Alfredo Romero

P South Bend Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	15	10	41	8.27	3.78	16.7%	11.4%	—	K 12.5% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.45
2025	22	ACHC	21	13	75	2.89	3.49	20.7%	14.1%	—	K 15.3% · BB 16.6% · FIP 4.40
2026	23	A+CHC	24	14	87	4.97	4.28	20.6%	14.8%	—	K 15.8% · BB 17.0% · FIP 5.18
2027PROJ	24	MLBCHC	12	12	67	6.18	6.18	14.2%	19.1%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCHC	6	6	34	5.84	5.74	16.0%	16.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCHC	9	9	53	5.65	5.59	17.0%	16.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJacob Cravey (age 22) · Kyle Larsen (age 21) · Andrew Thurman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151142vR 134

ERA6.18

FIP6.18

K%14.2%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%-4.9%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	3	23	98	24	13	3	38%	2.9	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	4.6%	3.52	6.31	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	8	3	23	98	24	13	3	38%	2.9	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	3.1%	3.52	4.40	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	11	31	139	32	19	1	92%	2.6	15.7%	17.1%	-1.4%	1.0%	3.77	4.50	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	12	11	31	139	32	19	1	92%	2.6	23.0%	13.7%	9.4%	0.7%	3.77	3.29	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	12.5%	12.9%	-0.4%	1.4%	8.27	4.45	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	12.5%	12.9%	-0.4%	1.4%	8.27	4.45	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.2%	1.0%	8.27	3.78	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	15.3%	16.6%	-1.3%	0.9%	2.89	4.40	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	15.3%	16.6%	-1.3%	0.9%	2.89	4.40	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	0.6%	2.89	3.49	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	15.8%	17.0%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.97	5.18	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	15.8%	17.0%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.97	5.18	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	20.6%	14.8%	5.8%	1.8%	4.97	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	12	12	67	283	40	54	8	100%	5.6	14.2%	19.1%	-4.9%	2.7%	6.18	6.18	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	79	335	54	56	9	100%	5.7	16.0%	16.8%	-0.8%	2.7%	5.84	5.74	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	79	335	57	54	9	100%	6.1	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	2.7%	5.65	5.59	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	78	330	57	52	9	100%	6.0	17.3%	15.9%	1.4%	2.8%	5.57	5.56	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	76	320	56	51	9	100%	5.8	17.4%	15.9%	1.5%	2.9%	5.59	5.62	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	72	306	52	49	9	100%	6.0	17.1%	16.1%	1.0%	3.0%	5.68	5.75	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	68	288	48	47	9	100%	6.2	16.8%	16.4%	0.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.93	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	34	144	23	24	4	100%	5.7	16.0%	16.8%	-0.8%	2.7%	5.84	5.74	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	53	224	38	36	6	100%	5.9	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	2.7%	5.65	5.59	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	44	40	7	100%	6.0	17.3%	15.9%	1.4%	2.8%	5.57	5.56	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	64	270	47	43	8	100%	5.8	17.4%	15.9%	1.5%	2.9%	5.59	5.62	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	63	266	46	43	8	100%	6.3	17.1%	16.1%	1.0%	3.0%	5.68	5.75	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	43	42	8	100%	6.1	16.8%	16.4%	0.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.93	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	336	1417	241	229	41	100%	6.0	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	2.9%	5.68	5.32	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	144	137	24	100%	6.0	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	2.9%	5.68	5.32	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		80	51	257	1145	173	184	20	64%	3.2	15.1%	16.1%	-1.0%	1.8%	4.62	4.84	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	40	200	891	135	144	16	64%	3.2	15.1%	16.1%	-1.0%	1.8%	4.62	4.84	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alfredo Romero (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.18	14.2%	19.1%	2.7%	—	5.63	16.8%	0.5%	237	-0.55	—	—	—
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	85
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	83
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.33	21.4%	7.0%	173	-0.73	4.21	254	81
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	78
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	78
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	78
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	77
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	76
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	75
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	75
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	75
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	75
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	74
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	74
Pedro Garcia R 2024 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	16.1%	16.8%	2.1%	.329	5.81	12.3%	-2.4%	100	+0.77	4.69	247	74
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	16.6%	16.6%	1.11	5.75
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*