Ben Bybee

P San Jose Giants

Age 23 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1035ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ASF	22	11	78	5.06	4.49	17.8%	5.9%	—	K 13.2% · BB 7.0% · FIP 5.63
2027PROJ	23	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.88	4.88	15.9%	7.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSF	4	4	26	4.60	4.54	18.0%	7.2%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSF	5	5	38	4.48	4.42	19.2%	7.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDustin McGowan (age 23) · Zach Miner (age 24) · Steven Bruce (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%15.9%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	11	78	337	60	20	13	50%	3.6	13.2%	7.0%	6.2%	5.0%	5.06	5.63	—
2026	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	11	78	337	60	20	13	50%	3.6	13.2%	7.0%	6.2%	5.0%	5.06	5.63	—
2026	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	22	11	78	337	60	20	13	50%	3.6	17.8%	5.9%	11.9%	3.9%	5.06	4.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.9%	7.3%	8.7%	3.3%	4.88	4.88	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	61	256	46	19	8	100%	6.7	18.0%	7.2%	10.8%	3.3%	4.73	4.67	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	57	240	46	17	8	100%	7.1	19.2%	7.3%	12.0%	3.2%	4.61	4.55	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	57	239	48	18	8	100%	7.1	19.9%	7.3%	12.6%	3.2%	4.53	4.49	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	55	232	46	17	8	100%	6.9	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	3.3%	4.52	4.52	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	52	220	44	17	7	100%	7.5	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	3.4%	4.57	4.61	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	48	204	40	16	7	100%	6.9	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.5%	4.67	4.74	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	SF	6	6	43	183	35	15	7	100%	7.2	19.3%	8.1%	11.2%	3.7%	4.82	4.92	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	26	110	20	8	3	100%	6.5	18.0%	7.2%	10.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.54	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	38	160	31	12	5	100%	7.6	19.2%	7.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.42	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	45	190	38	14	6	100%	7.5	19.9%	7.3%	12.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	47	198	40	15	6	100%	6.7	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	46	194	39	15	6	100%	7.7	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	3.1%	4.43	4.47	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	44	186	36	15	6	100%	7.3	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.53	4.60	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	40	169	33	14	6	100%	6.7	19.3%	8.1%	11.2%	3.4%	4.67	4.77	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	286	1206	236	91	38	100%	7.1	19.5%	7.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.49	4.12	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	165	64	27	100%	7.1	19.5%	7.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.49	4.12	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		22	11	78	337	44	24	17	50%	3.6	13.2%	7.0%	6.2%	5.0%	5.06	5.63	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	28	200	860	113	60	43	50%	3.6	13.2%	7.0%	6.2%	5.0%	5.06	5.63	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASan Jose Giants · 78 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.63 (+1.16)K% 17.8% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.80%	—	×0.740	13.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.93%	—	×1.180	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.86%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.01%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Bybee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	15.9%	7.3%	3.3%	—	4.57	19.0%	11.8%	174	-0.31	—	—	—
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	94
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	85
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	84
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	84
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	84
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	83
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	83
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.08	18.4%	12.2%	324	+0.88	4.20	474	82
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	82
Jake Odorizzi R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	18.0%	6.6%	2.5%	.281	3.84	22.3%	15.2%	525	+0.04	3.16	1,246	82
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	82
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	82
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	81
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	81
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	81
Matt Smith R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	22	SW	3.77	13.0%	6.4%	1.7%	.340	5.04	14.2%	6.7%	115	+1.27	3.77	163	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	19.0%	7.5%	1.29	4.66
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*