Christian Worley

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	33	48	4.34	3.77	20.0%	16.1%	—	K 16.7% · BB 19.0% · FIP 4.49
2026	24	MIX2 levels	43	56	3.20	3.93	30.1%	12.4%	—	K 23.6% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	32	34	5.17	5.17	22.4%	15.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSTL	21	22	5.07	5.06	22.7%	14.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	30	31	5.03	5.05	22.7%	14.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMaikel Cleto (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%22.4%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	48	230	46	37	1	0%	1.4	16.7%	19.0%	-2.3%	0.7%	4.34	4.49	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	48	230	46	37	1	0%	1.4	16.7%	19.0%	-2.3%	0.7%	4.34	4.49	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	48	230	46	37	1	0%	1.4	20.0%	16.1%	3.9%	0.4%	4.34	3.77	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	56	249	75	31	8	0%	1.3	23.6%	14.9%	8.7%	3.8%	3.20	5.06	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	56	249	75	31	8	0%	1.3	23.6%	14.9%	8.7%	3.8%	3.20	5.06	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	56	249	75	31	8	0%	1.3	30.1%	12.4%	17.7%	3.2%	3.20	3.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	32	0	34	144	32	22	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	15.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.17	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	48	0	51	214	49	31	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.5%	8.2%	3.0%	5.07	5.06	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	48	0	50	211	48	30	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.2%	8.5%	3.1%	5.03	5.05	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	21	0	22	93	21	14	3	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.5%	8.2%	3.0%	5.07	5.06	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	30	0	31	131	30	19	4	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.2%	8.5%	3.1%	5.03	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	0	53	225	51	32	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	3.1%	5.05	4.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	120	26	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	3.1%	5.05	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		76	0	104	479	97	81	11	0%	1.4	20.3%	16.9%	3.4%	2.3%	3.72	4.79	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	0	200	921	187	155	21	0%	1.4	20.3%	16.9%	3.4%	2.3%	3.72	4.79	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Worley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	22.4%	15.2%	3.0%	—	5.06	22.7%	8.3%	101	-0.11	—	—	—
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	90
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	89
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	89
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	88
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	88
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	86
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	86
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	85
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	85
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	85
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	85
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	85
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	85
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	22.6%	14.6%	1.18	5.08
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*