Andrew Healy — OGILVIE

Andrew Healy P Wilson Warbirds

Age 23 LHP 6'6" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%20.7%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	13	82	361	78	37	7	52%	3.3	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.5%	4.94	4.63	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	13	82	361	78	37	7	52%	3.3	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.5%	4.94	4.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	MIL	20	9	61	263	61	29	5	45%	3.0	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	1.9%	4.15	3.58	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIL	5	4	21	98	17	8	2	80%	4.3	17.3%	8.2%	9.2%	2.0%	7.17	3.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	82	347	74	34	10	100%	6.3	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.60	4.55	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	83	352	77	33	10	100%	6.4	21.8%	9.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	83	352	78	33	10	100%	6.4	22.1%	9.3%	12.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.41	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	82	347	76	32	10	100%	6.3	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	80	336	80	29	10	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.6%	15.3%	3.1%	4.33	4.26	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	76	321	76	28	10	100%	6.3	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.36	4.39	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	71	301	70	28	10	100%	6.5	23.3%	9.2%	14.2%	3.4%	4.48	4.56	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	67	281	64	27	10	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.7%	4.65	4.76	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	35	148	32	15	5	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.68	4.63	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	55	232	51	22	7	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.4%	12.5%	3.1%	4.57	4.52	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	66	279	61	26	9	100%	6.6	22.1%	9.3%	12.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.49	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	70	296	65	27	9	100%	6.4	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	3.1%	4.52	4.52	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	71	300	72	26	10	100%	6.5	23.9%	8.6%	15.3%	3.3%	4.41	4.34	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	69	291	69	26	10	100%	6.3	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.4%	4.45	4.48	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	66	279	65	26	10	100%	6.6	23.3%	9.2%	14.2%	3.6%	4.57	4.65	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	62	262	60	25	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.9%	4.75	4.86	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	494	2086	475	192	70	100%	6.3	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.55	4.17	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	192	78	28	100%	6.3	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.55	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		25	13	82	361	58	43	9	52%	3.3	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.5%	4.94	4.63	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	32	200	880	142	106	22	52%	3.3	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	2.5%	4.94	4.63	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Healy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	20.7%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.47	21.8%	12.3%	249	-0.26	—	—	—
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	83
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	83
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	79
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	78
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	78
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	958	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	76
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	76
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	75
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	74
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.54	15.7%	4.7%	77	+0.54	4.38	243	73
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	73
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	73
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	73
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	73
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	73
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	72
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	72
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	72	22.6%	9.3%	1.21	4.48
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63