Jaren Warwick — OGILVIE

Jaren Warwick P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

+0.1 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.2%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.4%

IP44

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	A	Inland Empire 66ers	12	0	17	77	18	10	0	17.3%	15.3%	0.0%	4.24	3.58	+0.3
2025	23	A	Inland Empire 66ers	42	0	57	269	71	33	1	19.5%	14.5%	0.5%	5.53	3.54	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	4	0	5	21	7	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	LAA	44	—	44	185	40	23	5	21.6%	12.6%	2.6%	4.69	4.69	+0.1
2026 Total	24	MLB	LAA	—	—	49	206	47	24	5	22.8%	11.8%	2.3%	4.21	4.21	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	LAA	44	—	44	187	41	22	5	22.1%	11.8%	2.6%	4.59	4.55	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	LAA	44	—	44	187	42	21	5	22.4%	11.5%	2.7%	4.53	4.51	+0.2
2029	27	MLB	LAA	44	—	44	185	42	21	5	22.5%	11.4%	2.7%	4.51	4.51	+0.2
2030	28	MLB	LAA	43	—	43	182	41	21	5	22.5%	11.4%	2.7%	4.52	4.53	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	LAA	42	—	42	178	40	20	5	22.4%	11.5%	2.8%	4.55	4.57	+0.2
2032	30	MLB	LAA	41	—	41	173	38	20	5	22.1%	11.6%	2.8%	4.60	4.64	+0.1
2033	31	MLB	LAA	40	—	40	167	37	20	5	21.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.71	+0.1
2034	32	MLB	LAA	38	—	38	160	35	19	5	21.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.75	4.80	+0.1
2035	33	MLB	LAA	36	—	36	153	33	18	5	21.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.84	4.90	+0.0
2036	34	MLB	LAA	34	—	34	145	30	18	5	21.0%	12.2%	3.2%	4.94	5.01	-0.0
2037	35	MLB	LAA	32	—	32	137	28	17	4	20.6%	12.5%	3.3%	5.05	5.13	-0.1
2038	36	MLB	LAA	30	—	30	128	26	16	4	20.2%	12.7%	3.4%	5.18	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			58	0	79	367	73	52	1	19.9%	14.1%	0.3%	4.90	3.40	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			147	0	200	929	185	132	3	19.9%	14.1%	0.3%	4.90	3.40	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaren Warwick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	21.6%	12.6%	2.6%	—	4.52	22.4%	10.8%	132	-0.17	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	95
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	93
Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	21.4%	12.4%	2.4%	.296	5.37	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.16	3.60	146	92
Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	19.5%	14.1%	2.7%	.319	4.82	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.11	4.56	132	90
Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	23.9%	14.0%	2.8%	.301	4.39	26.1%	10.7%	96	-0.02	3.95	143	90
Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	90
Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	89
Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	20.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.298	3.90	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.72	3.63	186	89
Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	89
Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.52	4.13	103	89
Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	88
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	88
Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	87
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	87
Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.86	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.29	2.95	246	87
Bryce McGowan R 2026 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.74	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.38	3.74	178	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2028 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	24.5%	13.2%	2.8%	.256	4.33	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.08	3.88	180	86
Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	86
Armando Ruiz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	86
Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	24	SW	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.42	155	86

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.