Ethan Hedges

3B Spokane Indians

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A+ HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2401ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	A+COL	89	.195/.303/.234	0	2	24	—	.150/.236/.175
2026	22	A+COL	513	.257/.327/.417	16	3	56	—	.198/.256/.314
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCOL	1	.215/.272/.347	0	0	64	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBCOL	119	.218/.277/.356	3	2	68	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCOL	189	.221/.281/.362	5	3	71	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.4M2032Ext$0.4M2033Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Whiff%55

ISO53

Z-Con%44

wOBA39

K%37

wRC+34

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsFrancisco Acuna (age 23) · Ramon Santana (age 23) · Jose Peroza (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .272 / .347

PA1

HR0

K%32

BB%6

BABIP298

ISO130

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	89	77	15	3	0	0	10	17	2	2	0	195	303	234	537	39	250	19	11	260	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	513	463	119	26	0	16	40	137	8	3	3	257	327	417	744	160	330	27	8	332	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	89	80	12	2	0	0	7	23	2	2	0	150	236	175	411	25	220	26	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	513	474	94	19	0	12	29	185	8	3	3	198	256	314	571	116	291	36	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	89	80	12	2	0	0	7	23	2	2	0	150	236	175	411	25	211	26	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	—	89	77	15	3	0	0	10	17	2	2	0	195	303	234	537	39	250	19	11	260	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	513	474	94	19	0	12	29	185	8	3	3	198	256	314	571	116	294	36	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	—	513	463	119	26	0	16	40	137	8	3	3	257	327	417	744	160	330	27	8	332	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	89	80	12	2	0	0	7	23	2	2	0	150	236	175	411	25	220	26	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	513	471	94	19	0	12	29	185	8	3	3	200	256	316	573	117	291	36	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	89	80	12	2	0	0	7	23	2	2	0	150	236	175	411	25	220	26	8	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	513	471	94	19	0	12	29	185	8	3	3	200	256	316	573	117	291	36	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	0%	524	481	99	20	2	11	31	170	7	8	3	204	263	323	585	119	285	32	6	263	64	-22	+0	+2	+2	+11	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	215	272	347	619	132	298	0	0	276	64	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	30%	393	361	75	15	1	9	24	125	5	6	2	208	267	331	598	123	286	32	6	269	68	-15	+0	+2	+1	+9	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	44%	427	392	81	16	1	10	27	133	5	7	2	210	271	337	607	126	287	31	6	272	71	-15	+1	+2	+2	+9	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	51%	445	408	86	17	1	11	29	137	5	8	3	212	273	340	613	128	287	31	7	275	72	-15	+0	+2	+2	+10	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	52%	451	413	87	17	1	11	30	137	5	8	3	212	274	340	615	128	286	30	7	276	73	-15	+0	+2	+2	+10	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	30%	119	110	25	5	1	3	7	38	1	2	1	218	277	356	633	137	300	32	6	282	68	-5	+0	+1	+0	+3	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	44%	189	173	38	7	1	5	12	59	2	3	1	221	281	362	643	141	300	31	6	286	71	-7	+0	+1	+1	+4	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	51%	226	206	46	9	1	6	15	69	3	4	1	223	283	365	649	143	300	31	7	289	72	-7	+0	+1	+1	+5	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	52%	236	215	47	9	1	6	16	72	3	4	1	223	285	366	651	143	300	31	7	290	73	-8	+0	+1	+1	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	770	704	156	30	4	20	50	238	9	13	4	222	282	361	643	139	302	31	6	288	66	-26	+1	+4	+3	+17	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	131	25	3	17	42	201	8	11	3	221	281	359	640	138	301	31	6	288	66	-22	+1	+3	+2	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2528	2320	475	94	5	58	159	808	33	37	14	205	266	325	590	120	285	32	6	265	66	-68	+2	+10	+7	+42	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	122	24	1	15	41	208	8	10	4	204	265	323	588	119	284	32	6	265	66	-23	+1	+3	+2	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 513 PAwOBA .324 → .251 (−73)K% 26.7% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.71%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	36.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.80%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	5.60%
HBP% /PA	1.56%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.28%
Singles /BIP	23.62%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.989	×1.012	21.52%
Doubles /BIP	7.98%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.989	×1.012	6.63%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.989	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.91%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.012	4.12%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .324 → .251; ISO .160 → .120; BABIP .330 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 89 PAwOBA .254 → .204 (−51)K% 19.1% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.10%	÷1.005	×1.350	—	—	25.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.24%	÷1.030	×0.710	—	×1.027	7.96%
