Ryan Birchard — OGILVIE

Ryan Birchard P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 207 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%21.0%

BB%20.2%

K-BB%0.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD2030

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	9	21	105	30	20	2	90%	2.1	18.2%	29.3%	-11.1%	4.6%	6.33	7.82	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	9	21	105	30	20	2	90%	2.1	18.2%	29.3%	-11.1%	4.6%	6.33	7.82	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	9	21	105	30	20	2	90%	2.1	28.6%	19.0%	9.5%	1.9%	6.33	4.32	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	22	104	451	121	73	5	88%	4.1	20.7%	18.6%	2.0%	1.1%	3.91	4.32	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	22	104	451	121	73	5	88%	4.1	20.7%	18.6%	2.0%	1.1%	3.91	4.32	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	22	104	451	121	73	5	88%	4.1	26.8%	16.2%	10.6%	1.1%	3.91	3.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	34	2	50	233	82	57	6	6%	1.5	28.5%	26.9%	1.6%	3.1%	4.68	5.80	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	34	2	50	233	82	57	6	6%	1.5	28.5%	26.9%	1.6%	3.1%	4.68	5.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	MIL	34	2	50	233	82	57	6	6%	1.5	35.2%	24.5%	10.7%	2.6%	4.68	4.64	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	5	5	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	20.2%	0.9%	2.5%	5.64	5.64	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	56	258	87	62	7	—	—	33.8%	24.1%	9.8%	2.6%	4.78	5.78	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	121	0	127	535	116	93	14	0%	1.0	21.7%	17.4%	4.3%	2.5%	5.34	5.24	-1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	122	0	128	542	120	85	14	0%	1.1	22.1%	15.6%	6.5%	2.5%	5.10	4.99	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	122	0	128	542	121	82	14	0%	1.1	22.3%	15.2%	7.1%	2.6%	4.98	4.93	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	120	0	126	534	119	80	14	0%	1.1	22.3%	15.0%	7.2%	2.6%	4.96	4.95	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	117	0	123	518	115	79	14	0%	1.0	22.1%	15.2%	6.9%	2.7%	5.01	5.04	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	112	0	117	495	108	76	14	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.4%	6.5%	2.9%	5.10	5.17	-0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	105	0	110	465	100	73	14	0%	1.0	21.5%	15.7%	5.8%	3.1%	5.25	5.34	-1.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	53	0	56	236	51	41	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	17.4%	4.3%	2.5%	5.34	5.24	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	82	0	86	363	80	57	9	0%	1.0	22.1%	15.6%	6.5%	2.5%	5.10	4.99	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	97	0	102	431	96	65	11	0%	1.1	22.3%	15.2%	7.1%	2.6%	4.98	4.93	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	103	0	108	456	102	69	12	0%	1.0	22.3%	15.0%	7.2%	2.6%	4.96	4.95	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	104	0	109	460	102	70	13	0%	1.0	22.1%	15.2%	6.9%	2.7%	5.01	5.04	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	102	0	107	452	99	70	13	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.4%	6.5%	2.9%	5.10	5.17	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	97	0	102	431	93	68	13	0%	1.1	21.5%	15.7%	5.8%	3.1%	5.25	5.34	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		637	0	669	2826	622	438	77	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.5%	6.5%	2.7%	5.09	4.71	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	131	23	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.5%	6.5%	2.7%	5.09	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		69	33	175	789	179	177	17	48%	2.5	22.6%	22.5%	0.2%	2.2%	4.42	5.22	-5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	38	200	902	204	203	20	48%	2.5	22.6%	22.5%	0.2%	2.2%	4.42	5.22	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Birchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	21.0%	20.2%	2.5%	—	5.05	22.0%	6.0%	384	-0.59	—	—	—
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	76
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	74
Yohan Ramírez R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	23	SW	4.72	18.2%	14.6%	2.4%	.243	4.16	27.6%	10.7%	172	-0.56	2.80	678	74
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	72
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	72
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	72
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	71
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	70
Henry Henry R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	23	SW	4.65	18.1%	16.3%	1.8%	.354	5.29	13.5%	-3.4%	68	+0.64	2.65	348	70
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	70
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	70
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	69
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	69
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	69
Jared Kelley R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	18.9%	19.4%	1.9%	.365	4.90	16.4%	0.7%	99	-0.13	4.25	250	69
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	69
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	69
Jared Johnson R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	22	SW	5.70	21.6%	18.9%	3.7%	.268	4.66	18.1%	7.2%	89	-1.04	3.01	220	68
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	68
Miguel Almonte R 2016 · 4.89 FIP	23	SW	4.89	17.7%	13.4%	2.9%	.344	3.86	21.4%	11.9%	67	-1.03	3.06	247	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	123	21.9%	16.2%	1.04	5.17
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77