Jesus Rios — OGILVIE

Jesus Rios P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%12.9%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%2.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	21	0	24	118	18	14	2	0%	1.1	10.4%	14.8%	-4.5%	2.4%	5.62	5.41	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	21	0	24	118	18	14	2	0%	1.1	10.4%	14.8%	-4.5%	2.4%	5.62	5.41	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	21	0	24	118	18	14	2	0%	1.1	15.3%	11.9%	3.4%	1.7%	5.62	4.43	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	38	179	33	13	2	0%	1.6	13.3%	8.7%	4.6%	1.4%	4.93	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	38	179	33	13	2	0%	1.6	13.3%	8.7%	4.6%	1.4%	4.93	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	38	179	33	13	2	0%	1.6	18.4%	7.3%	11.2%	1.1%	4.93	3.07	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	35	0	55	242	44	18	4	0%	1.6	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	2.1%	3.60	4.15	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	35	0	55	242	44	18	4	0%	1.6	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	2.1%	3.60	4.15	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	35	0	55	242	44	18	4	0%	1.6	18.2%	7.4%	10.7%	1.7%	3.60	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	33	1	58	283	50	39	11	3%	1.8	13.6%	15.8%	-2.2%	4.9%	6.52	6.63	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	33	1	58	283	50	39	11	3%	1.8	13.6%	15.8%	-2.2%	4.9%	6.52	6.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	MIA	33	1	58	283	50	39	11	3%	1.8	17.7%	13.8%	3.9%	3.9%	6.52	5.49	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	6	24	3	2	1	0%	1.1	12.9%	10.3%	2.6%	2.8%	5.23	5.23	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	64	307	53	41	12	—	—	17.3%	13.5%	3.8%	3.8%	6.40	6.50	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	43	29	8	0%	1.0	15.1%	10.1%	5.0%	2.8%	5.07	5.02	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	47	29	8	0%	1.0	16.3%	10.0%	6.4%	2.8%	4.96	4.91	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	283	47	28	8	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.0%	6.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.92	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	274	46	28	8	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.1%	6.6%	3.0%	4.96	4.99	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	18	12	3	0%	1.0	15.1%	10.1%	5.0%	2.8%	5.07	5.02	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	43	0	45	190	31	19	5	0%	1.0	16.3%	10.0%	6.4%	2.8%	4.96	4.91	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	37	22	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.0%	6.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.92	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	52	0	55	232	39	24	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.1%	6.6%	3.0%	4.96	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	125	77	22	0%	1.1	16.3%	10.0%	6.3%	2.9%	4.97	4.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	85	24	0%	1.1	16.3%	10.0%	6.3%	2.9%	4.97	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		113	1	175	822	108	99	24	1%	1.6	13.2%	12.0%	1.2%	2.9%	5.13	5.12	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	1	200	938	124	113	28	1%	1.6	13.2%	12.0%	1.2%	2.9%	5.13	5.12	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Rios (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	12.9%	10.3%	2.8%	—	4.95	16.0%	6.0%	203	-0.28	—	—	—
Troy Neiman R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.47	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.07	4.03	199	93
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	92
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	91
Alejandro Barraza R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	13.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.291	4.64	13.1%	4.7%	93	+0.33	3.27	174	89
Robbie Aviles R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	24	SU	4.69	11.5%	8.7%	2.6%	.343	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	58	-1.06	3.63	172	89
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	88
Angel Nesbitt R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	24	SU	4.24	14.0%	9.7%	2.0%	.335	3.66	15.4%	8.2%	44	-0.58	3.66	106	88
Darin Gillies R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	15.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.270	4.95	22.5%	12.9%	124	+0.73	4.22	295	88
Jency Solis R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	13.4%	9.8%	1.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.77	116	87
John Kuchno R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	24	SU	5.44	8.9%	8.7%	3.6%	.247	5.14	10.2%	1.6%	84	-0.30	2.43	162	87
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	87
Josh Uhen R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.303	4.02	15.6%	1.2%	82	-0.07	3.17	185	86
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	86
David Berg R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	14.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.41	123	86
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	85
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	85
Robert Coles R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	9.8%	9.4%	1.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.29	109	85
Damien Magnifico R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	13.9%	11.0%	1.5%	.241	3.64	19.1%	4.9%	186	-0.50	2.96	293	85
Carlos Torres R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SU	4.10	15.2%	9.0%	2.1%	.315	4.39	15.2%	8.6%	125	+0.29	3.71	187	85
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	15.5%	10.1%	1.11	5.03
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41