Chandler Welch — OGILVIE

Chandler Welch P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%14.5%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%-1.5%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	1.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	1.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2024	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	1.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.50	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	54	250	39	37	6	100%	4.5	11.7%	17.2%	-5.5%	2.5%	5.87	5.69	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	54	250	39	37	6	100%	4.5	11.7%	17.2%	-5.5%	2.5%	5.87	5.69	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	54	250	39	37	6	100%	4.5	15.6%	14.8%	0.8%	2.4%	5.87	5.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	2	66	304	65	40	8	7%	2.5	18.1%	14.7%	3.3%	2.7%	6.11	4.95	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	2	66	304	65	40	8	7%	2.5	18.1%	14.7%	3.3%	2.7%	6.11	4.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIL	25	2	60	273	64	35	6	8%	2.4	23.4%	12.8%	10.6%	2.2%	5.37	3.95	—
2026	23	AA RAW	MIL	2	0	6	31	1	5	2	0%	3.0	3.2%	16.1%	-12.9%	6.5%	13.50	8.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	63	0	67	281	48	39	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.8%	3.1%	2.8%	5.50	5.36	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	285	52	35	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.5%	6.0%	2.8%	5.21	5.06	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	285	55	35	8	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	2.9%	5.05	4.97	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	63	0	66	280	54	34	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	2.9%	5.01	4.99	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	61	0	64	272	52	34	8	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.4%	6.8%	3.0%	5.05	5.07	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	28	0	29	122	21	17	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	13.8%	3.1%	2.8%	5.50	5.36	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	43	0	45	190	35	24	5	0%	1.0	18.4%	12.5%	6.0%	2.8%	5.21	5.06	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	50	0	53	224	43	27	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	2.9%	5.05	4.97	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	54	0	57	241	47	30	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	2.9%	5.01	4.99	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	54	0	57	241	46	30	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.4%	6.8%	3.0%	5.05	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		229	0	241	1017	192	127	29	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	2.9%	5.12	4.68	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	105	24	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	2.9%	5.12	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		40	15	122	560	87	88	15	38%	3.0	15.6%	15.7%	-0.1%	2.6%	5.92	5.21	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	25	200	921	143	144	24	38%	3.0	15.6%	15.7%	-0.1%	2.6%	5.92	5.21	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chandler Welch (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	14.5%	15.9%	2.9%	—	5.13	18.2%	5.4%	201	-0.72	—	—	—
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	85
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	83
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	82
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	81
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	80
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	79
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	78
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	78
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	78
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	78
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	78
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	77
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	77
Deyvis Julian R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	21	SW	4.74	11.2%	14.7%	1.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	116	76
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	76
Jordan Mikel R 2022 · 6.04 FIP	23	SW	6.04	12.8%	11.6%	4.7%	.229	3.65	20.1%	11.3%	115	-2.39	3.04	195	76
Tyler Peyton R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	23	SW	5.25	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	.298	4.44	12.8%	1.6%	115	-0.81	3.86	183	75
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	62	18.2%	13.0%	1.12	5.23
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39