Drew Sommers
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 25
LHP
6'3" / 250 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7988vR 97
ERA3.39
FIP3.39
K%25.3%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%15.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (44%)
CH (1%)
SL-1.2 (42%)
FB-2.6 (56%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 32 | 0 | 43 | 190 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.7% | 6.2% | 19.5% | 2.4% | 2.72 | 3.02 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 32 | 0 | 43 | 190 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 34.7% | 5.3% | 29.5% | 2.1% | 2.72 | 1.94 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 41 | 0 | 54 | 233 | 65 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 1.0% | 4.00 | 3.11 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 41 | 0 | 54 | 233 | 65 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.9% | 8.6% | 19.3% | 0.9% | 4.00 | 2.29 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 66 | 279 | 73 | 24 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 0.8% | 3.66 | 2.68 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 66 | 279 | 73 | 24 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 17.6% | 1.1% | 3.66 | 2.57 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 0 | 31 | 141 | 50 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.1% | 12.4% | 20.7% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.17 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 64 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 9.7% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 3.39 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 64 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 9.7% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 3.39 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 91 | 394 | 114 | 40 | 9 | — | — | 28.9% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 3.32 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 70 | 296 | 114 | 40 | 9 | — | — | 38.6% | 13.7% | 24.9% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 3.16 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 73 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.82 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 72 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 69 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.82 | 3.81 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 69 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 204 | 0 | 205 | 878 | 220 | 85 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 3.49 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 215 | 83 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 159 | 1 | 194 | 843 | 210 | 76 | 13 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 15.9% | 1.5% | 3.57 | 2.96 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 1 | 200 | 868 | 216 | 78 | 13 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 15.9% | 1.5% | 3.57 | 2.96 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Sommers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.86 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 2.2% | — | 3.85 | 24.7% | 15.3% | 139 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 85 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .379 | 4.28 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.16 | 3.12 | 142 | 83 |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2027 · 2.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.81 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 1.1% | .253 | 3.58 | 15.8% | 2.7% | 65 | +0.77 | 2.81 | 115 | 82 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 81 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 80 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2029 · 3.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.00 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.34 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.66 | 1.39 | 259 | 80 |
| Josh Smoker L 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.66 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 0.5% | .260 | 3.55 | 26.6% | 18.6% | 174 | +0.89 | 2.66 | 230 | 80 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 79 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.30 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .276 | 5.09 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.79 | 2.65 | 160 | 78 |
| Jeff Malm L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 78 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.48 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 150 | +0.81 | 2.95 | 266 | 78 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.16 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .331 | 3.75 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.59 | 3.08 | 310 | 77 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 2.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.76 | 27.1% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.00 | 25.0% | 15.1% | 74 | +1.24 | 2.17 | 310 | 77 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 76 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 76 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .339 | 3.78 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.30 | 101 | 76 |
| Locke St. John L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 10.1% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.45 | 25.9% | 15.4% | 109 | -0.16 | 3.02 | 389 | 75 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.83 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 0.8% | .314 | 3.57 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 214 | +0.74 | 2.83 | 325 | 75 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 75 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.98 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 0.7% | .301 | 4.15 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 111 | +1.17 | 2.69 | 221 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 24.3% | 9.4% | 0.87 | 3.85 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |
| Cory Gearrin ('19) | 4 | 57 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 0.79 | 3.42 |
| Juan Nicasio ('19) | 5 | 68 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 0.83 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |