Teddy McGraw
P
Arkansas Travelers
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
K%23.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%14.9%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 4 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.68 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 4 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 28 | 120 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 86% | 2.0 | 22.3% | 5.5% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 3.18 | 2.69 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 28 | 120 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 86% | 2.0 | 27.5% | 6.7% | 20.8% | 0.8% | 3.18 | 2.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 16 | 2 | 19 | 76 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 12% | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SEA | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 91 | 34 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SEA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 109 | 456 | 106 | 40 | 14 | — | — | 23.2% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 3.96 | 3.46 | +2.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 3.77 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 104 | 0 | 109 | 461 | 111 | 40 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 115 | 0 | 121 | 511 | 124 | 44 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.12 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 114 | 0 | 119 | 504 | 121 | 43 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 110 | 0 | 116 | 489 | 117 | 43 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 105 | 0 | 110 | 467 | 110 | 42 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 99 | 0 | 104 | 439 | 102 | 41 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 92 | 0 | 97 | 409 | 94 | 39 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 85 | 0 | 90 | 378 | 85 | 38 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.85 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 78 | 0 | 82 | 347 | 76 | 36 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 5.08 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 49 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 77 | 0 | 81 | 342 | 83 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.08 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 89 | 0 | 93 | 393 | 94 | 34 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 93 | 0 | 98 | 414 | 99 | 36 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 92 | 0 | 97 | 410 | 97 | 37 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.27 | 4.34 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 89 | 0 | 93 | 393 | 91 | 36 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 85 | 0 | 89 | 376 | 86 | 36 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.71 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 79 | 0 | 83 | 350 | 79 | 35 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 73 | 0 | 77 | 325 | 71 | 34 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 723 | 0 | 760 | 3207 | 750 | 296 | 105 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.08 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 78 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 34 | 18 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 17 | 5 | 53% | 1.6 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 3.21 | 3.30 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 64 | 200 | 843 | 178 | 59 | 17 | 53% | 1.6 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 3.21 | 3.30 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Teddy McGraw (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.14 | 24.1% | 15.5% | 350 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 78 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 77 |
| Ariel Peña R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.91 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.00 | 3.91 | 223 | 76 |
| Alex Valverde R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .321 | 6.00 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 166 | +2.28 | 3.72 | 423 | 76 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 74 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 74 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 74 |
| Alex Colomé R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .309 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.39 | 2.72 | 530 | 73 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2029 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 72 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 72 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 72 |
| Trevor May R 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.04 | 22.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .334 | 3.69 | 28.8% | 19.5% | 95 | +0.65 | 3.04 | 432 | 72 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.09 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .304 | 3.92 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 166 | -1.17 | 3.59 | 307 | 71 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 70 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 318 | 70 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 70 |
| Travis Lakins R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.09 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .241 | 4.01 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 122 | +0.92 | 3.09 | 374 | 70 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 69 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.39 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 1.1% | .211 | 4.70 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 154 | +1.31 | 3.39 | 236 | 69 |
| Corey Baker R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.4% | .295 | 4.83 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.15 | 2.94 | 267 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 104 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.26 | 4.39 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |