Stu Flesland III
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 207 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 131
ERA4.98
FIP4.98
K%15.8%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%7.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 12.5% | 25.0% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 12.5% | 25.0% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 5.28 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 32 | 7 | 71 | 315 | 70 | 27 | 2 | 22% | 2.2 | 16.4% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 0.8% | 3.91 | 3.44 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 32 | 7 | 71 | 315 | 70 | 27 | 2 | 22% | 2.2 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 0.6% | 3.91 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 30 | 10 | 95 | 386 | 83 | 25 | 14 | 33% | 3.2 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 3.97 | 5.14 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 30 | 10 | 95 | 386 | 83 | 25 | 14 | 33% | 3.2 | 21.5% | 6.5% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 3.97 | 4.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 15 | 3 | 48 | 209 | 46 | 22 | 6 | 20% | 3.2 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 47 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 118 | 505 | 93 | 47 | 16 | — | — | 18.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 51 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 50 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 93 | 46 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.51 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 73 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 80 | 20 | 219 | 926 | 157 | 86 | 26 | 25% | 2.7 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.38 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 18 | 200 | 847 | 143 | 79 | 23 | 25% | 2.7 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Stu Flesland III (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.89 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 206 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 85 |
| Matt Crouse L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .276 | 4.32 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 268 | +0.35 | 3.97 | 342 | 84 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 82 |
| Matt Tracy L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 82 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 81 |
| Drake Britton L 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 80 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 79 |
| Ryan Kellogg L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 12.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | .359 | 4.23 | 12.3% | 7.1% | 64 | +0.18 | 3.65 | 446 | 78 |
| Michael Sansone L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.15 | 15.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | .287 | 5.64 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 69 | +1.49 | 3.24 | 255 | 77 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.01 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .292 | 4.17 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.16 | 3.91 | 383 | 76 |
| Jose Molina L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.23 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 144 | 76 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 76 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 76 |
| Alec Gamboa L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 14.8% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.11 | 16.6% | 3.2% | 169 | -1.26 | 1.46 | 404 | 75 |
| Carson Teel L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.25 | 16.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | .296 | 4.22 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 63 | -1.03 | 3.44 | 248 | 74 |
| Jackson Stoeckinger L 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.62 | 13.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 184 | 74 |
| Robby Scott L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.06 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .307 | 3.61 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 162 | -0.45 | 2.34 | 285 | 74 |
| Michael Heesch L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 14.0% | 10.3% | 1.2% | .284 | 4.59 | 11.1% | 2.8% | 44 | +0.72 | 3.87 | 109 | 73 |
| Ryan Williamson L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.33 | 17.3% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .301 | 7.66 | 20.0% | 3.3% | 41 | +3.33 | 4.10 | 123 | 73 |
| Hayden Frank L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 1.26 | 4.91 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |