Eli Jones — OGILVIE

Eli Jones P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%12.3%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%0.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	23	18	100	447	84	40	2	78%	4.3	13.9%	10.6%	3.3%	0.6%	5.13	3.62	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	23	18	100	447	84	40	2	78%	4.3	13.9%	10.6%	3.3%	0.6%	5.13	3.62	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	23	18	100	447	84	40	2	78%	4.3	18.8%	8.9%	9.8%	0.4%	5.13	2.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	13	12	55	239	55	11	4	92%	4.3	18.0%	5.2%	12.8%	2.1%	4.39	3.38	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	13	12	55	239	55	11	4	92%	4.3	18.0%	5.2%	12.8%	2.1%	4.39	3.38	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIN	9	8	40	167	41	5	3	89%	4.5	24.6%	3.0%	21.6%	1.8%	4.46	2.39	—
2026	23	AA RAW	MIN	4	4	15	72	14	6	1	100%	3.8	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	1.4%	4.20	3.28	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	6	27	3	3	1	100%	6.4	12.3%	12.0%	0.3%	2.5%	5.34	5.34	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	62	266	58	14	5	—	—	21.9%	5.3%	16.6%	1.8%	4.49	3.58	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	92	389	57	44	10	100%	5.8	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.5%	5.13	5.05	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	93	394	64	42	10	100%	5.8	16.1%	10.8%	5.3%	2.6%	4.96	4.89	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	93	394	67	42	10	100%	5.8	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	2.6%	4.86	4.81	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	92	388	66	41	10	100%	6.1	17.0%	10.6%	6.4%	2.6%	4.84	4.83	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	89	377	64	40	10	100%	5.9	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	2.7%	4.89	4.92	-0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	85	360	60	39	10	100%	6.1	16.7%	11.0%	5.7%	2.9%	4.98	5.05	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	80	338	55	38	10	100%	6.2	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	3.1%	5.13	5.23	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	40	169	25	19	4	100%	5.7	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.6%	5.14	5.06	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	62	262	42	28	7	100%	5.6	16.1%	10.8%	5.3%	2.6%	4.97	4.90	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	74	312	53	33	8	100%	6.2	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	2.6%	4.87	4.82	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	78	329	56	35	9	100%	6.0	17.0%	10.6%	6.4%	2.7%	4.85	4.84	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	79	334	56	36	9	100%	6.1	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	2.8%	4.90	4.93	-0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	77	325	54	36	9	100%	5.9	16.7%	11.0%	5.7%	2.9%	4.99	5.06	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	74	312	51	35	10	100%	6.2	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	3.1%	5.14	5.24	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	485	2047	338	222	56	100%	5.9	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.8%	4.96	4.59	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	139	92	23	100%	5.9	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.8%	4.96	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		36	30	155	686	105	60	8	83%	4.3	15.3%	8.7%	6.6%	1.1%	4.87	3.53	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	39	200	883	135	77	10	83%	4.3	15.3%	8.7%	6.6%	1.1%	4.87	3.53	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	12.3%	12.0%	2.5%	—	4.92	15.9%	5.1%	279	-0.42	—	—	—
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	86
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	85
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	85
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	84
Jeff Brigham R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	14.5%	11.3%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	288	-0.98	3.48	620	84
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	82
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	82
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	82
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	82
Connor Jones R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	13.2%	13.6%	1.0%	.307	4.36	16.9%	3.4%	105	+0.10	3.77	402	81
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	81
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	81
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	81
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	81
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	81
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	81
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	80
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	80
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	87	16.0%	11.0%	1.04	5.00
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48