Jholbran Herder
P
Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 131
ERA5.81
FIP5.81
K%10.0%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%-2.7%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 12 | 12 | 39 | 160 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 100% | 3.2 | 14.0% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 2.56 | 3.51 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 12 | 12 | 39 | 160 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 100% | 3.2 | 20.6% | 6.9% | 13.7% | 0.6% | 2.56 | 2.58 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 4 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 2.1 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.24 | 4.84 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 4 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 2.1 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.24 | 4.78 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 12 | 3 | 35 | 141 | 24 | 16 | 0 | 25% | 2.9 | 11.6% | 14.2% | -2.6% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 12 | 3 | 35 | 141 | 24 | 16 | 0 | 25% | 2.9 | 17.0% | 11.3% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 24 | 4 | 63 | 314 | 43 | 26 | 6 | 17% | 2.6 | 10.1% | 9.8% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 8.14 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 24 | 4 | 63 | 314 | 43 | 26 | 6 | 17% | 2.6 | 13.7% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 8.14 | 4.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | 32 | 1 | 41 | 197 | 41 | 36 | 4 | 3% | 1.3 | 15.4% | 21.6% | -6.2% | 2.6% | 5.98 | 5.98 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 18 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.0% | 12.8% | -2.7% | 2.8% | 5.81 | 5.81 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 12.8% | -2.7% | 2.8% | 5.81 | 5.81 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 83 | 374 | 59 | 59 | 9 | — | — | 15.7% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 5.89 | 5.89 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.4% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 5.50 | 5.39 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 30 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 33 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 5.06 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.4% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 5.50 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 22 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 5.13 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 28 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 5.06 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 89 | 0 | 94 | 397 | 62 | 45 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 4.74 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 132 | 96 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 84 | 23 | 186 | 846 | 105 | 110 | 15 | 27% | 2.2 | 12.4% | 13.0% | -0.6% | 1.7% | 5.24 | 4.65 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 25 | 200 | 911 | 113 | 118 | 16 | 27% | 2.2 | 12.4% | 13.0% | -0.6% | 1.7% | 5.24 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jholbran Herder (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.81 | 10.0% | 12.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.16 | 15.3% | 3.8% | 137 | -0.65 | — | — | — |
| Eli Saul R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.49 | 12.6% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.48 | 13.8% | -2.9% | 98 | -0.01 | 5.40 | 157 | 89 |
| Willians Vasquez R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.45 | 12.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.20 | 13.9% | 3.9% | 30 | -2.25 | 3.20 | 154 | 87 |
| Rogelio Martinez R 2028 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .304 | 5.56 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 73 | +0.41 | 5.15 | 152 | 85 |
| Antonio Herrera R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.21 | 10.6% | 14.2% | 2.2% | .283 | 4.95 | 8.9% | -8.1% | 38 | -0.26 | 4.48 | 107 | 85 |
| Austin Amaral R 2027 · 5.80 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.80 | 12.1% | 14.4% | 3.4% | .254 | 3.65 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 99 | -2.15 | 3.55 | 122 | 85 |
| Luis Tejeda R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.44 | 10.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | .319 | 5.77 | 16.3% | 0.5% | 67 | +0.33 | 3.28 | 126 | 83 |
| Raul Carrillo R 2028 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.57 | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .364 | 4.54 | 10.8% | 1.4% | 169 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 348 | 83 |
| Jack Jasiak R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.01 | 12.1% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.05 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 179 | -0.96 | 3.25 | 248 | 82 |
| Walker Weickel R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.38 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .357 | 3.92 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 188 | -1.46 | 3.76 | 273 | 82 |
| Brayan Romero R 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.28 | 9.2% | 15.6% | 1.8% | .229 | 4.56 | 11.7% | -2.3% | 144 | -0.72 | 4.01 | 164 | 81 |
| Alejandro Lugo R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.44 | 12.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .269 | 5.72 | 17.2% | -0.9% | 18 | +0.28 | 3.77 | 159 | 81 |
| Jack Sinclair R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.94 | 10.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .324 | 3.62 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 171 | -1.32 | 2.82 | 285 | 81 |
| Dylan Rheault R 2028 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 81 |
| Carlos De Leon R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.66 | 13.5% | 14.8% | 1.5% | .341 | 3.98 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 80 | -0.68 | 3.98 | 132 | 81 |
| Evan Beal R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.61 | 13.6% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .279 | 4.66 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 101 | +0.05 | 3.86 | 163 | 81 |
| German Taveras R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.78 | 13.6% | 13.5% | 2.0% | .265 | 7.24 | 10.9% | -4.8% | 47 | +2.46 | 4.78 | 108 | 81 |
| Ezequiel Ventura R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.57 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.95 | 14.1% | 5.7% | 32 | -0.62 | 3.77 | 151 | 81 |
| Fernando Calderon R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.68 | 12.1% | 13.3% | 1.7% | .336 | 4.32 | 11.4% | 0.9% | 37 | -0.36 | 2.29 | 129 | 81 |
| Abel Moya R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.89 | 11.3% | 12.7% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 126 | 80 |
| Nolan Kingham R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.70 | 12.1% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .338 | 4.35 | 13.1% | 7.0% | 260 | -0.35 | 4.06 | 502 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 14.1% | 11.8% | 1.08 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |