Chandler Welch
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
K%19.7%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.12 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.50 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 54 | 250 | 39 | 37 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 11.7% | 17.2% | -5.5% | 2.2% | 5.87 | 5.47 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 54 | 250 | 39 | 37 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 15.6% | 14.8% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 5.87 | 5.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 18 | 1 | 45 | 201 | 45 | 27 | 5 | 6% | 2.5 | 17.2% | 15.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.00 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 83 | 360 | 76 | 45 | 9 | — | — | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 37 | 0 | 38 | 163 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 71 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.23 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 96 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 14 | 100 | 457 | 67 | 74 | 12 | 45% | 3.2 | 14.7% | 16.2% | -1.6% | 2.5% | 5.38 | 5.31 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 28 | 200 | 911 | 134 | 148 | 23 | 45% | 3.2 | 14.7% | 16.2% | -1.6% | 2.5% | 5.38 | 5.31 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chandler Welch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.61 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 38 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 88 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 84 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 84 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 84 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 84 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 83 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 82 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.92 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .309 | 4.78 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.86 | 3.92 | 188 | 82 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 82 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 82 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 82 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 82 |
| Michael Santos R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .289 | 4.91 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 49 | +0.41 | 2.26 | 276 | 81 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 81 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 80 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 80 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 80 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 80 |
| Matt Marsh R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 80 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 38 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 1.09 | 4.75 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |