Jaren Warwick — OGILVIE

Jaren Warwick P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%19.2%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%3.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	12	0	17	77	18	10	0	0%	1.4	17.3%	15.3%	2.0%	0.0%	4.24	3.58	—
2024	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	12	0	17	77	18	10	0	0%	1.4	17.3%	15.3%	2.0%	0.0%	4.24	3.58	—
2024	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	12	0	17	77	18	10	0	0%	1.4	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	0.0%	4.24	2.75	—
2025	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	42	0	57	269	71	33	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	14.5%	5.1%	0.5%	5.53	3.54	—
2025	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	42	0	57	269	71	33	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	14.5%	5.1%	0.5%	5.53	3.54	—
2025	23	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	42	0	57	269	71	33	1	0%	1.4	26.4%	12.3%	14.1%	0.4%	5.53	2.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	40	0	60	285	71	44	3	0%	1.5	18.6%	18.1%	0.5%	1.4%	4.77	4.56	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	40	0	60	285	71	44	3	0%	1.5	18.6%	18.1%	0.5%	1.4%	4.77	4.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	LAA	32	0	46	218	60	29	2	0%	1.4	27.5%	13.3%	14.2%	0.9%	5.05	2.96	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	LAA	8	0	14	67	11	15	1	0%	1.8	16.4%	22.4%	-6.0%	1.5%	3.86	5.37	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	26	5	4	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	15.8%	3.4%	2.6%	5.30	5.30	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	66	311	76	48	4	—	—	24.4%	15.5%	9.0%	1.2%	4.82	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	57	41	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	2.6%	5.10	5.03	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	59	39	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.7%	6.8%	2.7%	4.99	4.95	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	283	58	38	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	13.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.96	4.96	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	62	0	65	274	56	37	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.6%	6.9%	2.8%	4.99	5.03	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	28	0	29	122	25	17	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	2.6%	5.10	5.03	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	43	0	45	190	39	26	5	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.7%	6.8%	2.7%	4.99	4.95	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	50	0	52	220	45	30	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	13.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.96	4.96	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	52	0	55	232	48	32	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.6%	6.9%	2.8%	4.99	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	762	156	104	21	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.7%	6.7%	2.7%	5.00	4.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	115	23	0%	1.1	20.4%	13.7%	6.7%	2.7%	5.00	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		94	0	134	631	119	102	5	0%	1.4	18.8%	16.2%	2.6%	0.8%	5.02	4.01	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	939	177	152	8	0%	1.4	18.8%	16.2%	2.6%	0.8%	5.02	4.01	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaren Warwick (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	19.2%	15.8%	2.6%	—	4.98	20.4%	6.6%	203	-0.32	—	—	—
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	92
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	90
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	90
Mark Sappington R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	18.9%	16.2%	1.2%	.323	4.39	16.6%	-1.3%	52	+0.17	4.22	120	89
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	88
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	88
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	88
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	88
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	87
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	87
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	86
Josh Graham R 2018 · 4.80 FIP	24	SU	4.80	20.4%	15.1%	2.8%	.327	4.35	18.0%	10.1%	70	-0.45	2.15	254	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	86
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	86
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	20.2%	14.2%	1.04	5.07
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48