Shea Sprague
P
Greenville Drive
+0.7
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.8 · 2029
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%11.1%
IP97
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 9 | 97 | 400 | 91 | 35 | 3 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 0.9% | 3.82 | 3.41 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 2 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | 4.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 85 | 39 | 10 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 106 | 442 | 94 | 40 | 13 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 3.98 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 104 | 44 | 12 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 128 | 543 | 118 | 47 | 14 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 136 | 572 | 126 | 49 | 15 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 138 | 585 | 129 | 50 | 15 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.15 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 129 | 51 | 16 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 135 | 571 | 125 | 50 | 15 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.22 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 131 | 554 | 120 | 49 | 15 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 115 | 48 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 109 | 47 | 15 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 102 | 46 | 15 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 110 | 465 | 96 | 44 | 14 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 88 | 43 | 14 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 81 | 41 | 14 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 11 | 106 | 434 | 78 | 42 | 6 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 1.5% | 3.83 | 3.62 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 21 | 200 | 821 | 148 | 79 | 11 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 1.5% | 3.83 | 3.62 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shea Sprague (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.17 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 379 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 94 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 93 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 91 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 91 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 91 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .325 | 4.01 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 199 | +0.28 | 3.59 | 364 | 90 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.5% | .329 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.50 | 3.56 | 280 | 90 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 3.83 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.29 | 3.69 | 269 | 90 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 89 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 89 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 89 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 89 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 88 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 88 |
| Carson Teel L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.43 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.88 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 144 | +1.45 | 3.43 | 248 | 87 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 87 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .318 | 3.31 | 24.2% | 15.8% | 322 | -1.15 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 87 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 87 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 87 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.73 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 116 | -0.33 | 2.85 | 221 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.5 | $15M | +$13M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.3 | $13M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.2 | $13M | +$9M |
| Totals | $12M | $89M | +$76M | ||