Jesus Rios
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.24
FIP5.24
K%12.9%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%2.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 21 | 0 | 24 | 118 | 18 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.4% | 14.8% | -4.5% | 2.4% | 5.62 | 5.41 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 21 | 0 | 24 | 118 | 18 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 5.62 | 4.43 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 38 | 179 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 13.3% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 4.93 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 38 | 179 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.4% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 1.1% | 4.93 | 3.07 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 35 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 44 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.0% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 3.60 | 4.17 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 35 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 44 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 1.7% | 3.60 | 3.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 18 | 0 | 30 | 159 | 30 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.5% | 15.2% | -0.7% | 5.5% | 6.82 | 6.82 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 37 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.24 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 98 | 443 | 67 | 50 | 15 | — | — | 15.1% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.73 | 5.73 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 43 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 47 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 47 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 31 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 86 | 54 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.57 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 136 | 85 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 0 | 148 | 698 | 93 | 78 | 19 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.3% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.90 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 0 | 200 | 945 | 126 | 106 | 26 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.3% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Rios (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.96 | 16.0% | 6.0% | 203 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.93 | 13.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.60 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 135 | -0.33 | 3.84 | 199 | 92 |
| Mark Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.15 | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.72 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 112 | -0.43 | 4.62 | 185 | 90 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 2.4% | .284 | 3.85 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.24 | 172 | 90 |
| David Reid-Foley R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 6.53 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 33 | +1.64 | 4.89 | 110 | 89 |
| Angel Nesbitt R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.33 | 14.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .335 | 3.72 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 44 | -0.61 | 3.72 | 106 | 89 |
| Robbie Aviles R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.77 | 11.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .343 | 3.62 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 58 | -1.15 | 3.62 | 172 | 89 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 88 |
| Alejandro Barraza R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 13.2% | 8.3% | 1.9% | .291 | 4.48 | 13.1% | 4.7% | 93 | +0.38 | 3.36 | 174 | 88 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 15.0% | 10.8% | 1.8% | .270 | 5.19 | 22.5% | 12.9% | 124 | +0.99 | 4.20 | 295 | 88 |
| Brayden Spears R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.07 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .337 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 44 | +0.18 | 4.07 | 105 | 87 |
| Parker Markel R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.69 | 13.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.16 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 61 | -1.53 | 3.16 | 266 | 87 |
| Robert Coles R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 9.8% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 109 | 86 |
| Dylan Simmons R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 12.8% | 11.9% | 1.4% | .306 | 6.74 | 12.6% | 0.1% | 23 | +2.48 | 3.73 | 125 | 86 |
| Ian Villers R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.12 | 15.6% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 107 | 86 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 86 |
| David Berg R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.74 | 14.1% | 8.1% | 3.3% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 123 | 85 |
| John Kuchno R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.66 | 8.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .247 | 5.21 | 10.2% | 1.6% | 84 | -0.45 | 2.43 | 162 | 85 |
| Damien Magnifico R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 13.9% | 11.0% | 1.4% | .241 | 3.65 | 19.1% | 4.9% | 186 | -0.43 | 2.97 | 293 | 85 |
| Jordan Piche R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 12.3% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 115 | 85 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 15.3% | 10.1% | 1.10 | 5.05 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |