Nathan Humphreys

CF Clearwater Threshers

Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 207 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1018ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	APHI	102	.233/.340/.360	2	4	51	—	.178/.260/.256
2026	23	A+/APHI	416	.241/.366/.426	14	23	73	—	.198/.291/.346
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBPHI	380	.226/.306/.368	10	8	91	0.3
2028PROJ27% MLB	25	MLBPHI	66	.230/.310/.381	2	1	93	0.2
2029PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBPHI	125	.231/.311/.385	4	3	94	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

K%63

Whiff%62

Z-Con%59

BB%48

Speed43

ISO34

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDJ Stewart (age 24) · Blake Tekotte (age 24) · Quincy Hamilton (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .304 / .365

PA210

HR5

SB5

K%26

BB%9

ISO142

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	102	86	20	5	0	2	14	33	0	4	1	233	340	360	700	128	346	32	14	315	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	106	91	16	3	1	2	12	23	3	2	2	176	292	297	589	121	212	22	11	276	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	310	254	67	17	0	12	48	49	5	21	5	264	391	472	863	209	282	16	15	382	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	102	90	16	4	0	1	10	42	0	4	1	178	260	256	516	78	310	41	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	106	96	13	2	1	2	7	30	3	2	2	135	217	240	457	104	173	28	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	310	269	59	14	0	10	33	67	5	21	5	219	316	383	699	164	250	22	11	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	102	90	16	4	0	1	10	42	0	4	1	178	260	256	516	78	312	41	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	102	86	20	5	0	2	14	33	0	4	1	233	340	360	700	128	346	32	14	315	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	416	365	73	17	1	11	40	97	8	23	7	200	293	342	635	142	239	23	10	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	416	345	83	20	1	14	60	72	8	23	7	241	366	426	792	186	264	17	14	355	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	102	91	16	4	0	1	10	42	0	4	1	176	260	253	513	77	310	41	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	416	365	73	17	1	11	40	97	8	23	7	200	293	342	635	142	230	23	10	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	102	91	16	4	0	1	10	42	0	4	1	176	260	253	513	77	310	41	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	416	365	73	17	1	11	40	97	8	23	7	200	293	342	635	142	230	23	10	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	380	338	77	15	2	10	34	98	5	8	2	226	306	368	675	142	287	26	9	303	91	-4	+1	+1	+1	+8	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	27%	242	215	49	10	1	6	22	62	3	5	2	228	308	374	682	146	287	26	9	306	93	-2	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	43%	291	260	59	12	1	8	26	74	3	6	2	229	309	377	686	148	287	25	9	307	94	-2	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	312	277	63	13	1	8	28	79	4	6	2	229	309	376	685	147	287	25	9	307	94	-2	+0	+1	+1	+7	0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	PHI	54%	321	285	65	13	1	9	29	82	4	5	2	228	307	373	680	145	286	26	9	305	92	-3	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	317	283	64	13	1	8	28	81	3	4	2	226	305	369	673	142	285	26	9	302	91	-4	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	PHI	56%	311	277	62	12	1	8	28	81	3	3	1	223	301	361	662	137	283	26	9	297	87	-5	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	27%	66	59	14	3	0	2	6	17	1	1	0	230	310	381	691	151	288	26	9	309	93	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	43%	125	112	27	5	1	4	11	32	1	3	1	231	311	385	695	154	288	26	9	311	94	-1	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	156	139	33	6	1	5	14	40	2	3	1	231	310	384	694	153	287	26	9	310	94	-1	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	PHI	54%	174	154	36	7	1	5	16	44	2	3	1	230	309	380	689	151	286	25	9	308	92	-2	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	176	156	36	7	1	5	16	45	2	2	1	228	307	376	682	147	285	26	9	305	91	-2	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	PHI	56%	174	155	36	7	1	5	15	45	2	2	1	225	303	367	670	142	283	26	9	301	87	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	871	775	182	35	5	26	78	223	10	14	5	235	313	394	706	159	294	26	9	307	87	-9	+1	-0	+3	+19	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	136	26	4	19	58	166	7	10	4	235	312	393	705	157	295	26	9	307	87	-7	+1	-0	+2	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2522	2238	492	102	8	64	230	652	31	61	20	220	301	358	660	139	279	26	9	297	87	-20	+2	+1	+7	+43	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	126	26	2	16	59	168	8	16	5	218	300	354	653	135	277	26	9	297	87	-6	+1	+0	+2	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 310 PAwOBA .375 → .303 (−72)K% 15.8% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.81%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.48%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	10.47%
HBP% /PA	1.61%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.23%
Singles /BIP	18.54%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.025	×0.980	17.14%
Doubles /BIP	8.29%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.025	×0.980	6.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.025	×0.980	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.85%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	4.59%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .375 → .303; ISO .209 → .169; BABIP .282 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 106 PAwOBA .269 → .200 (−70)K% 21.7% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.70%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	28.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.32%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.988	6.71%
