Justin Lawrence — OGILVIE

Justin Lawrence P Washington Nationals

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.16

FIP4.09

K%23.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.380

SI (43%)

SL (44%)

FB-3.0 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	6	0	6	29	3	1	1	0%	0.9	10.3%	3.4%	6.9%	3.4%	9.53	4.56	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	6	0	6	29	3	1	1	0%	0.9	10.3%	3.4%	6.9%	3.4%	9.53	4.86	—
2016	21	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	26	0	36	170	23	14	4	0%	1.4	10.0%	9.7%	0.3%	2.5%	7.18	4.85	—
2016	21	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	26	0	36	170	23	14	4	0%	1.4	13.5%	8.2%	5.3%	2.4%	7.18	4.42	—
2017	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	0	16	63	20	4	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	1.7%	1.65	2.98	—
2017	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	16	0	16	63	20	4	1	0%	1.0	31.7%	6.3%	25.4%	1.6%	1.65	2.18	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	55	0	54	223	62	27	2	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.9%	7.5%	0.7%	2.65	3.46	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	55	0	54	223	62	27	2	0%	1.0	27.8%	12.1%	15.7%	0.9%	2.65	2.79	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	37	185	32	29	4	0%	1.0	14.2%	17.0%	-2.8%	2.1%	8.76	5.21	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	37	185	32	29	4	0%	1.0	17.3%	15.7%	1.6%	2.2%	8.76	5.13	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	49	228	47	30	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	1.2%	6.06	3.87	+0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	49	228	47	30	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	13.2%	7.5%	1.3%	6.06	3.81	+0.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	72	309	97	35	5	0%	1.1	29.5%	11.5%	18.0%	1.5%	4.62	2.91	+1.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	72	309	97	35	5	0%	1.1	31.4%	11.3%	20.1%	1.6%	4.62	2.77	+1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	69	0	75	326	78	32	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	1.4%	3.72	3.07	+1.3
2023	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	69	0	75	326	78	32	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	1.4%	3.72	3.07	+1.3
2023	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	69	0	75	326	78	32	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	1.5%	3.72	3.17	+1.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	284	45	33	9	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.5%	4.7%	2.9%	6.75	4.76	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	284	45	33	9	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.5%	4.7%	2.9%	6.75	4.76	-0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	60	284	45	33	9	0%	1.1	15.8%	11.6%	4.2%	3.2%	6.75	5.20	-0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	25	104	36	13	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	8.7%	24.6%	0.0%	2.88	1.39	+1.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	25	104	36	13	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	8.7%	24.6%	0.0%	2.88	1.39	+1.0
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	25	104	36	13	0	0%	1.0	34.6%	12.5%	22.1%	0.0%	2.88	1.78	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			236	0	246	1128	254	137	26	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.3%	5.34	4.08	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	56	0	52	257	69	40	10	0%	0.9	25.1%	15.1%	10.1%	3.9%	6.75	5.04	-0.3
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	56	0	52	257	69	40	10	0%	0.9	25.1%	15.1%	10.1%	3.9%	6.75	5.04	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	WSH	19	0	18	80	26	13	1	0%	0.9	32.5%	16.2%	16.2%	1.2%	5.60	3.10	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	WSH	37	0	34	177	43	27	9	0%	0.9	24.3%	15.3%	9.0%	5.1%	7.34	5.77	-0.5
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	WSH	37	0	34	177	43	27	9	0%	0.9	24.3%	15.3%	9.0%	5.1%	7.34	5.77	-0.5
ROS	31	MLB MLE	WSH	4	0	4	16	4	2	0	0%	1.0	23.6%	12.3%	11.3%	2.6%	4.16	4.09	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	WSH	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	23.6%	12.3%	11.3%	2.6%	4.16	4.09	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	56	273	73	42	10	—	—	26.7%	15.4%	11.3%	3.8%	6.57	4.98	-0.3
FULL	31	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	38	161	73	42	10	—	—	45.2%	26.1%	19.1%	6.5%	9.62	6.14	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	WSH	43	0	45	191	43	25	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	3.4%	5.03	5.11	-0.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	40	0	42	175	38	23	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	3.7%	5.24	5.39	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	WSH	41	0	43	182	41	23	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	3.4%	5.03	5.11	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	37	0	39	165	35	22	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	3.7%	5.24	5.39	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	0	332	1492	334	185	39	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.4%	10.0%	2.6%	5.28	4.20	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	898	201	111	23	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.4%	10.0%	2.6%	5.28	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		464	0	483	2178	466	263	42	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.1%	9.3%	1.9%	5.28	3.88	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		192	0	200	902	193	109	17	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.1%	9.3%	1.9%	5.28	3.88	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Lawrence (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	22.4%	11.2%	2.5%	—	5.24	21.9%	8.8%	87	+0.88	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	81
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	79
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	77
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	75
Blake Treinen R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	31	SU	4.98	22.2%	13.5%	3.7%	.302	2.60	27.3%	19.4%	98	-2.38	1.53	547	74
Tyler Chatwood R 2021 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	26.2%	14.5%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	537	74
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	73
Brad Boxberger R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	31	SU	4.46	22.1%	13.9%	2.7%	.293	3.44	27.6%	18.2%	147	-1.02	3.01	363	73
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	73
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.28	244	72
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	72
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	72
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	72
Dan Winkler R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	31	SU	4.76	21.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.233	3.87	24.4%	10.4%	46	-0.89	2.40	231	71
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	71
Adam Ottavino R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	25.9%	15.2%	2.9%	.296	2.60	33.3%	22.0%	162	-1.84	2.10	488	71
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	71
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	22.1%	12.4%	1.23	4.88
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99