Chase Isbell
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.4%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.4%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 4 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.11 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 33 | 0 | 51 | 196 | 64 | 14 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 2.84 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | KC | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | KC | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | KC | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | KC | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | KC | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 48 | 19 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | KC | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | KC | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | KC | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | KC | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | KC | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 0 | 57 | 227 | 57 | 21 | 5 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.32 | 3.42 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 0 | 200 | 796 | 200 | 74 | 18 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.32 | 3.42 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Isbell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.30 | 23.6% | 14.5% | 150 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 91 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 91 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 90 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 88 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 88 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 87 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 87 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 87 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 134 | 87 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.64 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .250 | 3.83 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.19 | 1.48 | 230 | 86 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .255 | 4.63 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.66 | 3.16 | 253 | 86 |
| Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.46 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 57 | +0.29 | 3.46 | 134 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
| Steven Wilson R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 86 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 86 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .294 | 4.84 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 106 | +0.02 | 4.22 | 295 | 86 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.38 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .375 | 5.68 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 72 | +2.30 | 3.38 | 188 | 85 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .232 | 4.70 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 139 | +0.45 | 3.60 | 246 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.1M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||