Marvin Alcantara

Marvin AlcantaraSS Portland Sea Dogs

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 157 lbs AA H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION306 act + 204 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .257 / .298

PA204

HR2

SB6

K%23

BB%5

BABIP273

ISO84

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	224	198	43	9	0	1	20	47	5	14	2	217	305	278	583	61	278	21	9	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	224	189	57	15	0	1	29	33	5	14	2	302	408	397	805	95	359	15	13	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	2 teams	—	259	236	39	5	0	2	18	91	3	12	5	165	233	212	445	47	255	35	7	200	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	2 teams	—	259	224	51	8	0	2	30	62	3	12	5	228	327	290	617	63	302	24	12	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	456	434	84	6	2	3	17	163	4	13	3	194	231	237	468	44	301	36	4	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	456	423	105	10	3	3	28	103	4	13	3	248	301	307	608	59	321	23	6	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	2 teams	—	488	453	97	13	1	2	26	104	2	8	5	214	260	260	520	46	268	21	5	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	2 teams	—	488	437	104	19	1	3	42	75	2	8	5	238	308	307	614	69	276	15	9	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AA	BOS	—	306	283	61	14	1	5	14	72	2	15	3	216	258	325	583	110	263	24	5	255	53	-16	+2	+0	+3	+9	-0.2
YTD	21	AA	BOS	—	306	277	66	16	1	6	20	56	2	15	3	238	294	368	663	130	270	18	7	291	81	-7	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.7
ROS	21	AA	BOS	2%	204	191	41	8	1	2	10	47	1	6	2	215	257	298	556	84	266	23	5	247	47	-12	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
ROS	21	MLB	BOS	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		272	25	0	247	47	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	21	AA	BOS	—	310	287	62	14	1	5	14	73	2	15	3	216	257	324	581	108	264	24	5	255	53	-16	+2	+0	+3	+9	-0.3
TOT	21	AA	BOS	—	510	474	102	22	2	7	24	119	3	21	5	215	257	314	572	99	267	23	5	252	51	-28	+2	+0	+5	+14	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	BOS	35%	553	515	113	21	2	9	30	123	3	14	4	219	266	320	587	101	267	22	5	263	60	-25	+1	+0	+6	+16	-0.3
2028	23	MLB	BOS	49%	597	554	124	23	2	12	34	130	4	15	4	224	274	338	611	114	270	22	6	274	68	-22	+1	+0	+6	+17	0.3
2029	24	MLB	BOS	53%	615	569	129	24	2	13	37	132	4	15	4	227	279	344	623	118	272	21	6	280	73	-19	+1	+0	+7	+17	0.7
2030	25	MLB	BOS	55%	627	579	132	24	2	14	39	134	4	15	4	228	281	349	630	121	272	21	6	284	75	-17	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.9
2031	26	MLB	BOS	59%	634	584	135	25	2	15	40	135	5	15	4	231	286	358	644	127	272	21	6	285	76	-17	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.9
2027	22	MLB	BOS	35%	195	182	41	8	1	3	10	43	1	5	1	225	269	330	599	104	273	22	5	263	60	-9	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	BOS	49%	291	270	62	12	1	6	17	63	2	7	2	230	280	348	628	119	276	22	6	274	68	-11	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2029	24	MLB	BOS	53%	325	301	69	13	1	7	19	70	2	8	2	229	280	349	628	120	278	22	6	280	73	-10	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2030	25	MLB	BOS	55%	344	318	74	14	1	8	21	74	2	8	2	233	284	358	643	126	278	22	6	283	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2031	26	MLB	BOS	59%	377	347	82	16	1	9	24	80	3	9	2	236	291	366	657	130	278	21	6	285	76	-10	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1536	1422	329	63	5	33	91	331	10	37	9	231	282	352	635	121	278	22	6	278	71	-50	+4	+0	+16	+44	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	139	27	2	14	39	140	4	16	4	231	282	352	634	121	277	22	6	278	71	-21	+2	+0	+7	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	4657	4313	937	158	14	73	271	1106	35	127	37	217	269	311	580	94	273	24	6	260	57	-227	+11	+0	+50	+132	-3.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	131	22	2	10	38	154	5	18	5	218	270	311	581	93	274	24	6	260	57	-32	+2	+0	+7	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	224	189	57	15	0	1	29	33	5	14	2	302	408	397	805	95	359	15	13	368	140	+10	+2	—	—	+6	1.9
2023	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	83	74	15	1	0	1	7	27	1	6	0	203	280	257	537	54	298	33	8	250	50	-5	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	176	150	36	7	0	1	23	35	2	6	5	240	349	307	655	67	304	20	13	306	93	-1	-1	—	—	+5	0.3
