Eli Jones

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#671ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AMIN	23	18	100	5.13	2.88	18.8%	8.9%	—	K 13.9% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.62
2026	23	MIX2 levels	13	12	55	4.39	2.65	23.0%	4.6%	—	K 18.0% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.90	4.90	14.3%	9.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	5	5	30	4.78	4.74	16.0%	9.1%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	7	7	43	4.69	4.66	16.9%	9.0%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.8M2034Arb-2$0.7M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsDylan Burns (age 25) · Charlie Morton (age 24) · Chris Kachmar (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%14.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	23	18	100	447	84	40	2	78%	4.3	13.9%	10.6%	3.3%	0.6%	5.13	3.62	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	23	18	100	447	84	40	2	78%	4.3	13.9%	10.6%	3.3%	0.6%	5.13	3.62	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	23	18	100	447	84	40	2	78%	4.3	18.8%	8.9%	9.8%	0.4%	5.13	2.88	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	55	239	55	11	4	92%	4.3	18.0%	5.2%	12.8%	2.1%	4.39	3.38	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	55	239	55	11	4	92%	4.3	18.0%	5.2%	12.8%	2.1%	4.39	3.38	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	55	239	55	11	4	92%	4.3	23.0%	4.6%	18.4%	1.7%	4.39	2.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.3%	9.4%	4.9%	2.6%	4.90	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	70	296	47	27	8	100%	5.8	16.0%	9.1%	6.9%	2.6%	4.77	4.73	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	64	271	46	24	7	100%	5.8	16.9%	9.0%	8.0%	2.7%	4.68	4.65	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	61	257	44	23	7	100%	6.1	17.2%	9.0%	8.2%	2.7%	4.66	4.67	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	57	242	42	22	7	100%	5.7	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.70	4.74	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	53	224	38	21	7	100%	5.9	16.9%	9.3%	7.6%	3.0%	4.80	4.87	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	52	220	41	19	7	100%	5.8	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.79	4.78	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	46	196	36	18	7	100%	5.8	18.2%	9.2%	9.0%	3.4%	4.90	4.98	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	30	127	20	12	3	100%	6.0	16.0%	9.1%	6.9%	2.6%	4.78	4.74	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	43	182	31	16	5	100%	6.1	16.9%	9.0%	8.0%	2.7%	4.69	4.66	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	47	198	34	18	5	100%	5.9	17.2%	9.0%	8.2%	2.7%	4.67	4.68	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	48	203	35	18	6	100%	6.0	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.71	4.75	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	46	194	33	18	6	100%	5.8	16.9%	9.3%	7.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.88	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	47	198	37	18	6	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.80	4.79	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	42	177	32	16	6	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.2%	9.0%	3.4%	4.91	4.99	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	304	1283	223	117	38	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.1%	8.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.40	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	147	77	25	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.1%	8.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.40	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		36	30	155	686	105	60	8	83%	4.3	15.3%	8.7%	6.6%	1.1%	4.87	3.53	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	39	200	883	135	77	10	83%	4.3	15.3%	8.7%	6.6%	1.1%	4.87	3.53	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 40 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.17 (+0.78)K% 24.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.55%	—	×0.770	18.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.99%	—	×1.150	3.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 15 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.85 (+0.57)K% 19.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.44%	—	×0.810	15.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 100 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.62 (+0.73)K% 18.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.79%	—	×0.740	13.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.95%	—	×1.180	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.45%	÷0.898	×1.300	0.65%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	14.3%	9.4%	2.6%	—	4.68	16.7%	7.6%	195	-0.22	—	—	—
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	86
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	85
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85
Patrick McGuff R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	12.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	133	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	84
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.66	29.0%	22.4%	43	-1.44	2.66	143	84
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	84
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	83
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	83
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	83
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	83
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	83
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	82
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	82
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	82
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	82
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	82
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	82
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	59	16.8%	9.1%	1.10	4.77
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Vinnie Chulk ('12)	1.4	57	16.0%	9.0%	0.98	4.51
Terry Mathews ('99)	2.1	53	16.5%	9.9%	1.07	4.25
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*)	3.2	64	17.3%*	9.3%*	1.05*	4.00*