Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023
20
MIXMLE
2 levels
8
0
12
59
10
2
1
0%
1.5
11.8%
2.4%
9.5%
0.0%
8.76
2.40
—
2023
20
MIXRAW
2 levels
8
0
12
59
10
2
1
0%
1.5
16.9%
3.4%
13.6%
1.7%
8.76
3.02
—
2024
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
24
18
107
470
97
35
7
75%
4.5
15.4%
8.7%
6.6%
2.0%
4.70
4.02
—
2024
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
24
18
107
470
97
35
7
75%
4.5
15.4%
8.7%
6.6%
2.0%
4.70
4.02
—
2024
21
MIXRAW
2 levels
24
18
107
470
97
35
7
75%
4.5
20.6%
7.4%
13.2%
1.5%
4.70
3.12
—
2025
22
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
25
125
543
113
60
6
100%
5.0
16.2%
12.5%
3.8%
1.4%
3.75
4.10
—
2025
22
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
25
125
543
113
60
6
100%
5.0
16.2%
12.5%
3.8%
1.4%
3.75
4.10
—
2025
22
MIXRAW
2 levels
25
25
125
543
113
60
6
100%
5.0
20.8%
11.0%
9.8%
1.1%
3.75
3.36
—
2026
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
18
110
483
104
55
13
72%
4.4
17.6%
12.3%
5.3%
3.4%
4.91
5.02
—
2026
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
18
110
483
104
55
13
72%
4.4
17.6%
12.3%
5.3%
3.4%
4.91
5.02
—
2026
23
MIXRAW
2 levels
25
18
110
483
104
55
13
72%
4.4
21.5%
11.4%
10.1%
2.7%
4.91
4.25
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
24
MLB
SD
13
13
78
329
52
41
9
100%
6.0
15.9%
12.6%
3.3%
2.9%
5.30
5.30
-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
25
MLBMLE
SD
19
19
114
480
82
55
14
100%
6.0
17.2%
11.4%
5.7%
2.9%
5.11
5.05
-0.2
2029
26
MLBMLE
SD
19
19
114
480
85
53
14
100%
6.0
17.8%
11.1%
6.7%
2.9%
5.00
4.96
-0.1
2030
27
MLBMLE
SD
19
19
112
472
85
52
14
100%
5.9
18.0%
11.0%
7.0%
2.9%
4.96
4.96
-0.1
2031
28
MLBMLE
SD
18
18
108
458
82
51
14
100%
6.0
18.0%
11.1%
6.9%
3.0%
5.00
5.03
-0.2
2032
29
MLBMLE
SD
17
17
104
437
78
50
14
100%
6.1
17.7%
11.3%
6.4%
3.2%
5.10
5.16
-0.3
2033
30
MLBMLE
SD
16
16
97
411
71
48
14
100%
6.1
17.4%
11.6%
5.8%
3.4%
5.24
5.34
-0.5
2028
25
MLBCTX
SD
9
9
50
211
36
24
6
100%
5.6
17.2%
11.4%
5.7%
2.9%
5.15
5.09
-0.1
2029
26
MLBCTX
SD
13
13
76
321
57
36
9
100%
5.8
17.8%
11.1%
6.7%
2.9%
5.04
5.00
-0.1
2030
27
MLBCTX
SD
14
14
87
367
66
40
11
100%
6.2
18.0%
11.0%
7.0%
3.0%
5.00
5.00
-0.1
2031
28
MLBCTX
SD
15
15
91
384
69
43
12
100%
6.1
18.0%
11.1%
6.9%
3.1%
5.04
5.07
-0.1
2032
29
MLBCTX
SD
15
15
91
384
68
43
13
100%
6.1
17.7%
11.3%
6.4%
3.3%
5.14
5.20
-0.3
2033
30
MLBCTX
SD
15
15
88
372
65
43
13
100%
5.9
17.4%
11.6%
5.8%
3.5%
5.29
5.39
-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
81
81
483
2037
361
229
64
100%
6.0
17.7%
11.3%
6.5%
3.1%
5.11
4.75
+0.8
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
33
33
200
844
150
95
27
100%
6.0
17.7%
11.3%
6.5%
3.1%
5.11
4.75
+0.3
Career
—
MLE
82
61
354
1555
252
170
34
74%
4.3
16.2%
10.9%
5.3%
2.2%
4.57
4.30
-1.3
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
46
34
200
878
143
96
19
74%
4.3
16.2%
10.9%
5.3%
2.2%
4.57
4.30
-0.4
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.