Colby Holcombe — OGILVIE

Colby Holcombe P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs A+ peak 0.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%13.8%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%-3.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	5	15	61	12	7	0	83%	2.5	14.6%	13.5%	1.0%	0.0%	1.80	3.59	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	5	15	61	12	7	0	83%	2.5	14.6%	13.5%	1.0%	0.0%	1.80	3.59	—
2024	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	5	15	61	12	7	0	83%	2.5	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	0.0%	1.80	2.90	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	75	343	70	45	4	60%	3.0	15.2%	15.4%	-0.2%	1.3%	5.40	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	75	343	70	45	4	60%	3.0	15.2%	15.4%	-0.2%	1.3%	5.40	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	75	343	70	45	4	60%	3.0	20.4%	13.1%	7.3%	1.2%	5.40	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	17	4	29	140	24	21	6	24%	1.7	13.8%	17.8%	-4.0%	4.5%	9.00	6.64	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	17	4	29	140	24	21	6	24%	1.7	13.8%	17.8%	-4.0%	4.5%	9.00	6.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	TOR	5	2	8	39	7	5	1	40%	1.7	17.9%	12.8%	5.1%	2.6%	9.72	4.62	—
2026	23	A RAW	TOR	2	0	2	17	2	3	2	0%	1.1	11.8%	17.6%	-5.9%	11.8%	30.86	10.80	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TOR	10	2	18	84	15	13	3	20%	1.8	17.9%	15.5%	2.4%	3.6%	5.89	5.51	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	5	0	5	22	3	4	1	0%	1.0	13.8%	17.1%	-3.3%	2.7%	5.96	5.96	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	34	162	27	25	7	—	—	16.7%	15.3%	1.4%	4.1%	8.54	6.54	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	66	0	69	292	46	45	8	0%	1.0	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	2.7%	5.64	5.54	-0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	67	0	70	296	51	42	8	0%	1.0	17.1%	14.1%	3.0%	2.7%	5.40	5.30	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	67	0	70	296	52	41	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	13.8%	3.9%	2.7%	5.27	5.22	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	66	0	69	291	52	40	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	13.8%	4.1%	2.8%	5.24	5.23	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	282	50	39	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	2.9%	5.29	5.32	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	61	0	64	270	47	38	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	14.1%	3.4%	3.0%	5.38	5.45	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	29	0	30	127	20	19	3	0%	1.0	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	2.7%	5.64	5.54	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	45	0	47	198	34	28	5	0%	1.0	17.1%	14.1%	3.0%	2.7%	5.40	5.30	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	53	0	56	236	42	33	6	0%	1.1	17.7%	13.8%	3.9%	2.7%	5.27	5.22	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	56	0	59	249	44	34	7	0%	1.1	17.9%	13.8%	4.1%	2.8%	5.24	5.23	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	57	0	60	253	45	35	7	0%	1.1	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	2.9%	5.29	5.32	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	43	35	7	0%	1.1	17.5%	14.1%	3.4%	3.0%	5.38	5.45	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		294	0	308	1302	227	183	37	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.1%	3.4%	2.8%	5.34	4.95	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	119	24	0%	1.1	17.4%	14.1%	3.4%	2.8%	5.34	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		48	24	119	544	80	86	11	50%	2.5	14.8%	15.8%	-1.0%	2.0%	5.82	4.94	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	40	200	914	135	144	18	50%	2.5	14.8%	15.8%	-1.0%	2.0%	5.82	4.94	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colby Holcombe (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	13.8%	17.1%	2.7%	—	5.35	16.9%	2.6%	209	-0.61	—	—	—
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	85
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	84
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	80
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	79
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	79
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	79
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	78
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	78
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	77
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	77
Mark McLaughlin R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	22	SW	4.80	12.7%	19.6%	0.5%	.447	4.43	17.6%	6.5%	145	-0.37	3.95	196	76
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	75
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	75
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	75
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	74
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	74
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	74
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	67	16.8%	14.5%	1.07	5.45
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59