Jholbran Herder — OGILVIE

Jholbran Herder P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.83

FIP5.83

K%10.0%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%-2.9%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4545

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	12	12	39	160	33	11	1	100%	3.2	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	0.9%	2.56	3.50	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	12	12	39	160	33	11	1	100%	3.2	20.6%	6.9%	13.7%	0.6%	2.56	2.58	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	4	3	8	34	4	3	1	75%	2.1	11.8%	8.8%	2.9%	2.9%	3.24	4.84	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	4	3	8	34	4	3	1	75%	2.1	11.8%	8.8%	2.9%	2.9%	3.24	4.84	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	4	3	8	34	4	3	1	75%	2.1	11.8%	8.8%	2.9%	2.9%	3.24	4.78	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	12	3	35	141	24	16	0	25%	2.9	11.6%	14.2%	-2.6%	0.0%	2.57	3.92	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	12	3	35	141	24	16	0	25%	2.9	11.6%	14.2%	-2.6%	0.0%	2.57	3.92	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	12	3	35	141	24	16	0	25%	2.9	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	0.0%	2.57	3.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	24	4	63	314	43	26	6	17%	2.6	10.1%	9.8%	0.4%	2.4%	8.14	4.77	—
2025	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	24	4	63	314	43	26	6	17%	2.6	10.1%	9.8%	0.4%	2.4%	8.14	4.77	—
2025	20	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	24	4	63	314	43	26	6	17%	2.6	13.7%	8.3%	5.4%	1.9%	8.14	4.21	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	50	2	64	302	75	53	6	4%	1.3	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	2.6%	5.77	5.59	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	50	2	64	302	75	53	6	4%	1.3	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	2.6%	5.77	5.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	LAD	50	2	64	302	75	53	6	4%	1.3	24.8%	17.5%	7.3%	2.0%	5.77	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAD	63	0	66	278	37	34	8	0%	1.0	13.4%	12.1%	1.4%	2.8%	5.52	5.42	-0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	65	0	68	288	45	33	8	0%	1.1	15.6%	11.5%	4.1%	2.8%	5.26	5.15	-0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	67	0	70	296	50	33	8	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	2.8%	5.08	4.99	-0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	68	0	71	299	53	33	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.0%	6.6%	2.7%	4.96	4.90	-0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	68	0	71	299	54	33	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	2.7%	4.91	4.87	-0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	66	0	70	295	53	33	8	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.1%	6.8%	2.8%	4.91	4.91	-0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	64	0	68	286	51	32	8	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.2%	6.5%	2.9%	4.96	4.99	-0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	62	0	65	273	48	31	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.4%	6.1%	3.0%	5.06	5.12	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAD	30	0	32	135	18	16	4	0%	1.1	13.4%	12.1%	1.4%	2.8%	5.52	5.42	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	48	0	50	211	33	24	6	0%	1.0	15.6%	11.5%	4.1%	2.8%	5.26	5.15	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	55	0	58	245	41	27	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	2.8%	5.08	4.99	-0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	60	0	63	266	47	29	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	11.0%	6.6%	2.7%	4.96	4.90	-0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	62	0	65	274	49	30	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	2.7%	4.91	4.87	-0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	62	0	65	274	49	30	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.1%	6.8%	2.8%	4.91	4.91	-0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	60	0	63	266	47	30	8	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.2%	6.5%	2.9%	4.96	4.99	-0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	58	0	61	258	45	29	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	11.4%	6.1%	3.0%	5.06	5.12	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		435	0	457	1930	330	217	55	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	2.8%	5.05	4.63	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	95	24	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	2.8%	5.05	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		102	24	209	951	130	130	18	24%	2.0	13.7%	13.7%	0.0%	1.9%	5.25	4.69	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	23	200	910	124	124	17	24%	2.0	13.7%	13.7%	0.0%	1.9%	5.25	4.69	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jholbran Herder (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.83	10.0%	12.9%	2.9%	—	5.18	15.3%	3.8%	204	-0.65	—	—	—
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	90
Willians Vasquez R 2018 · 5.45 FIP	21	SU	5.45	12.2%	13.9%	3.0%	.292	3.20	13.9%	3.9%	30	-2.25	3.20	154	86
Luis Tejeda R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	10.7%	13.5%	2.9%	.319	5.77	16.3%	0.5%	67	+0.24	3.28	126	86
Rogelio Martinez R 2015 · 5.25 FIP	23	SU	5.25	10.0%	9.7%	3.2%	.304	5.20	11.6%	4.4%	73	-0.05	5.20	152	85
Antonio Herrera R 2016 · 5.21 FIP	21	SU	5.21	10.6%	14.2%	2.2%	.283	4.95	8.9%	-8.1%	38	-0.26	4.48	107	85
Raul Carrillo R 2015 · 5.26 FIP	23	SW	5.26	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	.364	4.56	10.8%	1.4%	169	-0.70	4.40	348	84
Franly Urena R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	19	SU	6.06	11.2%	12.4%	4.3%	.297	5.67	18.1%	-0.2%	103	-0.39	5.13	122	83
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	83
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	83
Walker Weickel R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	21	SU	4.92	13.1%	11.7%	2.6%	.357	4.09	15.6%	8.1%	188	-0.83	4.02	273	83
Jesus Rios R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SU	5.41	10.4%	14.8%	2.4%	.321	5.03	13.7%	2.3%	151	-0.38	3.86	175	83
Carlos De Leon R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	20	SU	4.72	13.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.341	4.15	19.5%	7.4%	80	-0.57	4.15	132	83
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	82
David Tiburcio R 2023 · 6.18 FIP	21	SU	6.18	12.1%	15.3%	3.9%	.297	6.25	13.0%	-1.1%	45	+0.07	4.36	126	82
Zac Reininger R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	22	SU	4.92	11.8%	9.8%	2.9%	.286	3.34	21.1%	13.6%	125	-1.58	2.58	259	81
Landon Tomkins R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SU	5.26	6.2%	13.1%	1.9%	.281	3.97	15.9%	4.1%	166	-1.29	3.25	182	81
Fernando Calderon R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SU	4.68	12.1%	13.3%	1.7%	.336	4.32	11.4%	0.9%	37	-0.36	2.29	129	81
Anderson Bido R 2021 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	11.3%	13.0%	2.5%	.275	3.92	18.3%	12.6%	137	-1.27	2.90	292	81
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	81
Justin Lawrence R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	21	SU	4.85	10.0%	9.7%	2.5%	.341	3.99	19.2%	5.2%	108	-0.86	1.39	469	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	66	16.4%	11.4%	1.09	5.13
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04