Zack Qin

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 198 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKSD	10	5	32	5.62	3.57	22.8%	12.8%	—	K 15.5% · BB 15.9% · FIP 4.94
2024	19	MIX2 levels	11	2	18	1.50	2.10	31.1%	6.8%	—	K 31.1% · BB 6.8% · FIP 2.07
2026	21	MIX2 levels	18	4	52	4.53	3.56	29.1%	9.4%	—	K 20.6% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	22	MLBSD	34	0	36	4.83	4.83	20.7%	10.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSD	23	0	24	4.67	4.60	21.7%	10.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSD	32	0	34	4.53	4.46	22.4%	9.5%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDante Biasi (age 23) · Felix Doubront (age 22) · Sean Mellen (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.7%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	10	5	32	149	34	19	2	50%	3.2	15.5%	15.9%	-0.4%	2.1%	5.62	4.94	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	10	5	32	149	34	19	2	50%	3.2	22.8%	12.8%	10.1%	1.3%	5.62	3.57	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	2	18	74	23	5	1	18%	1.6	31.1%	6.8%	24.3%	1.4%	1.50	2.07	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	2	18	74	23	5	1	18%	1.6	31.1%	6.8%	24.3%	1.4%	1.50	2.07	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	2	18	74	23	5	1	18%	1.6	31.1%	6.8%	24.3%	1.4%	1.50	2.10	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	4	52	223	65	21	7	22%	2.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	4.2%	4.53	5.07	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	4	52	223	65	21	7	22%	2.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	4.2%	4.53	5.07	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	4	52	223	65	21	7	22%	2.9	29.1%	9.4%	19.7%	3.1%	4.53	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	34	0	36	152	31	17	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.1%	4.83	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	46	0	48	204	44	20	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.1%	4.67	4.60	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	49	209	47	20	6	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.46	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	48	0	50	211	48	19	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.43	4.37	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	48	0	50	211	49	19	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.38	4.35	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	49	208	48	19	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	3.1%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	23	0	24	101	22	10	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.1%	4.67	4.60	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	32	0	34	144	32	14	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	39	0	41	173	40	16	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.43	4.37	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	42	0	44	186	43	17	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.38	4.35	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	42	0	44	186	43	17	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	3.1%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		178	0	187	789	179	73	24	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.3%	13.4%	3.0%	4.46	4.03	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	78	26	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.3%	13.4%	3.0%	4.46	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		39	11	102	446	92	54	13	28%	2.6	20.6%	12.1%	8.6%	3.0%	4.34	4.53	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	22	200	877	181	106	26	28%	2.6	20.6%	12.1%	8.6%	3.0%	4.34	4.53	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Qin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.7%	10.9%	3.1%	—	4.48	22.3%	12.8%	148	-0.35	—	—	—
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	84
Felix Doubront L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	20.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.312	4.02	21.6%	11.6%	323	+0.02	3.44	719	83
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	83
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	83
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	82
Juliandry Higuera L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	20.0%	9.4%	2.3%	.358	4.64	13.8%	-0.3%	43	+0.77	3.87	197	81
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	81
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	81
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	80
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	80
Cameron Ming L 2018 · 3.80 FIP	22	SU	3.80	17.7%	7.1%	2.4%	.308	5.54	14.3%	4.9%	49	+1.74	3.80	111	79
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	368	78
Jeremy Affeldt L 2002 · 3.93 FIP	23	SW	3.93	19.0%	9.3%	2.3%	.314	3.79	16.8%	8.4%	252	-0.14	2.56	926	78
Franklin Dacosta L 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SW	4.40	19.0%	7.9%	3.5%	.272	6.32	17.0%	-2.0%	16	+1.92	2.83	247	78
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.28	335	77
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	906	77
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	77
Luis Ysla L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	19.6%	12.5%	3.4%	.412	4.47	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.41	3.75	378	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	77
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	22.4%	9.6%	1.18	4.52
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*