Tanner Jacobson

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+STL	40	64	4.08	4.04	27.2%	11.2%	—	K 20.9% · BB 12.9% · FIP 5.22
2025	25	A+STL	31	51	3.20	3.40	27.7%	16.8%	—	K 21.4% · BB 19.3% · FIP 4.47
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	67	70	5.55	5.55	21.7%	18.2%	-0.8
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBSTL	24	25	5.48	5.51	21.7%	17.5%	-0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBSTL	34	36	5.49	5.55	21.6%	17.1%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command40

CompsDennis Sarfate (age 27) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Nolan Riggs (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%21.7%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	6	30	8	8	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.26	4.23	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	6	30	8	8	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.26	4.36	—
2023	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	35	0	54	240	74	28	4	0%	1.5	22.8%	13.8%	9.1%	2.1%	4.19	4.09	—
2023	23	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	35	0	54	240	74	28	4	0%	1.5	30.8%	11.7%	19.2%	1.7%	4.19	2.88	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	40	0	64	276	75	31	9	0%	1.6	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	4.1%	4.08	5.22	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	40	0	64	276	75	31	9	0%	1.6	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	4.1%	4.08	5.22	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	40	0	64	276	75	31	9	0%	1.6	27.2%	11.2%	15.9%	3.3%	4.08	4.04	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	31	0	51	220	61	37	2	0%	1.6	21.4%	19.3%	2.0%	1.3%	3.20	4.47	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	31	0	51	220	61	37	2	0%	1.6	21.4%	19.3%	2.0%	1.3%	3.20	4.47	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	31	0	51	220	61	37	2	0%	1.6	27.7%	16.8%	10.9%	0.9%	3.20	3.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	67	0	70	296	64	54	9	0%	1.0	21.7%	18.2%	3.4%	2.9%	5.55	5.55	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	287	62	50	9	0%	1.0	21.7%	17.5%	4.2%	3.0%	5.48	5.51	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	62	0	65	274	59	47	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	17.1%	4.5%	3.2%	5.49	5.55	-0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	24	0	25	106	23	18	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	17.5%	4.2%	3.0%	5.48	5.51	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	34	0	36	152	33	26	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	17.1%	4.5%	3.2%	5.49	5.55	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	256	55	44	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	17.2%	4.4%	3.1%	5.49	5.15	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	145	26	0%	1.0	21.6%	17.2%	4.4%	3.1%	5.49	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		112	0	175	766	167	119	19	0%	1.6	21.9%	15.6%	6.3%	2.5%	3.86	4.62	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	877	192	137	22	0%	1.6	21.9%	15.6%	6.3%	2.5%	3.86	4.62	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Jacobson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	21.7%	18.2%	2.9%	—	5.53	21.7%	4.4%	133	-0.02	—	—	—
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	80
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	80
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	80
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	79
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	79
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	78
Brad Goldberg R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	27	SU	4.38	18.4%	15.4%	1.6%	.331	3.14	30.3%	13.3%	36	-1.24	3.14	197	78
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	78
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	78
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	78
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	78
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	77
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	77
Conor Grammes R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	18.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.303	5.60	15.3%	-11.6%	22	+1.05	4.11	171	77
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	77
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	21.7%	17.6%	1.17	5.51
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*