Grayson Saunier

P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	21	2	32	4.78	3.85	24.2%	12.8%	—	K 17.8% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	16	0	17	5.15	5.15	19.8%	13.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	12	0	13	4.94	4.86	20.8%	12.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKasey Ford (age 23) · Junior Rincon (age 23) · Easton Sikorski (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%19.8%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP17

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	2	32	149	36	19	3	10%	1.5	17.8%	14.9%	2.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.98	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	2	32	149	36	19	3	10%	1.5	17.8%	14.9%	2.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.98	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	2	32	149	36	19	3	10%	1.5	24.2%	12.8%	11.4%	2.0%	4.78	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	16	0	17	72	14	10	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.5%	6.3%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	28	0	30	125	26	15	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.0%	4.94	4.86	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	12	0	13	55	11	7	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.0%	4.94	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	11	6	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.0%	4.94	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	95	32	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.0%	4.94	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		21	2	32	149	27	22	4	10%	1.5	17.8%	14.9%	2.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.98	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	12	200	931	166	139	25	10%	1.5	17.8%	14.9%	2.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.98	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Saunier (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	19.8%	13.5%	3.0%	—	4.86	20.8%	8.8%	30	-0.29	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	92
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	91
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	90
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	89
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	88
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	87
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	87
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	86
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	86
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	86
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	86
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	283	85