Stu Flesland III
P
Spokane Indians
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 207 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%11.4%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 32 | 7 | 71 | 315 | 70 | 27 | 2 | 16.4% | 10.1% | 0.8% | 3.91 | 3.44 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 30 | 10 | 95 | 386 | 83 | 25 | 14 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.97 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 2 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 74 | 32 | 12 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 95 | 398 | 81 | 33 | 13 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.29 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 82 | 34 | 13 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.57 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 85 | 35 | 13 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 86 | 35 | 13 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 83 | 34 | 13 | 20.6% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.60 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 76 | 33 | 13 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 72 | 32 | 13 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.83 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 68 | 31 | 12 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 70 | 28 | 12 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.81 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 65 | 27 | 12 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.89 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 59 | 26 | 11 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 4.96 | 5.02 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 17 | 178 | 746 | 125 | 66 | 21 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 4.36 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 19 | 200 | 840 | 141 | 74 | 24 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Stu Flesland III (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | — | 4.57 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 290 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 89 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 88 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 87 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 87 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.14 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | .322 | 5.19 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 172 | +0.05 | 2.22 | 286 | 87 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 85 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 85 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 84 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 84 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 6.3% | 11 | -0.01 | 3.78 | 295 | 84 |
| Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 84 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 83 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 83 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 83 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 82 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 82 |
| Jackson Kent L 2023 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 82 |
| Avery Weems L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 4.5% | .323 | 5.15 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.26 | 2.46 | 227 | 82 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 82 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$8M | ||