Yeriel Santos

P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 187 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	A+HOU	25	15	93	8.16	5.41	18.9%	14.0%	—	K 14.5% · BB 16.1% · FIP 5.67
2026	22	A+HOU	21	15	82	7.87	6.56	20.0%	17.7%	—	K 15.4% · BB 20.3% · FIP 7.54
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	10	10	62	6.81	6.81	13.8%	20.0%	-1.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	6	6	37	6.37	6.25	15.8%	17.2%	-0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	9	9	58	6.03	5.90	17.0%	15.5%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control30Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsCarlos Marmol (age 23) · Mason Pelio (age 23) · Erick Reynoso (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 162154vR 146

ERA6.81

FIP6.81

K%13.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-6.2%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	40	166	41	24	1	58%	3.3	16.8%	18.1%	-1.3%	0.9%	2.27	4.44	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	40	166	41	24	1	58%	3.3	24.7%	14.5%	10.2%	0.6%	2.27	3.18	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	5	35	164	42	30	4	45%	3.2	17.4%	22.9%	-5.5%	2.5%	5.35	5.89	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	11	5	35	164	42	30	4	45%	3.2	25.6%	18.3%	7.3%	2.4%	5.35	4.74	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	14	101	432	104	54	7	56%	4.0	17.8%	14.8%	3.1%	1.9%	4.11	4.50	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	14	101	432	104	54	7	56%	4.0	17.8%	14.8%	3.1%	1.9%	4.11	4.50	—
2024	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	14	101	432	104	54	7	56%	4.0	24.1%	12.5%	11.6%	1.6%	4.11	3.55	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	15	93	450	85	63	15	60%	3.7	14.5%	16.1%	-1.6%	3.2%	8.16	5.67	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	15	93	450	85	63	15	60%	3.7	14.5%	16.1%	-1.6%	3.2%	8.16	5.67	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	15	93	450	85	63	15	60%	3.7	18.9%	14.0%	4.9%	3.3%	8.16	5.41	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	21	15	82	390	78	69	18	71%	3.9	15.4%	20.3%	-4.9%	5.8%	7.87	7.54	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	21	15	82	390	78	69	18	71%	3.9	15.4%	20.3%	-4.9%	5.8%	7.87	7.54	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	21	15	82	390	78	69	18	71%	3.9	20.0%	17.7%	2.3%	4.6%	7.87	6.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	10	10	62	262	36	52	9	100%	6.2	13.8%	20.0%	-6.2%	3.6%	6.81	6.81	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	86	361	57	62	13	100%	6.1	15.8%	17.2%	-1.4%	3.5%	6.37	6.25	-1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	87	366	62	57	13	100%	6.2	17.0%	15.5%	1.5%	3.4%	6.03	5.90	-0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	87	366	64	55	13	100%	6.2	17.5%	15.1%	2.5%	3.4%	5.85	5.79	-0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	360	64	54	12	100%	6.1	17.6%	14.9%	2.7%	3.5%	5.79	5.79	-0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	83	349	61	53	12	100%	6.4	17.5%	15.1%	2.4%	3.6%	5.84	5.87	-0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	79	334	64	48	12	100%	6.1	19.3%	14.5%	4.8%	3.7%	5.77	5.73	-0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	74	314	59	46	12	100%	6.2	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	3.9%	5.85	5.91	-0.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	37	156	25	27	5	100%	6.2	15.8%	17.2%	-1.4%	3.5%	6.37	6.25	-0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	58	245	42	38	8	100%	6.4	17.0%	15.5%	1.5%	3.4%	6.03	5.90	-0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	69	291	51	44	10	100%	6.3	17.5%	15.1%	2.5%	3.4%	5.85	5.79	-0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	73	308	54	46	11	100%	6.1	17.6%	14.9%	2.7%	3.5%	5.79	5.79	-0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	74	312	55	47	11	100%	6.2	17.5%	15.1%	2.4%	3.6%	5.84	5.87	-0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	72	304	59	44	11	100%	6.0	19.3%	14.5%	4.8%	3.7%	5.77	5.73	-0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	68	287	54	43	11	100%	6.2	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	3.9%	5.85	5.91	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	450	1898	338	288	68	100%	6.2	17.8%	15.2%	2.7%	3.6%	5.89	5.48	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	150	128	30	100%	6.1	17.8%	15.2%	2.7%	3.6%	5.89	5.48	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		94	56	351	1602	259	283	51	60%	3.7	16.2%	17.7%	-1.5%	3.2%	5.98	5.71	-6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	914	148	161	29	60%	3.7	16.2%	17.7%	-1.5%	3.2%	5.98	5.71	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeriel Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.81	13.8%	20.0%	3.6%	—	5.98	16.8%	0.8%	259	-0.83	—	—	—
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	84
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Erick Reynoso R 2024 · 7.34 FIP	21	SP-	7.34	13.1%	22.6%	4.5%	.226	6.10	15.5%	-7.0%	107	-1.24	6.06	180	80
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	80
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	80
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	80
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	79
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	77
Eminen Flores R 2024 · 5.93 FIP	21	SP-	5.93	14.7%	19.2%	3.0%	.244	5.10	18.0%	-1.5%	58	-0.83	4.81	191	77
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	76
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	75
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	75
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	75
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	74
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	74
Luke Anderson R 2022 · 6.08 FIP	23	SW	6.08	17.7%	14.7%	4.8%	.363	5.79	15.4%	-11.1%	34	-0.29	5.12	130	73
Michael Petersen R 2017 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP-	5.81	14.8%	17.5%	3.2%	.336	4.34	18.7%	5.9%	122	-1.47	2.90	406	73
Erling Moreno R 2019 · 6.02 FIP	22	SP-	6.02	7.8%	18.2%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	213	72
Johnny Hellweg R 2013 · 5.63 FIP	24	SP	5.63	5.6%	16.0%	1.8%	.298	5.82	9.6%	-8.1%	82	+0.19	2.98	140	71
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	80	17.3%	15.8%	1.38	6.02
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ray Harrell ('35-'45, -6 WAR*)	1.6	66	19.3%*	12.3%*	1.40*	6.15*
Paul Giel ('54-'61, -4 WAR*)	1.2	60	20.2%*	12.9%*	1.20*	5.80*
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*