Justin Lawrence
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
+0.3
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 211 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.20
xFIP3.58
SIERA3.00
K%22.6%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.6%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD3535
K†5555
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p8430.7%
K%
p8929.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.393
SI (39%)
SL (42%)
FB-3.0 (58%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 6 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.53 | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | 26 | 0 | 36 | 170 | 23 | 14 | 4 | 10.0% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 7.18 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 16 | 0 | 16 | 63 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 1.65 | 3.03 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 55 | 0 | 54 | 223 | 62 | 27 | 2 | 21.4% | 13.9% | 0.7% | 2.65 | 3.45 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 38 | 0 | 37 | 185 | 32 | 29 | 4 | 14.2% | 17.0% | 2.0% | 8.76 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 50 | 0 | 49 | 228 | 47 | 30 | 3 | 19.0% | 13.4% | 1.3% | 6.06 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 66 | 0 | 72 | 309 | 97 | 35 | 5 | 29.5% | 11.5% | 1.4% | 4.62 | 2.83 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 69 | 0 | 75 | 326 | 78 | 32 | 5 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 3.72 | 3.13 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 57 | 0 | 60 | 284 | 45 | 33 | 9 | 16.1% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 6.75 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 25 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 33.3% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 1.39 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | 8.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PIT | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 42 | 184 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 3.47 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 40 | 19 | 5 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 22.7% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 20.5% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 417 | 0 | 439 | 1963 | 414 | 230 | 36 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 5.17 | 3.80 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 894 | 189 | 105 | 16 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 5.17 | 3.80 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Lawrence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.70 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 115 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 80 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 76 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 76 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 75 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 75 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 75 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .308 | 4.77 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 90 | +1.32 | 3.45 | 170 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 73 |
| Jason Urquidez R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.58 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .386 | 1.79 | 25.5% | 20.7% | 90 | -1.79 | 1.25 | 123 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 72 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 72 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 72 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 72 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 72 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 71 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.61 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .286 | 4.13 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.48 | 4.13 | 156 | 71 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.