Luis Flores

P Lake County Captains

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKCLE	17	23	5.87	4.10	38.6%	21.1%	—	K 26.2% · BB 26.3% · FIP 6.27
2025	21	MIX2 levels	37	52	4.64	3.18	33.5%	19.2%	—	K 26.3% · BB 21.8% · FIP 4.25
2026	22	A+CLE	35	38	9.16	6.23	18.7%	23.6%	—	K 14.4% · BB 27.2% · FIP 6.68
2027PROJ	23	MLBCLE	86	90	5.92	5.92	19.6%	20.0%	-1.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCLE	38	40	5.51	5.34	21.6%	16.8%	-0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCLE	59	62	5.16	4.98	22.8%	14.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Control20Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsFabian Williamson (age 26) · Gil Luna (age 24) · Julian Bosnic (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 146

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%19.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD4545

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	19	0	25	121	32	22	0	0%	1.3	18.0%	22.7%	-4.7%	0.0%	3.20	4.46	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Blue	19	0	25	121	32	22	0	0%	1.3	26.4%	18.2%	8.3%	0.0%	3.20	3.18	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	2	0	2	11	3	5	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	45.5%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	6.55	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Blue	2	0	2	11	3	5	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	45.5%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	7.60	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	17	0	23	114	44	24	3	0%	1.4	26.2%	26.3%	-0.1%	3.7%	5.87	6.27	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	17	0	23	114	44	24	3	0%	1.4	26.2%	26.3%	-0.1%	3.7%	5.87	6.27	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	17	0	23	114	44	24	3	0%	1.4	38.6%	21.1%	17.5%	2.6%	5.87	4.10	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	239	80	46	2	0%	1.4	26.3%	21.8%	4.4%	1.1%	4.64	4.25	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	239	80	46	2	0%	1.4	26.3%	21.8%	4.4%	1.1%	4.64	4.25	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	52	239	80	46	2	0%	1.4	33.5%	19.2%	14.2%	0.8%	4.64	3.18	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	35	0	38	203	38	48	4	0%	1.1	14.4%	27.2%	-12.8%	2.5%	9.16	6.68	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	35	0	38	203	38	48	4	0%	1.1	14.4%	27.2%	-12.8%	2.5%	9.16	6.68	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	35	0	38	203	38	48	4	0%	1.1	18.7%	23.6%	-4.9%	2.0%	9.16	6.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	86	0	90	380	75	76	11	0%	1.0	19.6%	20.0%	-0.4%	2.8%	5.92	5.92	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	88	0	92	389	84	66	11	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.8%	4.7%	2.8%	5.51	5.34	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	89	0	93	394	90	58	11	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.8%	8.0%	2.8%	5.16	4.98	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	89	0	93	394	92	57	11	0%	1.0	23.4%	14.4%	9.1%	2.8%	4.98	4.88	-0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	88	0	92	388	91	56	11	0%	1.0	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.90	-0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	85	0	89	377	88	54	11	0%	1.0	23.3%	14.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.96	4.98	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	81	0	85	360	83	53	11	0%	1.1	23.0%	14.7%	8.4%	3.1%	5.05	5.11	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	76	0	80	338	77	51	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.0%	7.7%	3.3%	5.20	5.29	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	38	0	40	169	36	28	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.8%	4.7%	2.8%	5.51	5.34	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	59	0	62	262	60	39	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	14.8%	8.0%	2.8%	5.16	4.98	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	70	0	74	312	73	45	9	0%	1.1	23.4%	14.4%	9.1%	2.8%	4.98	4.88	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	74	0	78	329	77	47	10	0%	1.1	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.90	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	75	0	79	334	78	48	10	0%	1.1	23.3%	14.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.96	4.98	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	73	0	77	325	75	48	10	0%	1.1	23.0%	14.7%	8.4%	3.1%	5.05	5.11	-0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	70	0	74	312	71	47	10	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.0%	7.7%	3.3%	5.20	5.29	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		462	0	485	2047	471	302	61	0%	1.0	23.0%	14.8%	8.2%	3.0%	5.08	4.67	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	125	25	0%	1.1	23.0%	14.8%	8.2%	3.0%	5.08	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		110	0	141	688	147	170	12	0%	1.3	21.3%	24.7%	-3.4%	1.7%	5.87	5.38	-3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	976	208	241	17	0%	1.3	21.3%	24.7%	-3.4%	1.7%	5.87	5.38	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Flores (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	19.6%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.07	22.6%	7.3%	279	-0.85	—	—	—
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	80
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	79
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	79
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	78
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	78
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	78
Ben Harris L 2023 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	25.4%	21.9%	1.9%	.252	5.29	22.7%	2.9%	76	+0.53	3.06	183	77
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	77
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	77
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	77
Eric Torres L 2023 · 6.58 FIP	23	SU	6.58	21.7%	19.8%	5.1%	.283	4.18	26.5%	10.4%	56	-2.40	2.81	155	76
Adrian Almeida L 2018 · 5.49 FIP	23	SU	5.49	19.1%	24.5%	1.6%	.223	5.10	19.9%	-4.6%	59	-0.39	4.27	188	76
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	76
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	76
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	75
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	75
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	22.5%	15.6%	1.14	5.21
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56