Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang

Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 198 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION85 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%18.2%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL—55

CMD5560

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	8	8	42	186	43	9	9	100%	5.2	17.1%	5.7%	11.4%	6.3%	4.71	5.82	—
2022	21	A RAW	Stockton Ports	8	8	42	186	43	9	9	100%	5.2	23.1%	4.8%	18.3%	4.8%	4.71	4.48	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	15	86	333	84	12	5	65%	3.7	19.3%	4.1%	15.2%	2.0%	2.09	3.07	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	15	86	333	84	12	5	65%	3.7	19.3%	4.1%	15.2%	2.0%	2.09	3.07	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	15	86	333	84	12	5	65%	3.7	25.2%	3.6%	21.6%	1.5%	2.09	2.32	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	26	146	617	145	35	22	93%	5.2	19.0%	6.2%	12.8%	4.1%	4.08	4.54	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	26	146	617	145	35	22	93%	5.2	19.0%	6.2%	12.8%	4.1%	4.08	4.54	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	28	26	146	617	145	35	22	93%	5.2	23.5%	5.7%	17.8%	3.6%	4.08	3.79	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	20	17	85	383	63	32	22	85%	4.2	13.8%	7.9%	5.9%	6.6%	6.38	6.54	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	20	17	85	383	63	32	22	85%	4.2	13.8%	7.9%	5.9%	6.6%	6.38	6.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	OAK	1	1	2	8	0	0	0	100%	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.10	—
2026	25	AA RAW	OAK	4	4	23	92	21	5	4	100%	5.8	22.8%	5.4%	17.4%	4.3%	2.74	4.25	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	OAK	15	12	60	283	42	27	18	80%	4.0	14.8%	9.5%	5.3%	6.4%	7.84	6.55	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	OAK	1	1	8	32	6	2	1	100%	7.6	18.2%	4.9%	13.3%	3.4%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	92	415	69	34	23	—	—	16.6%	8.1%	8.5%	5.6%	6.22	6.37	-1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	131	554	104	28	19	100%	6.0	18.8%	5.1%	13.7%	3.4%	4.39	4.38	+0.8
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	129	545	104	29	18	100%	5.9	19.0%	5.4%	13.7%	3.4%	4.40	4.41	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	125	529	101	30	18	100%	6.0	19.0%	5.6%	13.4%	3.5%	4.45	4.48	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	120	505	95	30	18	100%	6.0	18.9%	5.9%	13.0%	3.6%	4.55	4.61	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	112	475	88	30	18	100%	5.9	18.5%	6.2%	12.3%	3.8%	4.69	4.79	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	105	442	80	29	18	100%	6.2	18.1%	6.6%	11.6%	4.0%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	63	266	50	14	9	100%	6.3	18.8%	5.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.34	4.33	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	85	359	68	19	12	100%	6.1	19.0%	5.4%	13.7%	3.3%	4.35	4.36	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	97	410	78	23	14	100%	6.1	19.0%	5.6%	13.4%	3.4%	4.40	4.43	+0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	99	418	79	25	15	100%	6.2	18.9%	5.9%	13.0%	3.5%	4.50	4.56	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	97	410	76	25	15	100%	6.1	18.5%	6.2%	12.3%	3.7%	4.64	4.74	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	94	397	72	26	16	100%	5.9	18.1%	6.6%	11.6%	3.9%	4.81	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	536	2263	424	132	80	100%	6.0	18.7%	5.9%	12.9%	3.5%	4.52	4.20	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	49	30	100%	6.0	18.7%	5.9%	12.9%	3.5%	4.52	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		79	66	358	1519	267	93	69	84%	4.5	17.5%	6.1%	11.4%	4.5%	4.22	4.88	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	848	149	52	38	84%	4.5	17.5%	6.1%	11.4%	4.5%	4.22	4.88	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	18.2%	4.9%	3.4%	—	4.42	18.9%	13.6%	385	-0.01	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	85
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	85
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	85
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	83
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	83
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	82
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	81
Joe Wieland R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	16.6%	5.4%	1.8%	.352	4.27	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.89	3.38	270	80
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	79
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	78
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	78
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	78
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	78
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	78
Nathan Wiles R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP-	4.68	17.0%	5.7%	4.2%	.308	4.39	17.0%	10.7%	200	-0.29	4.22	399	78
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	78
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	77
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	116	18.7%	5.7%	1.38	4.53
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01