Teddy McGraw — OGILVIE

Teddy McGraw P Arkansas Travelers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%23.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%15.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	9	40	8	4	0	100%	2.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.68	—
2024	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	9	40	8	4	0	100%	2.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.68	—
2024	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	4	4	9	40	8	4	0	100%	2.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.64	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	28	120	33	8	1	86%	2.0	22.3%	5.5%	16.7%	1.5%	3.18	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	28	120	33	8	1	86%	2.0	22.3%	5.5%	16.7%	1.5%	3.18	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	28	120	33	8	1	86%	2.0	27.5%	6.7%	20.8%	0.8%	3.18	2.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	32	2	40	156	29	11	4	6%	1.2	15.6%	7.9%	7.6%	3.8%	3.63	4.90	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	32	2	40	156	29	11	4	6%	1.2	15.6%	7.9%	7.6%	3.8%	3.63	4.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	SEA	4	2	5	20	3	2	0	50%	1.2	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	0.0%	1.80	3.10	—
2026	24	A RAW	SEA	2	0	3	11	2	0	0	0%	1.5	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.56	—
2026	24	AA RAW	SEA	26	0	32	125	24	9	4	0%	1.2	19.2%	7.2%	12.0%	3.2%	4.26	4.15	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	2.9%	4.07	4.07	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	46	181	35	13	5	—	—	19.3%	7.2%	12.1%	2.6%	3.69	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SEA	87	0	91	385	93	30	11	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	2.9%	4.05	4.03	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	87	0	91	385	93	30	11	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.8%	16.3%	2.9%	4.04	4.02	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	SEA	85	0	90	379	91	30	11	0%	1.1	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	3.0%	4.07	4.07	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	SEA	83	0	87	367	88	30	11	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	3.1%	4.13	4.16	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	SEA	79	0	83	351	83	29	11	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.3%	15.4%	3.2%	4.23	4.29	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	SEA	74	0	78	330	83	26	11	0%	1.1	25.3%	7.8%	17.5%	3.4%	4.21	4.20	+0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	SEA	38	0	40	169	41	13	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	2.8%	4.01	3.99	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	58	0	61	258	62	20	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.8%	16.3%	2.8%	4.00	3.98	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	SEA	67	0	70	296	71	23	9	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	2.9%	4.03	4.03	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	SEA	70	0	73	308	74	25	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	3.0%	4.09	4.12	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	SEA	70	0	73	308	73	26	10	0%	1.0	23.6%	8.3%	15.4%	3.1%	4.19	4.25	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	SEA	67	0	70	296	75	23	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	7.8%	17.5%	3.3%	4.16	4.15	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		369	0	387	1634	395	130	49	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.0%	16.2%	3.0%	4.09	3.72	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	67	25	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.0%	16.2%	3.0%	4.09	3.72	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		50	18	77	316	59	23	8	36%	1.5	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	2.4%	3.52	3.79	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	47	200	824	154	60	20	36%	1.5	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	2.4%	3.52	3.79	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Teddy McGraw (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	23.9%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.04	24.1%	16.2%	272	-0.03	—	—	—
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	84
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	78
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	78
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	78
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	78
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	78
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	78
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	77
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	77
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	77
Ian Gardeck R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	24	SU	2.93	22.4%	7.7%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	105	77
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	77
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	77
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	77
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	77
T.J. Weir R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	20.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.319	3.43	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.54	3.15	349	77
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	76
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	76
Danny Barnes R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	25	SU	3.18	22.9%	7.1%	2.0%	.355	3.38	24.9%	17.6%	182	+0.20	1.75	243	76
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	24.1%	8.0%	1.17	4.11
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88