Ty Doucette

1B Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 L/R A HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1180ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	A+/ACIN	310	.281/.395/.527	16	1	98	—	.227/.317/.418
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCIN	420	.232/.314/.408	15	6	103	0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBCIN	86	.238/.319/.427	3	1	105	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBCIN	161	.239/.321/.430	7	2	106	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

ISO97

wOBA96

wRC+95

BB%83

Z-Con%77

Whiff%70

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsChristin Stewart (age 23) · Andrés Chaparro (age 24) · Jaff Decker (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 195 proj PA

wRC+†103

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .312 / .405

PA195

HR7

K%26

BB%10

ISO176

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	112	92	27	5	1	7	18	23	2	1	0	293	420	598	1.017	304	323	21	16	440	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	198	168	46	9	0	9	27	40	2	0	0	274	381	488	869	214	308	20	14	383	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	112	97	24	4	1	6	13	29	2	1	0	247	348	495	843	247	287	26	12	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	198	176	38	7	0	7	19	54	2	0	0	216	299	375	674	159	264	27	10	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	310	274	62	11	1	13	31	84	4	1	0	226	314	416	730	190	275	27	10	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	310	260	73	14	1	16	45	63	4	1	0	281	395	527	922	246	313	20	15	404	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	310	272	62	11	1	13	31	84	4	1	0	228	314	419	733	191	272	27	10	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	310	272	62	11	1	13	31	84	4	1	0	228	314	419	733	191	272	27	10	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	420	373	86	15	2	15	40	110	4	6	2	232	314	408	722	176	284	26	10	321	103	+2	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	38%	228	202	47	8	1	9	22	59	2	3	1	234	316	414	730	179	285	26	10	324	105	+1	+0	+0	-4	+5	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	291	258	62	11	2	11	28	75	3	4	1	236	317	417	734	181	285	26	10	325	106	+2	+0	+0	-5	+6	0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	64%	337	299	71	12	2	13	32	86	3	5	1	237	318	418	736	182	285	26	9	326	107	+3	+1	+0	-6	+7	0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66%	357	316	74	13	2	13	34	91	4	5	1	236	317	415	731	179	285	25	10	324	106	+2	+1	+0	-6	+8	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	67%	364	323	75	13	2	13	34	93	4	4	1	234	315	409	724	175	284	26	9	321	104	+2	+0	-1	-7	+8	0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	66%	361	321	75	13	2	13	34	93	3	2	1	231	311	402	713	171	282	26	9	317	101	+0	+0	-1	-6	+8	0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	353	314	70	12	1	12	33	92	3	1	1	228	307	393	700	166	279	26	9	312	97	-1	-0	-2	-6	+8	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	38%	86	77	17	3	0	3	8	22	1	1	0	238	319	427	746	189	287	26	9	330	105	+1	+0	+0	-2	+2	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	161	143	35	6	1	7	15	41	2	2	1	239	321	430	751	191	287	25	9	332	106	+1	+0	+0	-3	+3	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	64%	214	190	46	8	1	9	20	55	2	3	1	240	321	432	752	191	287	26	9	332	107	+2	+0	+0	-4	+5	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	66%	234	208	49	8	1	9	22	60	2	3	1	239	320	428	748	189	287	26	9	330	106	+2	+0	+0	-4	+5	0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	67%	243	216	52	9	1	10	23	62	2	2	1	238	318	422	739	184	285	26	9	327	104	+1	+0	-0	-4	+5	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	