Eli Jones
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.35
FIP5.35
K%12.3%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%0.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 23 | 18 | 100 | 447 | 84 | 40 | 2 | 78% | 4.3 | 13.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 5.13 | 3.66 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 23 | 18 | 100 | 447 | 84 | 40 | 2 | 78% | 4.3 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 0.4% | 5.13 | 2.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 13 | 12 | 55 | 239 | 55 | 11 | 4 | 92% | 4.3 | 18.0% | 5.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 34 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 12.3% | 12.0% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 5.35 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.3% | 12.0% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 5.36 | 5.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 120 | 513 | 89 | 44 | 11 | — | — | 17.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 4.91 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.3% | 12.0% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 5.36 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 45 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 14.8% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 5.14 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 50 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.3% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 4.98 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 52 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 72 | 302 | 52 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.2% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 50 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 14.8% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 5.15 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 33 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.3% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 4.99 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 42 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 4.89 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 44 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.2% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 45 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 44 | 260 | 1098 | 183 | 120 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.7% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.53 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 141 | 92 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.7% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 30 | 155 | 686 | 105 | 60 | 8 | 83% | 4.3 | 15.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 4.87 | 3.56 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 39 | 200 | 883 | 135 | 77 | 11 | 83% | 4.3 | 15.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 4.87 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eli Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.35 | 12.3% | 12.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.93 | 16.1% | 5.0% | 217 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 91 |
| Troy Miller R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 12.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .299 | 5.35 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 45 | +0.39 | 4.96 | 168 | 86 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 85 |
| Elliot Morris R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 85 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 85 |
| Jeff Brigham R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.19 | 14.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .327 | 3.86 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 288 | -1.33 | 3.52 | 620 | 83 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 83 |
| Ben Hansen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 83 |
| Baron Stuart R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 83 |
| Jack Noble R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.45 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 6.15 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 58 | +1.70 | 4.45 | 125 | 83 |
| Nathan Dettmer R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.71 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .365 | 3.34 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 80 | -1.37 | 3.34 | 190 | 82 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.43 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .285 | 7.34 | 19.6% | 3.2% | 26 | +2.91 | 4.43 | 225 | 82 |
| Adam Maier R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.75 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 4.2% | .280 | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 60 | -1.04 | 3.63 | 239 | 82 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 82 |
| Cade Kuehler R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.21 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .266 | 6.79 | 14.5% | 2.4% | 73 | +2.58 | 4.21 | 123 | 82 |
| Victor Mederos R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.56 | 13.4% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .322 | 4.32 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 163 | -1.24 | 4.19 | 360 | 82 |
| Alex Royalty R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .302 | 4.74 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 40 | +0.40 | 4.34 | 151 | 82 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 82 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 81 |
| Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 71 | 15.8% | 11.1% | 1.01 | 5.02 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |