Miguel Mesa — OGILVIE

Miguel Mesa P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 188 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%23.0%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	4	1	5	26	4	5	0	25%	1.3	15.4%	19.2%	-3.8%	0.0%	5.06	4.24	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	4	1	5	26	4	5	0	25%	1.3	15.4%	19.2%	-3.8%	0.0%	5.06	4.41	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	7	34	152	26	28	1	64%	3.1	11.6%	23.0%	-11.4%	0.9%	4.28	5.53	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	7	34	152	26	28	1	64%	3.1	17.1%	18.4%	-1.3%	0.7%	4.28	4.44	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	6	19	96	24	20	0	67%	2.1	17.0%	26.0%	-9.0%	0.0%	6.27	4.96	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	6	19	96	24	20	0	67%	2.1	17.0%	26.0%	-9.0%	0.0%	6.27	4.96	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	9	6	19	96	24	20	0	67%	2.1	25.0%	20.8%	4.2%	0.0%	6.27	3.74	—
2025	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.94	—
2025	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.94	—
2025	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	4.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	2	2	11	46	11	6	1	100%	5.5	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	3	3	20	84	20	10	3	100%	6.7	23.4%	12.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.73	4.66	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	2	2	9	38	9	5	1	100%	4.5	23.4%	12.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.73	4.66	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	9	36	8	4	1	100%	8.6	23.4%	12.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.73	4.28	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	94	23	100%	5.9	23.4%	12.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.73	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		25	14	59	279	39	66	1	56%	2.3	14.0%	23.7%	-9.7%	0.5%	5.06	5.18	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	48	200	951	133	225	5	56%	2.3	14.0%	23.7%	-9.7%	0.5%	5.06	5.18	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Mesa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	23.0%	13.4%	3.0%	—	4.66	23.4%	11.4%	20	-0.22	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	84
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	77
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	76
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	76
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.5%	13.9%	142	-2.14	2.93	177	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	75
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	74
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.10	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.04	3.84	249	73
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	73
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	72
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	71
Ryan Vanderhei R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.4%	14.1%	0.8%	.284	4.45	17.9%	2.9%	114	+0.50	3.75	152	71
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	71
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	71
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	71
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	71
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	70
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	70