66%	237	211	49	8	1	9	22	61	2	2	1	235	314	414	729	180	283	26	9	323	101	+0	+0	-1	-4	+5	0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	230	205	48	8	1	9	21	60	2	1	0	231	310	405	715	174	280	26	9	318	97	-1	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1405	1250	296	50	6	56	131	361	13	14	5	237	316	421	736	184	286	26	9	327	103	+6	+1	-3	-25	+30	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	137	23	3	26	61	167	6	6	2	237	316	422	738	185	286	26	9	327	103	+3	+0	-1	-12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2796	2479	576	100	14	104	267	724	28	28	8	232	314	410	724	177	283	26	10	320	103	+10	+2	-4	-44	+54	1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	133	23	3	24	62	168	7	7	2	231	313	406	719	175	282	26	10	320	103	+3	+1	-1	-12	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 198 PAwOBA .375 → .293 (−82)K% 20.2% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.20%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	27.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.64%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	9.41%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.79%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.969	—	19.49%
Doubles /BIP	7.03%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.969	—	5.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.969	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.03%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	5.62%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .375 → .293; ISO .214 → .165; BABIP .308 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 112 PAwOBA .429 → .350 (−79)K% 20.5% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.54%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	26.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.07%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	11.55%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.43%
Singles /BIP	20.29%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.009	×1.012	19.06%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.009	×1.012	5.99%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.009	×1.012	1.26%
Home runs /BIP	10.14%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	8.21%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .429 → .350; ISO .304 → .246; BABIP .323 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Leroy Stanton'70-'78 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,883 PA	4.3	2,883	77	36	245*	314*	430*	-33	-1	6.5	7.8
/162	664	18	8	-7.7	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 9
#2Robert Fick'98-'07 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,658 PA	4.0	2,658	69	6	249*	318*	393*	-24	-10	3.9	5.0
/162	664	17	1	-6.0	-2.4	1.0	pk7: 6
#3Bob Hamelin'93-'98 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,505 PA	2.3	1,505	67	11	234*	336*	451*	-34	-3	3.5	3.5
/162	664	30	5	-15.0	-1.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Dan Johnson'05-'15 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,625 PA	2.4	1,625	57	1	226*	330*	401*	-30	-3	2.2	2.8
/162	664	23	0	-12.2	-1.2	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Matt LeCroy'00-'07 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	60	0	250*	318*	428*	-17	-7	2.3	2.6
/162	664	26	0	-7.3	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.4	1,601	59	17	234	312	411	-29	-8	2.3	2.3
/162	664	24	7	-11.9	-3.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#6Connor Joelast yr '25 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	35	13	241	335	387	-21	-16	1.9	1.9
