Andrew Healy

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 24 LHP 6'6" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1104ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	13	82	4.94	3.66	21.6%	10.2%	—	K 16.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.63
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	—	—	0	5.07	5.07	17.6%	11.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIL	4	4	26	4.98	4.91	19.0%	10.8%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIL	6	6	37	4.87	4.83	19.9%	10.6%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsConnor Oliver (age 23) · Brad Mills (age 25) · Mac Lardner (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%17.6%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	82	361	78	37	7	52%	3.3	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.5%	4.94	4.63	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	82	361	78	37	7	52%	3.3	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.5%	4.94	4.63	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	82	361	78	37	7	52%	3.3	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	1.9%	4.94	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%	11.7%	5.9%	2.9%	5.07	5.07	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	60	252	48	27	7	100%	6.6	19.0%	10.8%	8.3%	2.9%	4.90	4.83	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	56	235	47	25	7	100%	6.2	19.9%	10.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.79	4.75	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	53	223	45	24	7	100%	6.6	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	50	211	42	23	6	100%	6.2	20.0%	10.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.84	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	46	195	38	21	6	100%	6.6	19.7%	11.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.97	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	42	176	34	20	6	100%	5.9	19.4%	11.3%	8.1%	3.4%	5.05	5.14	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	4	4	26	110	21	12	3	100%	6.5	19.0%	10.8%	8.3%	3.0%	4.98	4.91	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	37	156	31	17	5	100%	6.2	19.9%	10.6%	9.2%	3.1%	4.87	4.83	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	41	173	35	18	5	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.84	4.84	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	42	177	35	19	6	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.7%	9.2%	3.2%	4.88	4.92	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	40	169	33	19	6	100%	6.7	19.7%	11.0%	8.8%	3.4%	4.99	5.06	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	37	156	30	18	6	100%	6.2	19.4%	11.3%	8.1%	3.6%	5.14	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	35	223	941	186	102	31	100%	6.4	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.95	4.59	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	167	91	28	100%	6.3	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.95	4.59	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		25	13	82	361	58	43	9	52%	3.3	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.5%	4.94	4.63	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	32	200	880	142	106	22	52%	3.3	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.5%	4.94	4.63	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 61 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.66 (+1.07)K% 23.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.19%	—	×0.740	17.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×1.180	13.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 21 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.56 (+0.77)K% 17.3% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.35%	—	×0.770	13.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.150	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Healy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	17.6%	11.7%	2.9%	—	4.78	19.6%	8.9%	168	-0.29	—	—	—
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	86
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	85
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	83
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	83
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	82
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	82
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	81
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	81
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	81
Dallas Braden L 2008 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	13.6%	7.6%	2.7%	.301	3.79	14.5%	8.5%	347	-0.59	3.64	491	80
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	80
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	78
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	78
Tim Berry L 2015 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	12.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.346	5.03	14.7%	-0.6%	113	+0.57	4.04	196	77
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	77
Colin Rodgers L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	24	SW	4.36	16.8%	9.7%	2.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	313	77
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	77
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.5%	4.7%	321	-1.03	3.35	506	76
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	76
Zach Thornton L 2024 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	13.8%	7.2%	1.9%	.335	3.96	20.5%	14.1%	220	+0.06	2.95	288	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	52	19.3%	11.0%	1.17	4.89
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*