Drew Sommers
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
LHP
6'3" / 250 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA3.89
FIP3.89
xFIP8.22
SIERA5.84
K%23.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.0%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5555
SI (44%)
CH (1%)
SL-1.2 (42%)
FB-2.6 (56%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 32 | 0 | 43 | 190 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 25.7% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 2.72 | 3.10 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 41 | 0 | 54 | 233 | 65 | 20 | 2 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 1.0% | 4.00 | 3.11 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 52 | 1 | 66 | 279 | 73 | 24 | 3 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 0.9% | 3.66 | 2.70 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 6 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 14 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 23 | — | 23 | 99 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 31 | 135 | 37 | 15 | 3 | 27.5% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 2.96 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 58 | 23 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.92 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 58 | 23 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 57 | 22 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.98 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 55 | 22 | 6 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 53 | 22 | 6 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 51 | 21 | 6 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | DET | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | DET | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | DET | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 1 | 171 | 738 | 177 | 65 | 11 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 3.59 | 2.97 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 1 | 200 | 865 | 207 | 76 | 13 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 3.59 | 2.97 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Sommers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.89 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | — | 3.95 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 174 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 85 |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2027 · 2.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.92 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 1.2% | .253 | 3.59 | 15.8% | 2.7% | 65 | +0.67 | 2.92 | 115 | 85 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 84 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 80 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 80 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 80 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 80 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.21 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .276 | 4.94 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.73 | 2.63 | 160 | 80 |
| Josh Smoker L 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.70 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 0.5% | .260 | 3.55 | 26.6% | 18.6% | 174 | +0.85 | 2.70 | 230 | 80 |
| Jeff Malm L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 80 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.71 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.42 | 3.12 | 310 | 79 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2029 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 2.0% | .306 | 2.42 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.67 | 1.42 | 259 | 79 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 79 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .382 | 3.83 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.22 | 2.44 | 171 | 77 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 77 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .231 | 3.89 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | +0.02 | 2.68 | 740 | 77 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2028 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 0.8% | .292 | 3.73 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.57 | 2.70 | 175 | 77 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.47 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.77 | 3.70 | 229 | 76 |
| Miguel Aguilar L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.40 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 1.3% | .273 | 3.59 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 87 | +0.19 | 2.19 | 261 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $7M | $15M | +$8M | ||