Drew Sommers — OGILVIE

Drew Sommers P Detroit Tigers

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7583vR 91

ERA3.03

FIP3.03

K%27.6%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%19.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p8430.7%

p9035.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.234

SI (44%)

CH (1%)

SL-1.2 (42%)

FB-2.6 (56%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	32	0	43	190	66	10	4	0%	1.3	25.7%	6.2%	19.5%	2.5%	2.72	3.11	—
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	32	0	43	190	66	10	4	0%	1.3	25.7%	6.2%	19.5%	2.5%	2.72	3.11	—
2023	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	32	0	43	190	66	10	4	0%	1.3	34.7%	5.3%	29.5%	2.1%	2.72	1.94	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	41	0	54	233	65	20	2	0%	1.3	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	1.1%	4.00	3.12	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	41	0	54	233	65	20	2	0%	1.3	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	1.1%	4.00	3.12	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	41	0	54	233	65	20	2	0%	1.3	27.9%	8.6%	19.3%	0.9%	4.00	2.29	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	66	279	73	24	3	2%	1.3	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	0.9%	3.66	2.65	+1.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	66	279	73	24	3	2%	1.3	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	0.9%	3.66	2.65	+1.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	66	279	73	24	3	2%	1.3	26.2%	8.6%	17.6%	1.1%	3.66	2.57	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	0	38	167	56	14	4	0%	0.9	33.5%	8.4%	25.1%	2.4%	4.74	2.63	+0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	56	0	56	241	88	22	5	0%	1.0	34.0%	8.7%	25.4%	2.2%	3.38	2.54	+1.4
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	56	0	56	241	88	22	5	0%	1.0	34.0%	8.7%	25.4%	2.2%	3.38	2.54	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	DET	17	0	21	93	35	11	2	0%	1.2	37.6%	11.8%	25.8%	2.2%	3.00	2.60	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	DET	39	0	35	148	53	11	3	0%	0.9	35.8%	7.4%	28.4%	2.0%	3.60	2.13	+1.0
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	DET	39	0	35	148	53	11	3	0%	0.9	35.8%	7.4%	28.4%	2.0%	3.60	2.13	+1.0
ROS	25	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	27	7	2	1	0%	1.1	27.6%	8.4%	19.3%	2.2%	3.03	3.03	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	DET	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	27.6%	8.4%	19.3%	2.1%	2.98	2.98	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	62	268	95	24	6	—	—	35.6%	9.1%	26.6%	2.1%	3.34	2.59	+1.6
FULL	25	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	41	174	95	24	6	—	—	54.7%	13.9%	40.8%	3.2%	5.03	1.99	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	67	0	70	296	80	24	7	0%	1.0	27.0%	8.1%	18.9%	2.2%	3.46	3.45	+0.9
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	66	0	69	291	78	24	7	0%	1.0	26.7%	8.2%	18.4%	2.3%	3.54	3.56	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	64	0	67	282	75	24	7	0%	1.0	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	2.5%	3.64	3.68	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	61	0	64	270	70	23	7	0%	1.0	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	2.6%	3.76	3.83	+0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	63	0	66	279	75	22	6	0%	1.0	27.0%	8.1%	18.9%	2.1%	3.41	3.40	+0.9
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	63	0	66	279	74	23	6	0%	1.0	26.7%	8.2%	18.4%	2.2%	3.49	3.51	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	61	0	64	270	71	23	6	0%	1.0	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	2.4%	3.58	3.62	+0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	58	0	61	258	67	22	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	2.5%	3.70	3.77	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		293	0	301	1276	351	107	30	0%	1.0	27.5%	8.3%	19.1%	2.3%	3.68	3.11	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	0	200	849	234	71	20	0%	1.0	27.5%	8.3%	19.1%	2.3%	3.68	3.11	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		181	1	219	943	243	76	15	1%	1.2	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	1.6%	3.49	2.83	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	1	200	860	221	70	14	1%	1.2	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	1.6%	3.49	2.83	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Sommers (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	22.9%	8.2%	2.2%	—	3.56	26.7%	18.4%	206	-0.23	—	—	—
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	80
Sean Doolittle L 2015 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	26.3%	8.8%	1.9%	.306	2.38	32.5%	28.6%	135	-0.67	1.39	259	79
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	79
Daniel Zamora L 2018 · 2.77 FIP	25	SU	2.77	27.1%	8.0%	1.7%	.286	3.94	25.0%	15.1%	74	+1.17	2.15	310	79
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	77
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2015 · 2.93 FIP	26	SU	2.93	22.6%	8.3%	1.3%	.253	3.60	15.8%	2.7%	65	+0.67	2.93	115	76
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	76
Brendan Nail L 2021 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.303	4.34	20.5%	9.1%	94	+0.89	3.45	165	75
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.16	24.1%	12.9%	172	+0.47	3.66	288	75
Michael Sansone L 2023 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	24.2%	5.2%	3.2%	.338	4.71	16.4%	10.0%	263	+1.23	3.15	291	74
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	74
Austin Davis L 2018 · 2.90 FIP	25	SU	2.90	26.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.299	3.88	24.8%	14.2%	99	+0.98	2.19	486	74
Josh Smoker L 2015 · 2.71 FIP	26	SU	2.71	23.7%	10.3%	0.6%	.260	3.54	26.6%	18.6%	174	+0.83	2.71	230	74
Jeff Malm L 2016 · 3.13 FIP	25	SU	3.13	22.0%	7.2%	1.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	101	74
Dale Stanavich L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	24	SU	3.09	25.2%	12.2%	1.0%	.365	4.87	24.5%	10.1%	153	+1.78	3.09	183	73
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	73
Jakob Hernandez L 2021 · 3.31 FIP	25	SU	3.31	25.4%	9.2%	2.2%	.331	4.87	28.0%	17.5%	72	+1.56	2.99	266	73
Nate Lavender L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	29.1%	9.9%	4.0%	.281	2.51	32.6%	25.7%	47	-1.59	2.51	139	73
Kevin Siegrist L 2015 · 2.72 FIP	26	SU	2.72	28.8%	10.3%	1.4%	.263	4.26	26.0%	15.5%	101	+1.54	2.72	176	73
Ben Bowden L 2019 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	31.0%	10.9%	2.3%	.294	4.85	25.3%	12.5%	93	+1.74	2.83	391	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	25.8%	8.3%	0.92	3.64
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97