HBP% /PA	2.25%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	1.87%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.068	×0.910	×1.013	×1.027	17.73%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.013	×1.027	4.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.820	×1.013	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.999	×0.830	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 114, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .254 → .204; ISO .039 → .032; BABIP .250 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Pete Mackanin'73-'81 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,686 PA	2.5	1,686	30	27	222*	261*	370*	+6	+23	0.6	1.6
/162	664	12	11	+2.4	+8.9	0.2	pk7: 3
#3Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	3.1	2,067	31	14	225*	286*	340*	+5	-0	-1.5	0.0
/162	664	10	4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.5	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.2	771	18	13	212	270	339	+3	+4	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	16	11	+2.4	+3.7	-0.1	pk7: 0
#4Pedro Garcia'73-'77 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,967 PA	3.0	1,967	37	35	220*	270*	388*	+6	-6	-0.3	-0.3
/162	664	12	12	+2.1	-2.0	-0.1	pk7: -0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Hedges (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	202/260/320	117	285	5	3	32%	6%	64	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Francisco Acuna 2023 · A	23	40→47	41→45	47→50	42	197/272/302	105	277	8	11	30%	7%	65	-1.2	213/283/307	94	282	7	13	25%	7%	70	-0.9	198/282/292	94	261	8	17	25%	8%	64	-0.7
✕Ramon Santana 2009 · A	23	40→50	43→45	49→45	37	197/264/307	110	298	10	9	36%	6%	62	-1.4	211/273/319	108	322	8	6	35%	6%	68	-1.0	207/270/313	107	315	7	4	34%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Jose Peroza 2023 · A	23	44→46	43→45	49→45	41	211/277/323	112	307	11	5	33%	7%	71	-0.8	220/288/342	122	335	12	5	35%	7%	79	-0.2	215/290/349	135	332	13	4	36%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Brad Harman 2009 · AA	23	40→50	44→45	46→40	40	204/258/319	115	284	12	4	32%	6%	62	-1.4	194/245/295	101	276	9	4	31%	6%	51	-2.2	172/221/258	86	246	5	0	31%	5%	33	-2.8
✕Eudy Pina 2014 · A	23	38→47	44→45	52→55	40	192/259/316	124	275	10	12	33%	7%	62	-1.4	224/270/327	103	312	8	9	29%	5%	68	-1.0	233/272/321	88	320	6	8	28%	4%	64	-0.9
✕Raul Beracierta 2022 · A	23	42	44→45	50	37	203/257/328	125	309	11	8	36%	6%	64	-1.3	224/268/345	121	328	14	5	34%	5%	72	-0.7	230/268/353	123	329	17	1	34%	4%	70	-0.5
✕Jiandido Tromp 2017 · A	23	39→48	49→50	50→45	37	203/245/354	151	266	16	9	30%	5%	65	-1.2	219/264/343	124	295	12	8	29%	5%	70	-0.9	220/265/331	111	298	10	8	29%	5%	64	-0.9
✕Ben Ross 2024 · AA	23	38→44	47→45	49→55	43	196/263/327	131	268	15	9	32%	8%	67	-1.1	189/255/313	124	267	14	16	33%	8%	60	-1.6	186/257/314	129	258	15	19	33%	8%	59	-1.3
✕Luis De Los Santos 2021 · A	23	41→50	40→45	48→45	37	199/248/295	96	286	8	8	32%	5%	52	-2.2	221/269/341	120	301	12	6	29%	5%	71	-0.8	222/288/333	111	299	11	7	28%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Trey Amburgey 2018 · A	23	40→45	42→50	51→50	37	200/246/305	105	276	10	12	31%	4%	54	-2.0	220/261/355	135	283	15	9	27%	4%	72	-0.7	224/264/367	142	289	15	7	28%	4%	73	-0.5
✕Alex De Goti 2018 · A	23	41→48	41→45	44→50	44	200/272/294	94	288	9	7	32%	8%	62	-1.4	226/280/344	118	285	12	7	24%	6%	76	-0.4	220/276/336	116	280	10	6	24%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Narciso Crook 2018 · A	23	39→43	43→50	48→50	34	195/240/306	111	295	11	9	37%	5%	53	-2.1	220/271/346	126	319	11	11	33%	5%	73	-0.6	211/273/363	152	309	16	14	35%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	36→42	44→55	45→50	44	183/264/301	119	275	11	7	36%	9%	61	-1.5	207/286/371	164	296	18	9	34%	9%	86	+0.3	196/269/361	165	267	20	12	33%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	41→47	43→45	48→45	47	203/269/312	108	262	11	6	26%	8%	65	-1.2	220/290/337	117	281	12	7	25%	9%	78	-0.3	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/250/319	131	265	15	10	34%	6%	60	-1.6	206/269/349	143	296	16	9	34%	6%	74	-0.6	201/265/348	147	289	17	7	35%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	41	43→50	46→45	38	204/251/318	114	286	10	7	32%	5%	59	-1.6	198/261/298	100	298	9	10	34%	8%	58	-1.7	169/237/256	87	252	9	10	35%	8%	38	-0.8
✕Marcos Castañon 2022 · A	23	39→49	42→50	49→40	34	191/243/296	105	297	9	6	38%	5%	51	-2.2	211/286/355	144	284	17	2	30%	8%	82	-0.0	222/277/356	134	285	15	2	27%	6%	76	-0.3
✕C.J. Chatham 2018 · A	23	44→53	43→40	49→45	41	215/268/324	109	285	10	6	28%	6%	67	-1.1	240/271/313	73	319	5	8	25%	4%	64	-1.3	248/281/319	72	321	5	7	24%	3%	68	-0.6
✕D.J. Stewart 2022 · A	23	44	47→50	49→55	41	223/272/352	129	284	15	7	27%	6%	75	-0.5	209/256/330	121	278	13	14	29%	5%	64	-1.3	181/224/301	120	237	13	22	30%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Derrick Mitchell 2010 · A	23	37→47	45→50	47→55	36	192/228/317	125	252	12	8	30%	4%	51	-2.3	214/261/344	130	281	13	16	28%	5%	69	-0.9	215/265/343	128	275	14	19	26%	5%	68	-0.7

Ethan Hedges

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps