Shea Sprague — OGILVIE

Shea Sprague P Greenville Drive

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%15.4%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	97	400	91	35	3	41%	4.4	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	0.8%	3.82	3.40	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	97	400	91	35	3	41%	4.4	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	0.8%	3.82	3.40	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	9	97	400	91	35	3	41%	4.4	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	0.8%	3.82	2.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	18	3	58	288	61	34	15	17%	3.2	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	5.5%	7.60	6.39	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	18	3	58	288	61	34	15	17%	3.2	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	5.5%	7.60	6.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	BOS	17	3	57	275	59	32	12	18%	3.3	21.5%	11.6%	9.8%	4.4%	6.51	5.16	—
2026	23	AA RAW	BOS	1	0	1	13	2	2	3	0%	1.3	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	23.1%	54.00	16.42	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	BOS	5	0	6	24	4	3	1	0%	1.1	15.4%	11.2%	4.2%	2.5%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	64	312	65	37	16	—	—	20.7%	11.8%	9.0%	5.0%	7.37	6.27	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	85	0	89	377	64	40	10	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.5%	6.5%	2.6%	4.84	4.78	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	86	0	90	381	68	39	10	0%	1.1	17.8%	10.1%	7.7%	2.6%	4.72	4.67	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	86	0	90	381	70	38	10	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.9%	8.3%	2.6%	4.65	4.62	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	85	0	89	375	69	37	10	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.0%	8.4%	2.7%	4.65	4.65	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	82	0	86	364	66	37	10	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.70	4.74	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	78	0	82	347	62	36	10	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.3%	7.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.87	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	74	0	77	327	64	32	10	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.1%	4.79	4.78	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	36	0	38	160	27	17	4	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.5%	6.5%	2.6%	4.84	4.78	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57	0	60	253	45	26	7	0%	1.1	17.8%	10.1%	7.7%	2.6%	4.72	4.67	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	69	0	72	304	56	30	8	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.9%	8.3%	2.6%	4.65	4.62	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	72	0	76	321	59	32	9	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.0%	8.4%	2.7%	4.65	4.65	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	73	0	77	325	59	33	9	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.70	4.74	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	71	0	75	317	57	33	9	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.3%	7.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.87	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	68	0	71	300	59	29	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.1%	4.79	4.78	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		446	0	469	1979	362	200	55	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	2.8%	4.73	4.35	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	85	23	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	2.8%	4.73	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		40	12	155	688	116	79	19	30%	3.9	16.9%	11.5%	5.4%	2.8%	5.24	4.65	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	16	200	890	150	103	25	30%	3.9	16.9%	11.5%	5.4%	2.8%	5.24	4.65	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shea Sprague (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	15.4%	11.2%	2.5%	—	4.69	17.7%	7.5%	270	-0.31	—	—	—
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	84
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	83
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	79
Kohl Drake L 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SW	4.81	16.3%	11.9%	2.9%	.391	4.32	21.8%	12.5%	292	-0.49	3.32	327	79
Luis De Paula L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	14.8%	14.2%	1.3%	.285	5.37	16.4%	0.2%	47	+1.02	4.35	125	78
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	78
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	958	77
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	76
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	76
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	75
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	75
Matt Walker L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	16.7%	13.3%	1.5%	.324	4.62	15.5%	4.0%	94	+0.41	4.21	156	75
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.54	15.7%	4.7%	77	+0.54	4.38	243	75
Cameron Roegner L 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SW	4.16	11.1%	12.1%	0.9%	.273	3.96	15.1%	6.5%	278	-0.20	3.77	319	74
Jake Drehoff L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	16.0%	5.9%	2.6%	.326	4.83	17.8%	6.8%	81	+0.88	3.95	153	74
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	74
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	74
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	73
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	73
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2019 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	13.5%	6.9%	3.2%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	184	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	84	17.9%	10.2%	1.05	4.76
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25