David Bracho

P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ACHC	2	0	5	1.69	3.10	13.0%	8.7%	—	K 13.0% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.10
2026	21	ACHC	24	10	71	7.23	4.61	23.2%	15.8%	—	K 17.2% · BB 18.6% · FIP 5.71
2027PROJ	22	MLBCHC	9	9	45	5.78	5.78	18.7%	17.6%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCHC	6	6	33	5.37	5.23	20.2%	15.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCHC	8	8	47	5.07	4.92	21.1%	13.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsWilian Bormie (age 22) · Blane Abeyta (age 22) · Radhames Liz (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%18.7%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	9	8	21	103	18	16	3	89%	2.4	11.9%	19.4%	-7.5%	4.4%	8.86	6.95	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	9	8	21	103	18	16	3	89%	2.4	17.5%	15.5%	1.9%	2.9%	8.86	5.49	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	37	160	28	21	0	100%	3.1	11.9%	16.4%	-4.5%	0.0%	3.68	4.17	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	37	160	28	21	0	100%	3.1	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	0.0%	3.68	3.29	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	10.9%	21.6%	-10.6%	1.7%	5.49	5.85	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	10.9%	21.6%	-10.6%	1.7%	5.49	5.85	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	9	3	20	87	14	15	1	33%	2.2	16.1%	17.2%	-1.1%	1.1%	5.49	4.63	—
2025	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
2025	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	5	23	3	2	0	0%	2.7	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	0.0%	1.69	3.10	—
2026	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	17.2%	18.6%	-1.4%	3.1%	7.23	5.71	—
2026	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	17.2%	18.6%	-1.4%	3.1%	7.23	5.71	—
2026	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	10	71	336	78	53	8	42%	3.0	23.2%	15.8%	7.4%	2.4%	7.23	4.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CHC	9	9	45	190	36	33	6	100%	5.0	18.7%	17.6%	1.2%	3.0%	5.78	5.78	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	66	280	57	42	8	100%	5.5	20.2%	15.0%	5.3%	3.0%	5.43	5.29	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	68	287	61	38	8	100%	5.7	21.1%	13.2%	7.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.98	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	69	290	63	35	8	100%	5.7	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	2.9%	4.91	4.79	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	69	290	64	35	9	100%	6.3	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.76	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	68	286	63	34	9	100%	6.2	21.9%	12.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	+0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	66	278	60	34	9	100%	6.0	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.1%	4.85	4.88	+0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	63	265	57	33	9	100%	6.3	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	3.2%	4.95	5.01	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	33	139	28	21	4	100%	5.5	20.2%	15.0%	5.3%	2.9%	5.37	5.23	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	47	198	42	26	6	100%	5.9	21.1%	13.2%	7.9%	2.8%	5.07	4.92	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	56	236	51	29	7	100%	5.6	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	2.8%	4.85	4.73	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	55	30	7	100%	6.0	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	2.8%	4.75	4.70	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	56	31	7	100%	6.1	21.9%	12.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.74	4.74	+0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	56	31	8	100%	6.1	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.79	4.82	+0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	58	245	53	30	8	100%	5.8	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	3.1%	4.88	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	376	1588	342	199	46	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.88	4.46	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	182	106	24	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.88	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		56	33	154	709	102	130	16	59%	2.8	14.3%	18.3%	-4.0%	2.3%	6.19	5.47	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	43	200	921	132	168	21	59%	2.8	14.3%	18.3%	-4.0%	2.3%	6.19	5.47	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Bracho (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	18.7%	17.6%	3.0%	—	5.02	21.0%	7.6%	203	-0.76	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	88
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	87
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	87
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	86
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	85
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	83
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	82
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	82
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	82
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	81
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	81
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	80
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	79
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	79
Alberto Tirado R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	22	SW	5.69	14.7%	18.5%	2.7%	.294	3.82	16.5%	-0.2%	33	-1.87	3.78	247	79
Miguel Medrano R 2021 · 5.49 FIP	23	SP-	5.49	17.7%	15.5%	3.5%	.299	6.10	18.1%	-0.5%	50	+0.61	2.73	232	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	79
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	64	21.2%	13.1%	1.16	5.05
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*