Adam Falinski — OGILVIE

Adam Falinski P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 221 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%20.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP31

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	40	0	69	328	65	43	9	0%	1.7	14.9%	15.2%	-0.3%	3.5%	6.62	5.70	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	40	0	69	328	65	43	9	0%	1.7	14.9%	15.2%	-0.3%	3.5%	6.62	5.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	MIN	24	0	40	186	38	19	5	0%	1.7	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.7%	5.62	4.14	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIN	16	0	29	142	27	24	4	0%	1.8	19.0%	16.9%	2.1%	2.8%	7.98	5.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	66	0	70	294	63	33	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.81	4.74	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	67	0	70	298	65	31	9	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.59	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	67	0	70	298	66	31	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.56	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	66	0	69	293	65	31	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	64	0	67	284	63	30	9	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	3.1%	4.64	4.68	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	61	0	64	271	59	29	9	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.8%	11.0%	3.3%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	29	0	30	127	27	14	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.81	4.74	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	45	0	47	198	43	21	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.59	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	53	0	56	236	52	25	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.56	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	56	0	59	249	55	26	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	57	0	60	253	56	27	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	3.1%	4.64	4.68	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	55	0	58	245	53	26	8	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.8%	11.0%	3.3%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		295	0	310	1308	287	139	40	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	3.1%	4.66	4.28	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	90	26	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	3.1%	4.66	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		40	0	69	328	49	50	12	0%	1.7	14.9%	15.2%	-0.3%	3.5%	6.62	5.70	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	0	200	946	141	144	33	0%	1.7	14.9%	15.2%	-0.3%	3.5%	6.62	5.70	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Falinski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	20.4%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.63	21.8%	11.1%	211	-0.36	—	—	—
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	91
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	90
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	89
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	89
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	89
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	89
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Vince Arobio R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.67	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.80	3.67	118	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	63	21.8%	10.8%	1.18	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81