Ryan Birchard — OGILVIE

Ryan Birchard P Biloxi Shuckers

+0.4 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2029

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.0%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%7.7%

IP104

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	10	9	21	105	30	20	2	18.2%	29.3%	4.7%	6.33	7.83	-0.7
2025	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	22	104	451	121	73	5	20.7%	18.6%	1.2%	3.91	4.35	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	3	1	9	42	12	13	1	—	—	—	4.00	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	MIL	19	19	104	438	96	63	11	22.0%	14.3%	2.5%	4.82	4.82	+0.6
2026 Total	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	113	480	108	76	12	22.6%	15.7%	2.5%	4.75	4.44	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	MIL	22	22	122	516	116	64	13	22.5%	12.5%	2.5%	4.64	4.55	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	MIL	25	25	136	573	131	65	15	22.9%	11.3%	2.6%	4.48	4.39	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	MIL	26	26	143	603	139	67	16	23.0%	11.1%	2.6%	4.41	4.36	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	MIL	26	26	146	615	142	68	16	23.0%	11.1%	2.6%	4.38	4.37	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	MIL	26	26	146	614	141	68	16	23.0%	11.1%	2.6%	4.39	4.40	+1.5
2032	29	MLB	MIL	26	26	142	600	137	67	16	22.9%	11.2%	2.7%	4.42	4.44	+1.4
2033	30	MLB	MIL	25	25	138	582	132	66	16	22.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.47	4.50	+1.3
2034	31	MLB	MIL	24	24	133	562	126	64	16	22.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.53	4.58	+1.1
2035	32	MLB	MIL	23	23	128	540	120	62	16	22.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.61	4.66	+0.9
2036	33	MLB	MIL	22	22	122	515	113	60	15	21.8%	11.7%	3.0%	4.70	4.76	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	MIL	21	21	116	489	105	58	15	21.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.80	4.87	+0.6
2038	35	MLB	MIL	20	20	109	461	97	56	15	21.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.92	4.99	+0.4
2039	36	MLB	MIL	19	19	102	431	89	54	14	20.7%	12.4%	3.3%	5.04	5.13	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			38	32	134	598	124	128	11	20.8%	21.4%	1.9%	4.30	5.07	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—			57	48	200	893	185	191	16	20.8%	21.4%	1.9%	4.30	5.07	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Birchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	22.0%	14.3%	2.5%	—	4.43	22.8%	11.2%	401	-0.39	—	—	—
Will Schomberg R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	93
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	92
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	91
Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	91
Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	90
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	90
Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	20.9%	17.0%	1.5%	.291	5.47	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.19	2.92	145	90
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	90
R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP-	5.14	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	5.83	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.69	5.14	196	89
Zach Fruit R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	87
Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.4%	1.9%	.275	5.49	23.1%	0.8%	18	+1.63	3.46	249	87
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	87
Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	4.43	18.0%	0.6%	99	-0.08	4.24	311	86
Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.74	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	86
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	23	SP-	4.96	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.11	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.15	4.70	195	85
Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	85
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	85
Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP-	3.84	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.40	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.56	3.54	367	85
Austin Hansen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.80	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.99	3.81	204	85
James McArthur R 2025 · 5.06 FIP	22	SP-	5.06	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.44	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.62	3.54	352	84

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.4	$13M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.2	$12M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.1	$11M	+$7M
Totals		$12M		$77M	+$65M