Eli Jones
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
+0.6
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.8 · 2029
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.1%
IP100
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 23 | 18 | 100 | 447 | 84 | 40 | 2 | 13.9% | 10.6% | 0.7% | 5.13 | 3.62 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 4 | 3 | 20 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 16.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 2.15 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 100 | 422 | 84 | 41 | 11 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 120 | 494 | 99 | 43 | 11 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 4.04 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 118 | 500 | 104 | 46 | 13 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 132 | 557 | 119 | 49 | 14 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 126 | 51 | 15 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 129 | 52 | 16 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 129 | 52 | 16 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 125 | 52 | 16 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 134 | 568 | 120 | 51 | 16 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 115 | 50 | 15 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 125 | 526 | 109 | 48 | 15 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 102 | 47 | 15 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 95 | 46 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 88 | 44 | 14 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 81 | 42 | 14 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.95 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 21 | 120 | 519 | 74 | 50 | 3 | 14.2% | 9.5% | 0.6% | 4.50 | 3.42 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 35 | 200 | 865 | 123 | 83 | 5 | 14.2% | 9.5% | 0.6% | 4.50 | 3.42 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eli Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.22 | 21.2% | 12.3% | 390 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 93 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 92 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 92 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 92 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 92 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 92 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.78 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 146 | +0.51 | 4.27 | 238 | 92 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 91 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 91 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.40 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.11 | 3.67 | 321 | 91 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 91 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 91 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.43 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 60 | +1.35 | 4.08 | 141 | 91 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .323 | 5.51 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.41 | 4.10 | 193 | 91 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 91 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 91 |
| Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 91 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 91 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.5 | $15M | +$13M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.3 | $13M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.1 | $11M | +$8M |
| Totals | $11M | $87M | +$76M | ||