Edwin Cervantes — OGILVIE

Edwin Cervantes P ACL Reds

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 159 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%22.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	7	45	189	42	26	2	50%	3.2	15.1%	17.2%	-2.1%	1.6%	2.78	4.89	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	7	45	189	42	26	2	50%	3.2	22.2%	13.8%	8.5%	1.1%	2.78	3.54	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	15	1	24	123	31	15	2	7%	1.6	17.1%	15.2%	1.9%	2.1%	9.89	4.76	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	15	1	24	123	31	15	2	7%	1.6	17.1%	15.2%	1.9%	2.1%	9.89	4.76	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	15	1	24	123	31	15	2	7%	1.6	25.2%	12.2%	13.0%	1.6%	9.89	3.48	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	0	3	16	2	3	0	0%	1.0	12.5%	18.8%	-6.2%	0.0%	9.00	4.42	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	0	3	16	2	3	0	0%	1.0	12.5%	18.8%	-6.2%	0.0%	9.00	4.42	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	3	0	3	16	2	3	0	0%	1.0	12.5%	18.8%	-6.2%	0.0%	9.00	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CIN	13	0	14	59	14	7	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.0%	11.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	20	9	2	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.38	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.00	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		32	8	72	328	52	54	6	25%	2.2	15.7%	16.5%	-0.8%	1.7%	5.38	4.82	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	22	200	911	143	151	16	25%	2.2	15.7%	16.5%	-0.8%	1.7%	5.38	4.82	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwin Cervantes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.9%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.38	23.7%	13.6%	20	-0.20	—	—	—
Felix Doubront L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	20.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.312	4.02	21.6%	11.6%	323	+0.02	3.44	719	84
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	84
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	83
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	81
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	81
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	368	80
Juliandry Higuera L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	20.0%	9.4%	2.3%	.358	4.64	13.8%	-0.3%	43	+0.77	3.87	197	79
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	79
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	78
Ronnie Glenn L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	22	SU	3.47	20.9%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	5.00	11.1%	-2.6%	171	+1.53	3.47	212	77
Nick Dombkowski L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SU	4.48	21.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.208	4.71	16.7%	7.7%	223	+0.23	3.71	425	76
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	76
Zach Morris L 2015 · 3.59 FIP	22	SU	3.59	18.5%	10.1%	1.4%	.286	4.38	13.9%	2.4%	84	+0.79	3.34	109	75
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	75
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	75
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	75
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	74
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	74
Luis Paulino L 2019 · 3.54 FIP	21	SU	3.54	19.1%	10.5%	1.3%	.269	2.75	20.2%	9.5%	50	-0.79	2.57	103	74
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.28	335	74