Shea Sprague
P
Greenville Drive
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 131
ERA4.98
FIP4.98
K%15.4%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%4.3%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 9 | 97 | 400 | 91 | 35 | 3 | 41% | 4.4 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 0.8% | 3.82 | 3.36 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 9 | 97 | 400 | 91 | 35 | 3 | 41% | 4.4 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 0.8% | 3.82 | 2.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 10 | 3 | 31 | 155 | 31 | 19 | 13 | 30% | 3.1 | 15.7% | 13.8% | 2.0% | 8.8% | 9.68 | 8.35 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 44 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.98 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.4% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.98 | 4.98 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 98 | 441 | 75 | 51 | 20 | — | — | 17.0% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.45 | 6.03 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.4% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.98 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 50 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 55 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 0 | 133 | 560 | 101 | 58 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.29 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 152 | 87 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 12 | 127 | 555 | 93 | 62 | 17 | 38% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 4.75 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 19 | 200 | 872 | 146 | 97 | 26 | 38% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shea Sprague (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.68 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 210 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .314 | 5.52 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 121 | +1.23 | 4.29 | 200 | 89 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .278 | 5.53 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +1.18 | 4.35 | 128 | 86 |
| Hayden Frank L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 85 |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .322 | 4.80 | 14.7% | 0.1% | 130 | +0.11 | 4.62 | 195 | 84 |
| JP Sears L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .268 | 3.25 | 24.7% | 17.8% | 222 | -0.65 | 2.18 | 927 | 80 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 80 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.34 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.12 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.33 | 457 | 79 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 16.3% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .391 | 4.11 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 262 | -0.58 | 3.28 | 297 | 79 |
| Matt Tracy L 2029 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 79 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.62 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 24 | -1.12 | 3.62 | 125 | 79 |
| Luis De Paula L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 14.8% | 14.2% | 1.4% | .285 | 5.36 | 16.4% | 0.2% | 47 | +0.92 | 4.44 | 125 | 78 |
| Jaime Arias L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .332 | 5.63 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.72 | 4.52 | 243 | 78 |
| Bryce Hubbart L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.10 | 15.5% | 13.8% | 2.8% | .313 | 4.90 | 19.3% | 6.1% | 68 | -0.20 | 4.73 | 181 | 78 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 1.6% | .304 | 4.24 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 159 | -0.37 | 3.79 | 330 | 77 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 76 |
| Pat Peterson L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 108 | 76 |
| Drake Britton L 2029 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 76 |
| Carson Dorsey L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.47 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 107 | 75 |
| Tim Berry L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 12.0% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .346 | 5.11 | 14.7% | -0.6% | 113 | +0.81 | 4.04 | 196 | 75 |
| Eric Wooten L 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 0.99 | 4.80 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |