Miguel Mesa
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 188 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%23.0%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | 4 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 25% | 1.3 | 15.4% | 19.2% | -3.8% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | 4 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 25% | 1.3 | 15.4% | 19.2% | -3.8% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 7 | 34 | 152 | 26 | 28 | 1 | 64% | 3.1 | 11.6% | 23.0% | -11.4% | 0.9% | 4.28 | 5.51 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 7 | 34 | 152 | 26 | 28 | 1 | 64% | 3.1 | 17.1% | 18.4% | -1.3% | 0.7% | 4.28 | 4.44 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 9 | 6 | 19 | 96 | 24 | 20 | 0 | 67% | 2.1 | 17.0% | 26.0% | -9.0% | 0.0% | 6.27 | 4.96 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 9 | 6 | 19 | 96 | 24 | 20 | 0 | 67% | 2.1 | 25.0% | 20.8% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 6.27 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 4.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 13 | 56 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 6.7 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.90 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 25 | 14 | 59 | 279 | 39 | 66 | 1 | 56% | 2.3 | 14.0% | 23.7% | -9.7% | 0.5% | 5.06 | 5.18 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 48 | 200 | 951 | 133 | 225 | 5 | 56% | 2.3 | 14.0% | 23.7% | -9.7% | 0.5% | 5.06 | 5.18 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Mesa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.28 | 23.6% | 14.2% | 20 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 81 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 80 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 78 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 76 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2027 · 5.41 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.41 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 4.2% | .370 | 3.48 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 142 | -1.93 | 2.88 | 157 | 75 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 75 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 74 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 74 |
| Clay Chandler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.97 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .319 | 5.05 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 293 | +0.08 | 4.82 | 328 | 73 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 73 |
| Mason McGwire R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 73 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.68 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 240 | +0.52 | 3.38 | 270 | 73 |
| Greyfer Eregua R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.85 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 126 | 73 |
| Blair Henley R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 73 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 72 |
| Evan McKendry R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 18.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | .256 | 5.40 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 324 | +1.16 | 4.14 | 474 | 72 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 72 |
| Adam Leverett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.08 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 4.6% | .338 | 4.11 | 13.8% | 4.8% | 154 | -0.97 | 3.26 | 376 | 72 |