2024	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	456	423	105	10	3	3	28	103	4	13	3	248	301	307	608	59	321	23	6	278	71	-15	+1	—	—	+13	-0.1
2025	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	357	319	72	15	1	2	31	58	0	4	2	226	294	298	592	72	263	16	9	268	63	-15	+0	—	—	+10	-0.5
2025	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	131	118	32	4	0	1	11	17	2	4	3	271	344	331	674	59	310	13	8	311	96	-1	-0	—	—	+4	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,538	33	37	228	276	346	+16	+9	1.5	1.5
	/162	664	14	16	228	276	346	+7.1	+3.9	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marvin Alcantara (OGILVIE)	21	45	30	45	40	215/257/314	99	267	7	21	23%	5%	51	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Joseph 2018 · A	21	44	34→30	46→50	41	205/238/250	45	256	2	9	20%	4%	29	-3.2	206/243/276	70	259	4	10	21%	4%	38	-2.6	206/223/283	77	240	4	15	16%	1%	27	-0.7
✕Jesus Alastre 2017 · A	20	48	35→30	44→50	42	225/281/286	61	280	2	9	20%	4%	58	-1.2	226/272/304	78	311	4	8	27%	4%	59	-1.1	249/282/342	92	348	4	9	28%	2%	67	-0.1
✕Dixon Mavares 2007 · A	21	46	35→30	51→50	44	215/285/275	60	277	1	11	22%	6%	57	-1.2	220/294/288	68	262	3	10	16%	8%	65	-0.7	223/303/283	60	253	3	11	12%	8%	65	-0.2
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	42	205/260/282	78	258	5	17	22%	5%	48	-1.9	205/257/290	85	298	7	10	32%	5%	49	-1.8	185/231/261	77	287	9	9	37%	3%	28	-0.8
✕Brallan Perez 2017 · A	21	50	36→30	46→50	50	231/292/295	63	268	3	11	15%	7%	65	-0.7	241/293/297	56	298	3	8	19%	6%	66	-0.6	236/292/279	43	298	2	7	20%	6%	56	-0.7
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	34	-2.8	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	56	-1.3	240/291/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Abel Nieves 2007 · A	21	44	35→40	47→45	46	208/267/270	62	270	2	6	23%	7%	48	-1.9	228/295/306	78	316	4	5	26%	9%	69	-0.4	237/311/318	81	332	4	4	27%	10%	75	+0.0
✕Enmanuel Zabala 2016 · A	21	46	35→30	47→50	45	216/270/281	65	264	2	12	18%	5%	52	-1.6	215/263/268	53	317	2	10	31%	5%	45	-2.1	209/256/242	33	319	1	12	33%	4%	33	-1.0
✕Jimmy Mojica 2021 · A	21	45	37→40	47→50	41	212/261/283	72	278	4	8	25%	5%	48	-1.9	202/265/291	89	285	8	6	30%	6%	53	-1.5	182/249/283	101	230	13	4	26%	5%	43	-0.7
✕Bill Pujols 2015 · A	21	43	37→40	43→50	46	204/263/281	76	253	4	7	20%	6%	49	-1.8	197/257/271	74	281	3	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	146/212/197	51	225	0	5	32%	6%	4	-0.9
✕Victor Moscote 2015 · A	21	46	35→30	43→45	41	219/263/276	58	290	3	6	25%	5%	47	-1.9	202/259/260	58	272	2	4	25%	6%	42	-2.3	180/251/225	45	240	1	1	24%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Wilfredo Tovar 2013 · AA	21	48→56	36→40	46→60	47	223/273/290	68	254	2	11	13%	5%	56	-1.3	250/295/320	70	283	4	16	13%	5%	72	-0.2	263/303/325	62	296	4	21	12%	4%	73	-0.1
✕Luis Alberto Sanz 2013 · AA	22	43	36→30	47→40	44	201/249/263	62	248	3	8	20%	5%	38	-2.6	212/270/280	68	250	5	6	16%	7%	52	-1.6	217/279/252	35	248	2	2	12%	8%	46	-0.7
✕Jose Bernardo Lopez 2012 · AAA	22	46	37→30	45→50	41	223/256/290	67	278	5	15	22%	4%	47	-1.9	244/275/298	54	298	3	10	18%	4%	56	-1.3	267/306/320	53	321	2	12	17%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Anneury Peguero 2008 · A	21	48	35→30	48→50	51	224/298/278	54	280	2	11	20%	8%	63	-0.8	205/282/270	65	269	4	12	23%	9%	55	-1.4	150/247/186	36	193	3	18	22%	10%	17	-1.1
✕Ivan Bellazetin 2008 · AAA	21	46→52	35→40	41→55	41	215/246/273	58	258	3	10	18%	4%	38	-2.6	234/269/303	69	285	3	15	18%	4%	56	-1.3	250/287/337	87	290	8	5	16%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Omar Guerra 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	48→50	45	193/274/246	53	257	2	9	24%	7%	46	-2.0	220/315/279	59	272	2	11	19%	6%	73	-0.1	229/342/268	39	277	0	15	15%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Claudio Finol 2021 · A	21	42	37→40	43→45	40	200/246/273	72	266	4	5	26%	5%	39	-2.5	191/247/273	82	270	6	8	30%	6%	40	-2.4	172/238/248	76	248	7	10	32%	6%	29	-0.7
✕Luis Porchas 2011 · AAA	21	42	39→30	45→50	42	205/251/292	87	249	6	11	20%	5%	46	-2.0	225/275/318	93	280	9	10	22%	4%	64	-0.8	228/270/284	56	304	4	9	25%	4%	48	-0.5
✕Leo Rodriguez 2013 · A	21	44	35→30	45	45	206/264/263	57	256	3	7	20%	6%	45	-2.1	226/273/271	45	281	1	6	19%	5%	50	-1.8	240/283/264	24	293	0	5	17%	5%	48	-0.8