HBP% /PA	2.83%	—	×0.770	—	×0.988	2.15%
Singles /BIP	14.71%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.973	×0.988	12.30%
Doubles /BIP	4.41%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.973	×0.988	3.31%
Triples /BIP	1.47%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.973	×0.988	1.20%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	2.56%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .269 → .200; ISO .121 → .098; BABIP .212 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 102 PAwOBA .310 → .243 (−67)K% 32.4% → 41.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.35%	÷1.065	×1.360	—	—	41.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.73%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×0.990	9.62%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.53%	÷1.030	×0.920	×1.037	×0.990	22.48%
Doubles /BIP	9.43%	÷0.975	×0.830	×1.037	×0.990	8.24%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.923	×0.910	×1.037	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.77%	÷1.083	×0.800	—	×0.990	2.76%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .310 → .243; ISO .128 → .096; BABIP .346 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Jacob Brumfield'92-'99 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,747 PA	2.6	1,747	32	74	244*	305*	386*	-3	+10	3.1	3.1
/162	664	12	28	-1.2	+3.8	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.6	1,082	28	18	228	304	372	-4	+8	1.3	1.3
/162	664	17	11	-2.7	+4.9	0.8	pk7: 1
#5Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Rick Bosetti'76-'82 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,656 PA	2.5	1,656	17	30	243*	286*	358*	+3	+16	0.6	0.6
/162	664	7	12	+1.4	+6.5	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Humphreys (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	224/304/365	141	287	5	5	26%	9%	91	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕DJ Stewart 2018 · AA	24	47→49	47→60	52→50	49	235/309/374	139	289	15	16	24%	8%	94	+0.9	228/305/390	162	277	19	11	24%	9%	97	+1.1	215/319/403	188	257	24	4	25%	12%	104	+0.8
✕Blake Tekotte 2011 · AA	24	45→47	48→50	50→55	47	228/290/372	144	279	15	18	24%	8%	86	+0.3	214/274/356	142	286	15	21	29%	7%	77	-0.3	194/258/314	120	261	9	10	28%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Quincy Hamilton 2023 · AA	25	45	46→50	53→50	49	225/307/354	128	288	14	18	26%	9%	89	+0.5	207/285/346	139	265	15	12	27%	9%	79	-0.2	185/264/323	139	233	15	10	27%	9%	64	-0.8
✕Drew Gilbert 2024 · AA	23	49→50	49→50	49→45	47	248/313/399	151	299	17	12	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/300/374	149	266	16	8	22%	8%	91	+0.7	217/301/368	151	248	17	6	20%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Reid Fronk 2009 · A	23	47	49→45	47→50	48	234/312/385	151	300	15	11	26%	9%	98	+1.2	204/290/303	99	282	7	9	28%	9%	72	-0.7	186/278/267	81	266	4	7	28%	9%	58	-1.2
✕Carlos Alvarez 2012 · AAA	24	49	46→45	49→45	51	241/313/372	132	298	14	14	24%	9%	95	+0.9	234/298/353	119	292	10	8	22%	8%	85	+0.2	247/325/329	81	299	5	6	17%	9%	88	+0.2
✕Tucker Bradley 2023 · AA	25	50→52	45	53→50	48	243/310/370	127	310	12	15	24%	8%	93	+0.8	241/304/370	129	316	11	15	25%	8%	91	+0.6	244/309/381	138	322	10	16	26%	8%	94	+0.5
✕Aaron Zavala 2023 · AA	23	46	46→45	50	51	226/321/357	131	298	14	13	27%	10%	95	+1.0	195/287/292	97	310	9	10	36%	10%	68	-1.0	200/277/306	106	297	9	9	33%	8%	65	-1.1
✕Spencer Packard 2023 · A	25	45→51	46→45	49→40	49	227/303/357	130	268	14	7	21%	8%	88	+0.4	240/314/359	119	283	12	3	19%	8%	93	+0.8	240/319/351	111	280	11	1	17%	8%	90	+0.5
✕John Raglani 2007 · AA	24	46→48	47→50	47→45	46	227/297/366	139	297	14	7	28%	8%	88	+0.4	218/295/368	150	297	16	8	30%	9%	88	+0.4	203/290/369	166	273	19	7	31%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2024 · AA	24	42→45	47→50	54→55	49	213/293/347	134	271	14	19	26%	9%	82	+0.0	222/286/356	134	295	15	16	28%	8%	82	-0.0	219/281/356	137	291	16	15	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Shed Long Jr. 2019 · AA	23	49→50	47→50	51→50	44	238/300/376	138	319	14	13	29%	7%	91	+0.7	230/290/373	143	310	15	10	29%	8%	86	+0.3	222/283/373	151	295	17	8	29%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Dustin Majewski 2006 · A	24	44→49	49→50	46→40	43	224/281/378	155	292	16	9	29%	7%	84	+0.2	221/299/363	142	275	14	5	24%	10%	88	+0.4	218/304/355	137	265	13	3	22%	11%	86	+0.3
✕David McCabe 2024 · A	24	45→48	46→50	47→40	47	224/294/347	123	302	14	7	29%	9%	82	+0.0	221/289/348	127	301	14	5	29%	9%	81	-0.1	222/291/362	139	295	17	2	29%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Kory Casto 2006 · A	24	47→50	51→50	46→40	49	238/307/404	166	287	18	5	24%	8%	100	+1.3	231/300/369	138	287	14	5	24%	8%	89	+0.5	226/297/355	128	281	14	4	23%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Sherman Johnson 2015 · A	25	47→49	45	52→50	51	231/306/362	131	285	12	13	23%	9%	90	+0.6	203/283/309	106	254	9	15	22%	10%	70	-0.9	200/275/291	91	273	7	11	27%	9%	59	-0.9
✕Terrin Vavra 2022 · AA	25	48	43→45	49→50	49	231/306/351	120	300	10	12	25%	9%	87	+0.4	250/325/353	103	329	7	10	24%	9%	95	+0.9	254/329/346	92	336	6	8	24%	9%	92	+0.3
✕Scott Cousins 2009 · AA	24	49→51	48→50	50→55	40	242/290/385	143	321	16	14	29%	6%	89	+0.5	235/281/377	142	301	13	16	25%	6%	84	+0.1	237/280/380	144	299	12	19	24%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Caleb Stewart 2006 · A	24	48→46	48→50	49→45	45	235/309/387	152	307	15	13	27%	7%	97	+1.1	220/280/372	152	271	17	6	25%	6%	83	+0.1	216/274/357	141	260	16	5	23%	6%	75	-0.3

Nathan Humphreys

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps