Justin Lawrence
P
Washington Nationals
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 211 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA4.62
FIP4.52
K%23.8%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p6124.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.380
SI (42%)
SL (44%)
FB-3.0 (56%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 6 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 10.3% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 9.53 | 4.56 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 6 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 10.3% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 9.53 | 4.86 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | 26 | 0 | 36 | 170 | 23 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 10.0% | 9.7% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 7.18 | 4.63 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | 26 | 0 | 36 | 170 | 23 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.5% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 7.18 | 4.42 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 16 | 0 | 16 | 63 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 16.0% | 1.4% | 1.65 | 2.83 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 16 | 0 | 16 | 63 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.7% | 6.3% | 25.4% | 1.6% | 1.65 | 2.18 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 55 | 0 | 54 | 223 | 62 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.9% | 7.5% | 0.5% | 2.65 | 3.35 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 55 | 0 | 54 | 223 | 62 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 0.9% | 2.65 | 2.79 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 37 | 185 | 32 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 17.0% | -2.8% | 1.9% | 8.76 | 5.08 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 37 | 185 | 32 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 15.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 8.76 | 5.13 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 49 | 228 | 47 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 6.06 | 3.78 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 49 | 228 | 47 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 6.06 | 3.81 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 72 | 309 | 97 | 35 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.5% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 1.4% | 4.62 | 2.83 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 72 | 309 | 97 | 35 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.4% | 11.3% | 20.1% | 1.6% | 4.62 | 2.77 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 69 | 0 | 75 | 326 | 78 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 1.2% | 3.72 | 2.97 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 69 | 0 | 75 | 326 | 78 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 1.5% | 3.72 | 3.17 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 60 | 284 | 45 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 11.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 6.75 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 60 | 284 | 45 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 6.75 | 5.20 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 8.7% | 24.6% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 1.39 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.6% | 12.5% | 22.1% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 1.78 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 90 | 0 | 84 | 428 | 105 | 58 | 21 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 7.04 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 44 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 39 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 5.38 | 5.52 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.65 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 36 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 5.38 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 30 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.65 | 5.83 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 400 | 0 | 413 | 1871 | 425 | 233 | 58 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 4.46 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 907 | 206 | 113 | 28 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 498 | 0 | 515 | 2349 | 507 | 283 | 49 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 5.42 | 3.94 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 912 | 197 | 110 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 5.42 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Lawrence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 2.4% | — | 5.51 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 124 | +1.25 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 80 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 77 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 72 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 71 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 71 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 71 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 71 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 70 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 2.5% | .296 | 2.55 | 33.3% | 22.0% | 162 | -1.67 | 1.99 | 488 | 69 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 69 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 69 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.54 | 26.2% | 14.5% | 1.5% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 537 | 69 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 69 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 69 |
| Leonel Campos R 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 168 | 68 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.44 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .293 | 3.55 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 147 | -0.89 | 3.07 | 363 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 22.2% | 12.6% | 1.38 | 5.10 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |