Arlison Rodriguez
P
DSL Mets Blue
Age 23
LHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 117
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 18 | 0 | 26 | 119 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.1% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 4.78 | 3.57 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 18 | 0 | 26 | 119 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.2% | 7.6% | 17.6% | 0.8% | 4.78 | 2.34 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mets Blue | 16 | 3 | 44 | 185 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 19% | 2.8 | 14.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 3.05 | 4.55 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mets Blue | 16 | 3 | 44 | 185 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 19% | 2.8 | 20.5% | 5.9% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 3.05 | 3.01 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 207 | 69 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 34 | 3 | 71 | 304 | 46 | 25 | 7 | 9% | 2.1 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 4.17 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 8 | 200 | 860 | 131 | 71 | 21 | 9% | 2.1 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Arlison Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 27 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.25 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 39 | +1.48 | 3.77 | 132 | 84 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.67 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.08 | 2.51 | 119 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.54 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .259 | 4.09 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.55 | 3.54 | 206 | 81 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 81 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .262 | 3.93 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.01 | 2.70 | 288 | 81 |
| Easton Lucas L 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 81 |
| Garvin Alston L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.29 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.76 | 16.4% | 2.9% | 84 | +0.47 | 4.01 | 232 | 81 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .294 | 2.76 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.76 | 2.17 | 310 | 80 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 80 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 80 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 80 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 80 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .342 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.22 | 2.21 | 452 | 80 |
| Chris Cotton L 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.13 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.47 | 3.66 | 128 | 80 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.89 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.81 | 4.08 | 212 | 79 |
| Brian Marconi L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 79 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 79 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 79 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 1.16 | 4.29 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |