6.7%	1.4%	.229	2.08	33.8%	27.3%	130	-0.18	1.83	331	74
Darin Downs L 2012 · 2.83 FIP	27	SU	2.83	23.3%	8.1%	1.2%	.293	3.64	19.8%	11.9%	86	+0.81	2.83	107	73
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	31.2%	8.5%	0.98	3.59
Josh Fields ('18)	1.4	46	27.5%	8.0%	0.98	3.71
Keone Kela ('21)	1.1	45	29.9%	9.2%	1.03	3.33
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*