Nick Sando

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #647

Scout OFP40ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	24	3	74	3.15	2.27	28.9%	11.3%	—	K 20.5% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.33
2025	24	MIX3 levels	30	11	92	3.33	3.13	28.0%	11.0%	—	K 20.6% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.18
2026	25	MIX2 levels	7	6	27	1.69	2.24	31.8%	14.0%	—	K 26.7% · BB 15.5% · FIP 2.81
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	57	0	60	4.63	4.63	22.9%	13.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCIN	30	0	31	4.62	4.63	22.8%	12.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCIN	45	0	47	4.49	4.42	24.6%	11.6%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command50FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Tommy Vail (age 25) · Ben Holmes (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%22.9%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD4050

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	3	74	311	90	35	1	12%	3.1	20.5%	13.6%	6.9%	0.4%	3.15	3.33	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	3	74	311	90	35	1	12%	3.1	20.5%	13.6%	6.9%	0.4%	3.15	3.33	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	3	74	311	90	35	1	12%	3.1	28.9%	11.3%	17.7%	0.3%	3.15	2.27	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	11	92	382	107	42	7	37%	3.1	20.6%	12.7%	7.9%	2.2%	3.33	4.18	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	11	92	382	107	42	7	37%	3.1	20.6%	12.7%	7.9%	2.2%	3.33	4.18	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	11	92	382	107	42	7	37%	3.1	28.0%	11.0%	17.0%	1.8%	3.33	3.13	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	27	107	34	15	0	86%	3.8	26.7%	15.5%	11.2%	0.0%	1.69	2.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	27	107	34	15	0	86%	3.8	26.7%	15.5%	11.2%	0.0%	1.69	2.81	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	27	107	34	15	0	86%	3.8	31.8%	14.0%	17.8%	0.0%	1.69	2.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	57	0	60	253	58	33	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.1%	9.8%	2.6%	4.63	4.63	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	78	0	82	345	78	44	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.62	4.63	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	75	0	79	334	82	39	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.6%	13.0%	2.8%	4.49	4.42	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	72	0	76	319	77	37	9	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.52	4.54	+0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	68	0	71	300	72	36	10	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.9%	11.9%	3.2%	4.64	4.72	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	30	0	31	131	30	17	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.62	4.63	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	45	0	47	198	49	23	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.6%	13.0%	2.8%	4.49	4.42	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	50	0	53	224	54	26	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.52	4.54	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	53	0	56	236	57	28	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.9%	11.9%	3.2%	4.64	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		178	0	187	789	189	94	23	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	2.9%	4.56	4.20	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	101	25	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	2.9%	4.56	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		61	20	193	800	171	107	10	33%	3.2	21.4%	13.4%	8.0%	1.2%	3.03	3.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	21	200	829	177	111	10	33%	3.2	21.4%	13.4%	8.0%	1.2%	3.03	3.67	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Sando (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	22.9%	13.1%	2.6%	—	4.53	23.8%	11.9%	236	-0.10	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	85
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	80
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	78
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	78
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	78
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	75
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	74
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	73
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	73
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	71
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	71
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	70
Brian Fitzpatrick L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	24	SW	3.52	20.2%	9.1%	1.8%	.278	3.00	22.7%	13.1%	69	-0.52	1.49	161	69
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	69
Luis Ysla L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	26	SW	4.96	18.9%	13.9%	3.1%	.325	5.78	18.0%	3.6%	86	+0.82	3.75	378	69
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	69
Aaron Leasher L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	21.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.318	4.98	15.1%	-2.0%	64	+0.94	4.04	477	69
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	68
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	68
Stu Flesland III L 2024 · 3.44 FIP	23	SW	3.44	16.4%	10.1%	0.8%	.310	4.34	17.0%	8.7%	199	+0.90	3.44	270	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	73	23.7%	12.2%	1.10	4.58
Dennis Higgins ('66-'72, 1 WAR*)	2.1	82	24.5%*	12.2%*	0.94*	4.34*
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91