/162	664	14	5	-8.3	-6.6	0.7	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ty Doucette (OGILVIE)	23	40→45	55→60	43→48	62	230/312/405	175	284	7	3	26%	10%	103	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Christin Stewart 2017 · AA	23	40→48	52→55	46→45	48	209/301/378	169	282	20	5	32%	10%	93	+0.8	223/297/391	168	287	20	3	28%	8%	94	+0.9	227/301/404	177	282	22	1	27%	8%	98	+1.0
●Andrés Chaparro 2023 · AA	24	45→51	54→60	47→40	46	235/305/416	181	288	22	6	27%	8%	103	+1.5	231/294/398	167	282	20	5	25%	7%	95	+0.9	240/313/431	191	283	24	2	24%	8%	107	+1.3
✕Jaff Decker 2012 · AA	22	43→52	53→55	47→55	49	220/307/392	172	289	20	10	30%	10%	98	+1.2	218/300/354	136	289	14	9	27%	10%	86	+0.3	231/308/347	116	299	10	13	24%	9%	86	+0.2
●Kyle Manzardo 2024 · AAA	24	44→43	55→60	43→40	51	233/307/422	188	269	22	3	22%	9%	105	+1.7	228/306/417	189	276	23	4	26%	9%	103	+1.6	223/305/412	189	273	24	2	27%	9%	102	+1.3
✕CJ Kayfus 2024 · A	22	47→51	50	50→45	52	237/321/397	160	291	18	14	24%	10%	104	+1.6	239/317/398	159	333	15	8	30%	9%	103	+1.5	236/317/395	159	333	14	8	31%	9%	100	+0.9
✕Justin Nelson 2006 · A	23	43→41	52→55	47→45	45	225/290/398	173	287	19	10	28%	8%	93	+0.8	212/282/387	175	300	20	6	34%	8%	87	+0.4	202/277/382	179	287	21	3	36%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Josiah Sightler 2024 · A	24	48	51→55	49→40	41	244/298/398	154	313	21	6	29%	6%	96	+1.0	189/248/316	127	353	16	6	48%	6%	58	-1.7	119/183/233	114	249	17	4	57%	6%	14	-2.6
●Vinnie Pasquantino 2022 · AA	24	47→51	55→60	52→40	52	246/315/438	191	263	22	6	17%	8%	111	+2.1	254/325/441	187	265	22	4	14%	9%	116	+2.5	258/321/454	196	268	25	2	15%	8%	118	+2.6
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Jerry Sands 2011 · AA	23	45→46	58→60	53→45	46	240/305/446	206	289	27	9	27%	8%	109	+2.0	223/289/391	168	285	20	5	28%	8%	91	+0.6	232/297/374	143	282	16	2	23%	8%	88	+0.2
●Triston Casas 2022 · AAA	22	47→49	51→60	48→40	49	236/311/401	164	296	19	8	26%	9%	101	+1.4	242/332/433	191	299	23	4	26%	12%	116	+2.5	238/335/441	203	292	26	0	27%	12%	120	+1.9
✕Zack Shannon 2019 · A	23	47	54→60	48→40	43	243/303/423	180	307	21	3	28%	7%	103	+1.6	213/272/347	134	301	15	5	33%	7%	74	-0.5	189/250/315	127	264	16	3	34%	7%	56	-1.2
✕Jeff Larish 2008 · AA	25	45	53→55	44→45	51	233/316/410	177	282	20	6	25%	10%	105	+1.7	232/305/401	169	298	20	4	28%	9%	99	+1.3	227/299/397	170	294	21	2	29%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Brandon Allen 2009 · AA	23	42→49	53→55	50	39	222/272/398	176	294	20	9	32%	6%	86	+0.3	232/305/413	181	296	21	9	28%	9%	101	+1.4	228/311/413	185	290	22	9	28%	10%	103	+1.5
✕Jarred Kelenic 2021 · AA	22	45→54	54→60	53→50	43	235/291/415	180	301	21	14	29%	7%	97	+1.1	229/294/412	183	290	21	13	27%	8%	97	+1.1	230/297/414	184	294	20	15	28%	8%	99	+1.1
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2023 · AAA	24	43→47	55	47→45	44	231/288/413	182	282	23	7	27%	7%	96	+1.0	222/289/385	163	272	20	8	25%	8%	89	+0.5	209/283/365	156	249	19	8	24%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Tyler Locklear 2024 · AA	23	48→53	51→50	53→50	46	239/324/402	162	306	18	11	27%	8%	107	+1.8	243/321/392	149	323	16	12	28%	8%	103	+1.5	245/324/392	147	326	16	13	28%	8%	102	+1.2
●Scott Schebler 2015 · AA	24	44→52	54→60	53→50	39	231/285/418	187	290	21	10	28%	5%	96	+1.0	234/291/418	184	281	21	10	25%	5%	98	+1.2	244/310/439	195	282	24	5	23%	6%	109	+1.8
●Jack Suwinski 2022 · AA	24	42→43	51→60	45→50	46	210/291/368	158	305	19	9	36%	10%	86	+0.3	213/300/408	195	286	26	11	33%	10%	99	+1.3	203/291/399	196	263	27	11	33%	10%	94	+0.8
✕J.D. Mundy 2022 · A	24	47	51→55	47→30	44	234/301/398	164	317	19	4	31%	8%	97	+1.1	210/274/337	127	319	13	5	36%	7%	72	-0.7	174/240/284	110	276	12	0	39%	7%	47	-1.1

Ty Doucette

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps