Jose Guedez

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 193 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+HOU	16	12	67	3.24	3.23	26.9%	12.9%	—	K 20.7% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.13
2025	23	A+HOU	20	11	83	4.68	4.13	20.1%	11.7%	—	K 15.4% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.64
2026	24	MIX2 levels	43	0	62	5.63	4.11	21.8%	9.6%	—	K 17.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	67	0	70	5.51	5.51	15.7%	13.9%	-0.7
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBHOU	31	0	33	5.36	5.34	17.0%	13.4%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	44	0	46	5.30	5.31	17.4%	13.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCooper Adams (age 24) · Stephen Johnson (age 25) · Cameron Foster (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%15.7%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%1.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	7	2	26	101	36	8	0	29%	3.7	24.2%	9.9%	14.3%	0.0%	0.69	2.31	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	7	2	26	101	36	8	0	29%	3.7	35.6%	7.9%	27.7%	0.0%	0.69	1.25	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	40	184	52	35	0	57%	2.9	20.1%	21.1%	-1.0%	0.0%	4.50	4.08	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	40	184	52	35	0	57%	2.9	28.3%	19.0%	9.2%	0.0%	4.50	3.12	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	12	67	286	77	37	4	75%	4.2	20.7%	14.9%	5.9%	1.6%	3.24	4.13	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	12	67	286	77	37	4	75%	4.2	20.7%	14.9%	5.9%	1.6%	3.24	4.13	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	16	12	67	286	77	37	4	75%	4.2	26.9%	12.9%	14.0%	1.4%	3.24	3.23	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	20	11	83	369	74	43	8	55%	4.1	15.4%	13.4%	2.0%	2.1%	4.68	4.64	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	20	11	83	369	74	43	8	55%	4.1	15.4%	13.4%	2.0%	2.1%	4.68	4.64	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	20	11	83	369	74	43	8	55%	4.1	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	2.2%	4.68	4.13	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	62	280	61	27	8	0%	1.4	17.5%	10.7%	6.7%	3.5%	5.63	4.91	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	62	280	61	27	8	0%	1.4	17.5%	10.7%	6.7%	3.5%	5.63	4.91	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	62	280	61	27	8	0%	1.4	21.8%	9.6%	12.1%	2.9%	5.63	4.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	67	0	70	296	47	41	9	0%	1.0	15.7%	13.9%	1.8%	2.9%	5.51	5.51	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	71	0	74	314	53	42	9	0%	1.0	17.0%	13.4%	3.6%	2.9%	5.36	5.34	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	70	0	73	309	54	41	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	13.2%	4.3%	3.0%	5.30	5.31	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	68	0	71	300	53	39	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	3.1%	5.30	5.34	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	65	0	68	287	50	38	9	0%	1.0	17.5%	13.2%	4.3%	3.2%	5.38	5.45	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	269	46	36	9	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.5%	3.6%	3.4%	5.53	5.62	-0.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	31	0	33	139	24	19	4	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.4%	3.6%	2.9%	5.36	5.34	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	44	0	46	194	34	26	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	13.2%	4.3%	3.0%	5.30	5.31	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	51	0	54	228	40	30	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	3.1%	5.30	5.34	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	52	0	55	232	41	31	7	0%	1.1	17.5%	13.2%	4.3%	3.2%	5.38	5.45	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52	0	55	232	40	31	8	0%	1.1	17.2%	13.5%	3.6%	3.4%	5.53	5.62	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	0	243	1026	178	136	32	0%	1.1	17.4%	13.3%	4.1%	3.1%	5.38	5.04	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	112	26	0%	1.1	17.4%	13.3%	4.1%	3.1%	5.38	5.04	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		100	33	278	1220	227	171	22	33%	2.8	18.6%	14.0%	4.6%	1.8%	4.15	4.30	-3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	24	200	879	163	123	16	33%	2.8	18.6%	14.0%	4.6%	1.8%	4.15	4.30	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Guedez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	15.7%	13.9%	2.9%	—	5.33	17.3%	4.1%	219	-0.18	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	86
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	83
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	83
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	83
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	83
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	80
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	79
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	79
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	79
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	79
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	70	17.1%	13.4%	1.19	5.39
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*