Colby Holcombe

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ATOR	6	5	15	1.80	2.90	19.7%	11.5%	—	K 14.6% · BB 13.5% · FIP 3.59
2025	22	MIX2 levels	25	15	75	5.40	3.73	20.4%	13.1%	—	K 15.2% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.48
2026	23	MIX3 levels	17	4	29	9.00	6.31	17.1%	15.0%	—	K 13.8% · BB 17.8% · FIP 6.64
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	54	0	57	6.20	6.20	13.4%	17.7%	-1.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTOR	28	0	29	5.88	5.78	15.4%	15.8%	-0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTOR	43	0	45	5.68	5.62	16.6%	15.2%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTed Stuka (age 24) · Wirkin Estevez (age 24) · Drew Conover (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.20

FIP6.20

K%13.4%

BB%17.7%

K-BB%-4.3%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	5	15	61	12	7	0	83%	2.5	14.6%	13.5%	1.0%	0.0%	1.80	3.59	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	5	15	61	12	7	0	83%	2.5	14.6%	13.5%	1.0%	0.0%	1.80	3.59	—
2024	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	5	15	61	12	7	0	83%	2.5	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	0.0%	1.80	2.90	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	75	343	70	45	4	60%	3.0	15.2%	15.4%	-0.2%	1.3%	5.40	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	75	343	70	45	4	60%	3.0	15.2%	15.4%	-0.2%	1.3%	5.40	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	75	343	70	45	4	60%	3.0	20.4%	13.1%	7.3%	1.2%	5.40	3.73	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	4	29	140	24	21	6	24%	1.7	13.8%	17.8%	-4.0%	4.5%	9.00	6.64	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	4	29	140	24	21	6	24%	1.7	13.8%	17.8%	-4.0%	4.5%	9.00	6.64	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	4	29	140	24	21	6	24%	1.7	17.1%	15.0%	2.1%	4.3%	9.00	6.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	54	0	57	241	32	43	7	0%	1.1	13.4%	17.7%	-4.3%	2.9%	6.20	6.20	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	288	44	45	8	0%	1.1	15.4%	15.8%	-0.4%	2.9%	5.88	5.78	-0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	288	48	44	8	0%	1.1	16.6%	15.2%	1.3%	2.9%	5.68	5.62	-0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	284	48	43	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	15.0%	1.9%	3.0%	5.60	5.59	-0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	62	0	65	276	47	41	9	0%	1.1	16.9%	15.0%	1.9%	3.1%	5.61	5.64	-0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	59	0	62	263	44	40	9	0%	1.1	16.7%	15.2%	1.5%	3.2%	5.71	5.77	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	28	0	29	122	19	19	4	0%	1.0	15.4%	15.8%	-0.4%	2.9%	5.88	5.78	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	43	0	45	190	31	29	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	15.2%	1.3%	2.9%	5.68	5.62	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	50	0	52	220	37	33	7	0%	1.0	16.9%	15.0%	1.9%	3.0%	5.60	5.59	-0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	52	0	55	232	39	35	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	15.0%	1.9%	3.1%	5.61	5.64	-0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	52	0	55	232	39	35	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	15.2%	1.5%	3.2%	5.71	5.77	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	0	236	998	166	152	30	0%	1.1	16.6%	15.2%	1.4%	3.0%	5.68	5.30	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	129	25	0%	1.1	16.6%	15.2%	1.4%	3.0%	5.68	5.30	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		48	24	119	544	80	86	11	50%	2.5	14.8%	15.8%	-1.0%	2.0%	5.82	4.94	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	40	200	914	135	144	18	50%	2.5	14.8%	15.8%	-1.0%	2.0%	5.82	4.94	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colby Holcombe (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.20	13.4%	17.7%	2.9%	—	5.66	16.3%	0.9%	204	-0.54	—	—	—
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	84
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	84
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	81
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	77
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.33	21.4%	7.0%	173	-0.73	4.21	254	77
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	75
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	75
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	75
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	75
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	74
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	74
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	74
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	74
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	74
David Whitehead R 2016 · 6.00 FIP	24	SW	6.00	10.7%	19.2%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	217	73
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	73
Robbie Peto R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	24	SU	5.39	15.6%	19.4%	2.1%	.242	5.75	15.3%	1.9%	80	+0.36	5.39	232	72
Elian Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	24	SW	5.60	18.3%	21.9%	2.3%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	109	72
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	72
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.36	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.25	2.10	351	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	65	16.0%	15.6%	1.17	5.77
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*