Player 803286
P
San Jose Giants
Age —
—HP
A
peak 0.3 · 2034
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST109
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career (MLE) + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | — | A | San Jose Giants | 13 | 6 | 44 | 192 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 46% | 3.4 | 15.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ROS | — | MLB | SF | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | — | MLB | SF | — | — | 75 | 323 | 71 | 26 | 9 | — | — | 22.1% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 30 | 0 | 31 | 133 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 30 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SF | 31 | 0 | 32 | 136 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SF | 31 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | SF | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | SF | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.98 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | SF | 32 | 0 | 34 | 143 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 25 | MLB | SF | 33 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 7.9% | 18.1% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.87 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 25 | MLB | SF | 33 | 0 | 35 | 146 | 39 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 7.8% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 3.81 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 25 | MLB | SF | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 40 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 7.7% | 19.1% | 2.9% | 3.79 | 3.76 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 25 | MLB | SF | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 7.5% | 19.6% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 3.70 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 25 | MLB | SF | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 42 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 7.4% | 20.1% | 2.8% | 3.68 | 3.65 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 25 | MLB | SF | 34 | 0 | 36 | 153 | 43 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.3% | 20.6% | 2.8% | 3.63 | 3.59 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 6 | 44 | 192 | 30 | 17 | 7 | 46% | 3.4 | 15.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 4.71 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 27 | 200 | 866 | 135 | 77 | 32 | 46% | 3.4 | 15.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Player 803286 (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 84 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 80 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 79 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 79 |
| Michael King R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.55 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .316 | 2.73 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 219 | -1.82 | 1.96 | 948 | 78 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 76 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 76 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 76 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 75 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 74 |
| Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 74 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 74 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 74 |
| Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 74 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 73 |
| Jake Lyons R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 73 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 72 |
| Greyfer Eregua R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.85 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 126 | 72 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 34 | 25.6% | 8.1% | 1.13 | 3.98 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |