Luke Scherrer — OGILVIE

Luke ScherrerC Bradenton Marauders

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION188 act + 125 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .273 / .267

PA125

HR1

K%31

BB%7

BABIP286

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT39

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$13M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	139	116	25	7	0	0	12	28	8	4	2	216	331	276	607	60	278	20	9	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	139	110	30	8	0	0	18	21	8	4	2	273	412	345	757	73	330	15	13	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	155	134	19	1	0	1	12	48	8	8	3	142	253	172	425	30	209	31	8	194	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	155	127	23	1	0	1	19	34	8	8	3	181	325	213	537	31	237	22	12	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	PIT	—	188	166	33	3	1	2	13	68	6	4	2	199	281	265	546	66	313	36	7	245	46	-12	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
YTD	21	A	PIT	—	188	162	39	3	1	3	17	48	6	4	2	241	335	327	662	86	316	26	9	303	90	-2	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.7
ROS	21	A	PIT	0%	125	112	22	3	1	1	9	39	3	2	1	196	273	267	541	71	288	31	7	258	56	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	PIT	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		286	—	—	240	42	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	PIT	—	188	167	33	3	1	2	13	68	6	4	2	198	281	263	545	66	310	36	7	245	46	-12	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
TOT	21	A	PIT	—	313	278	55	6	2	3	22	107	9	6	3	198	278	266	544	68	302	34	7	250	50	-18	+0	+0	+6	+9	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	PIT	34%	309	276	57	9	1	5	23	92	7	5	2	207	284	301	585	94	288	30	7	269	64	-12	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.2
2028	23	MLB	PIT	48%	394	353	75	12	2	7	30	114	8	6	2	212	289	317	606	105	289	29	8	277	70	-13	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.5
2029	24	MLB	PIT	53%	450	403	87	14	2	9	35	128	9	7	2	216	293	328	621	112	291	28	8	282	74	-13	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.8
2030	25	MLB	PIT	55%	477	427	93	15	2	10	37	135	10	7	3	218	295	333	628	115	291	28	8	284	76	-13	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.9
2031	26	MLB	PIT	56%	493	441	96	16	2	10	39	139	10	8	3	218	296	331	627	113	290	28	8	284	76	-13	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.0
2032	27	MLB	PIT	55%	497	444	96	16	2	10	40	141	10	8	3	216	296	329	624	113	290	28	8	284	76	-14	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.0
2033	28	MLB	PIT	55%	495	442	96	16	2	10	40	141	10	7	3	217	297	330	627	113	290	28	8	283	75	-14	+0	-1	+9	+14	0.9
2027	22	MLB	PIT	34%	106	95	20	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	1	211	286	326	612	116	287	29	8	253	52	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	PIT	48%	191	170	36	6	1	3	15	55	4	3	1	212	291	312	603	100	288	29	8	261	58	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2029	24	MLB	PIT	53%	237	212	45	7	1	5	18	67	5	4	1	212	289	325	615	113	289	28	8	266	62	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2030	25	MLB	PIT	55%	261	234	50	8	1	5	20	74	5	4	1	214	290	321	610	107	289	28	8	268	64	-11	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2031	26	MLB	PIT	56%	274	245	53	9	1	6	22	77	5	4	1	216	294	335	629	118	289	28	8	269	64	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2032	27	MLB	PIT	55%	273	244	52	9	1	5	22	77	5	4	1	213	292	320	611	107	289	28	8	269	64	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2033	28	MLB	PIT	55%	271	242	51	8	1	5	22	77	5	4	1	211	290	314	604	103	288	28	8	268	63	-11	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1613	1443	307	50	7	31	127	458	31	25	7	213	291	322	612	109	287	28	8	266	62	-70	+2	-0	+29	+46	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	123	20	3	12	51	185	12	10	3	212	288	318	607	107	287	28	8	266	62	-28	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	3534	3148	666	109	14	63	277	1005	83	62	24	212	292	315	608	104	287	28	8	276	70	-121	+3	-1	+63	+100	4.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	123	20	3	12	51	185	15	11	4	212	293	320	612	107	288	28	8	276	70	-22	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	139	110	30	8	0	18	21	8	4	2	273	412	345	757	73	330	15	13	350	126	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	63	55	9	0	0	7	19	1	1	1	164	270	164	433		250	30	11	218	25	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	92	72	14	1	1	12	15	7	7	2	194	363	250	613	56	228	16	13	302	89	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#4Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,807	33	28	215	290	324	+32	+20	2.8	2.8
	/162	664	12	10	215	290	324	+11.9	+7.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Scherrer (OGILVIE)	21	34→39	32→37	49→54	53	198/278/266	68	302	3	6	34%	7%	50	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	39→46	40	53→60	46	187/281/276	89	288	7	16	34%	10%	58	-1.2	194/293/274	80	293	6	18	32%	11%	63	-0.9	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	233/264/343	110	303	11	2	26%	4%	65	-0.7	240/274/351	111	288	9	0	19%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2022 · A	21	43	40	51→45	49	207/278/298	91	250	7	11	20%	7%	60	-1.0	201/261/288	87	294	7	8	32%	7%	50	-1.7	184/247/261	77	274	7	8	33%	7%	35	-1.1
✕Cutter Dykstra 2010 · A	21	40→50	40	47→55	43	198/260/282	84	275	8	11	30%	7%	48	-1.9	217/273/292	75	304	6	16	29%	6%	56	-1.3	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	58	-1.2	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	51	-1.7	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	204/264/287	82	286	5	8	29%	5%	51	-1.7	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	24	-3.5	136/184/191	55	233	5	0	42%	5%	-10	-2.1
✕Geovanny Planchart 2023 · A	21	41	36→40	50→40	46	190/271/255	65	295	3	5	34%	10%	46	-2.0	197/283/279	82	287	5	4	30%	10%	58	-1.2	185/278/265	80	263	6	2	29%	11%	51	-0.7
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	51	-1.7	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	42	-2.3	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	-1	-1.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	44→45	40	46→40	43	215/264/301	87	273	8	6	24%	6%	54	-1.4	227/296/326	99	305	8	4	26%	8%	75	-0.0	220/294/315	95	295	8	2	26%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	42	205/260/282	78	258	5	17	22%	5%	48	-1.9	205/257/290	85	298	7	10	32%	5%	49	-1.8	185/231/261	77	287	9	9	37%	3%	28	-0.8
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Christian Cerda 2023 · A	20	40→37	40	50→40	50	194/278/287	93	254	6	9	25%	9%	58	-1.2	189/282/293	104	252	11	4	27%	11%	62	-0.9	173/268/275	101	223	12	2	27%	11%	50	-1.2
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/269	81	260	6	7	29%	6%	42	-2.3	199/274/280	81	291	6	6	31%	8%	55	-1.4	183/255/250	66	251	6	11	27%	8%	37	-0.7
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Yoel Romero 2019 · A	21	46	38→40	48→50	48	219/282/294	75	276	5	13	22%	7%	60	-1.0	208/265/288	80	289	6	7	28%	7%	52	-1.6	201/249/291	90	304	8	0	35%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Adan Velazquez 2011 · A	21	42→52	41→45	52→50	40	203/262/305	102	282	7	10	29%	6%	55	-1.4	223/270/319	96	299	8	9	27%	5%	62	-0.9	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Ameilis Carvajal 2009 · A	20	41	39→40	50	48	191/281/275	84	291	6	12	33%	10%	56	-1.3	194/264/268	74	320	4	9	37%	8%	46	-2.0	140/204/175	34	267	0	8	44%	7%	-3	-1.2