Ryan Birchard
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 207 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.0 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 124 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.52
FIP5.52
K%21.0%
BB%19.4%
K-BB%1.6%
ROS IP124
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 9 | 21 | 105 | 30 | 20 | 2 | 90% | 2.1 | 18.2% | 29.3% | -11.1% | 4.7% | 6.33 | 7.87 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 9 | 21 | 105 | 30 | 20 | 2 | 90% | 2.1 | 28.6% | 19.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 6.33 | 4.32 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 25 | 22 | 104 | 451 | 121 | 73 | 5 | 88% | 4.1 | 20.7% | 18.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 3.91 | 4.22 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 25 | 22 | 104 | 451 | 121 | 73 | 5 | 88% | 4.1 | 26.8% | 16.2% | 10.6% | 1.1% | 3.91 | 3.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 20 | 2 | 33 | 157 | 47 | 46 | 5 | 10% | 1.6 | 24.2% | 32.2% | -8.0% | 3.8% | 4.96 | 7.23 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 118 | 0 | 124 | 522 | 110 | 102 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 19.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 5.52 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 19.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 5.49 | 5.49 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 156 | 679 | 157 | 148 | 18 | — | — | 23.1% | 21.7% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 5.40 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 21.0% | 19.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 5.49 | 5.11 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 116 | 90 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 5.24 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 128 | 542 | 120 | 82 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 5.02 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 542 | 121 | 80 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 14.8% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.91 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 126 | 534 | 119 | 78 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 14.7% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 4.89 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 51 | 40 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 5.21 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 86 | 363 | 80 | 55 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 4.99 | 4.89 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 96 | 64 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 14.8% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.88 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 102 | 67 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 14.7% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 4.86 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 60 | 354 | 1495 | 331 | 227 | 37 | 97% | 5.7 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 4.96 | 4.52 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 128 | 21 | 96% | 5.7 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 4.96 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 33 | 158 | 713 | 150 | 165 | 15 | 60% | 2.9 | 21.1% | 23.2% | -2.1% | 2.1% | 4.45 | 5.42 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 42 | 200 | 904 | 191 | 210 | 19 | 60% | 2.9 | 21.1% | 23.2% | -2.1% | 2.1% | 4.45 | 5.42 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Birchard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.52 | 21.0% | 19.4% | 2.5% | — | 4.98 | 22.0% | 6.4% | 384 | -0.54 | — | — | — |
| James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 78 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 78 |
| Adrian Chaidez R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .281 | 4.68 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 45 | -0.98 | 4.68 | 144 | 77 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 76 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 74 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 74 |
| Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.84 | 29.1% | 10.7% | 68 | +0.50 | 2.64 | 281 | 73 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 73 |
| R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 72 |
| Yohan Ramírez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.2% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.16 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 172 | -0.60 | 3.19 | 652 | 72 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 72 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 72 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 6.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.33 | 18.5% | 15.9% | 5.1% | .302 | 4.59 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 284 | -1.74 | 4.09 | 414 | 72 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 72 |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .306 | 4.44 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 274 | -0.76 | 3.49 | 364 | 72 |
| Channing Austin R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.43 | 15.0% | 15.6% | 1.1% | .304 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 38 | -0.85 | 3.58 | 109 | 71 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 71 |
| Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 71 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 70 |
| Luke Anderson R 2026 · 6.07 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.07 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 4.7% | .363 | 5.70 | 15.4% | -11.1% | 34 | -0.37 | 5.12 | 130 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 127 | 21.9% | 16.2% | 0.97 | 5.11 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Dakota Hudson ('24) | 6 | 92 | 15.0% | 11.1% | 0.91 | 4.25 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |