Chandler Welch
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
+0.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%8.1%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 12 | 12 | 54 | 250 | 39 | 37 | 6 | 11.7% | 17.2% | 2.6% | 5.87 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 45 | 26 | 7 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 58 | 241 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 50 | 24 | 7 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 50 | 23 | 7 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 48 | 23 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 37 | 20 | 6 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 13 | 59 | 270 | 34 | 45 | 7 | 12.7% | 16.7% | 2.4% | 5.61 | 5.47 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 44 | 200 | 910 | 115 | 152 | 24 | 12.7% | 16.7% | 2.4% | 5.61 | 5.47 | -0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chandler Welch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.54 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 166 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 96 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 94 |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 94 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 94 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 93 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .310 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 110 | -0.63 | 2.36 | 229 | 92 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 92 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.49 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 98 | -0.93 | 2.46 | 228 | 92 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.34 | 3.86 | 242 | 92 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.28 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .350 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.57 | 3.68 | 147 | 92 |
| William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 91 |
| Ralston Cash R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.5% | .240 | 3.89 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 185 | -0.97 | 3.02 | 242 | 91 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 91 |
| Kieran Lovegrove R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.00 | 17.9% | 12.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.48 | 19.3% | 4.5% | 76 | -0.52 | 3.80 | 215 | 91 |
| Kelvin Ramirez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .307 | 4.53 | 20.0% | -2.2% | 48 | -0.05 | 3.36 | 178 | 90 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.27 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .248 | 4.37 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.10 | 3.41 | 330 | 90 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.95 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .338 | 3.75 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.20 | 3.30 | 218 | 90 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.37 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.94 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 135 | -0.43 | 3.84 | 213 | 90 |
| Miguel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.1% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 171 | 90 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||