Chase Isbell — OGILVIE

Chase Isbell P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

K%23.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	6	31	9	5	0	0%	1.6	29.0%	16.1%	12.9%	0.0%	7.11	2.69	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	6	31	9	5	0	0%	1.6	29.0%	16.1%	12.9%	0.0%	7.11	2.69	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	6	31	9	5	0	0%	1.6	29.0%	16.1%	12.9%	0.0%	7.11	2.63	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	51	196	64	14	4	0%	1.5	24.6%	8.3%	16.3%	2.7%	2.84	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	51	196	64	14	4	0%	1.5	24.6%	8.3%	16.3%	2.7%	2.84	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	51	196	64	14	4	0%	1.5	32.7%	7.1%	25.5%	2.0%	2.84	2.43	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	KC	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.23	4.23	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	43	0	46	193	46	17	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	3.0%	4.22	4.22	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	43	0	45	190	45	17	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.1%	4.25	4.26	+0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	19	0	20	84	20	7	3	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	3.0%	4.22	4.22	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	27	0	28	118	28	10	4	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.1%	4.25	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	202	48	18	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.0%	4.24	3.86	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	75	25	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.0%	4.24	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		37	0	57	227	57	21	5	0%	1.5	25.2%	9.4%	15.9%	2.3%	3.32	3.42	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	796	201	75	18	0%	1.5	25.2%	9.4%	15.9%	2.3%	3.32	3.42	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Isbell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	23.6%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.24	23.7%	15.1%	90	+0.01	—	—	—
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	91
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	91
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	90
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	90
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	89
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	88
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	87
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	86
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	85
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	85
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	85
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	85
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	85
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	85
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	42	23.7%	8.6%	1.17	4.23
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79