Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 198 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.1 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%18.2%
BB%5.1%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | 8 | 8 | 42 | 186 | 43 | 9 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 4.71 | 5.81 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | 8 | 8 | 42 | 186 | 43 | 9 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.1% | 4.8% | 18.3% | 4.8% | 4.71 | 4.48 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 15 | 86 | 333 | 84 | 12 | 5 | 65% | 3.7 | 19.3% | 4.1% | 15.2% | 2.1% | 2.09 | 3.16 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 15 | 86 | 333 | 84 | 12 | 5 | 65% | 3.7 | 25.2% | 3.6% | 21.6% | 1.5% | 2.09 | 2.32 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 28 | 26 | 146 | 617 | 145 | 35 | 22 | 93% | 5.2 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 4.08 | 4.45 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 28 | 26 | 146 | 617 | 145 | 35 | 22 | 93% | 5.2 | 23.5% | 5.7% | 17.8% | 3.6% | 4.08 | 3.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 16 | 14 | 70 | 312 | 55 | 24 | 19 | 88% | 4.4 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.43 | 6.61 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 60 | 255 | 46 | 13 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 5.1% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | OAK | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 5.1% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 130 | 567 | 101 | 37 | 28 | — | — | 17.9% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 4.9% | 5.50 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 24 | 102 | 19 | 5 | 3 | — | — | 18.2% | 5.1% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 90 | 379 | 71 | 20 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 5.3% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.39 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 88 | 373 | 71 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 5.6% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 86 | 362 | 69 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 46 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 5.3% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 54 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 5.6% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 58 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 221 | 934 | 176 | 52 | 31 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.01 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 159 | 47 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 75 | 63 | 344 | 1448 | 260 | 88 | 64 | 84% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 6.1% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 4.14 | 4.79 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 37 | 200 | 843 | 152 | 51 | 37 | 84% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 6.1% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 4.14 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 18.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | — | 4.43 | 18.9% | 13.4% | 264 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 88 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 86 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 81 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 81 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 80 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 79 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 79 |
| Wilmer Font R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.55 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .277 | 3.87 | 26.2% | 19.1% | 263 | +0.32 | 2.78 | 345 | 79 |
| Garrett McMillan R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 118 | 77 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | .352 | 4.50 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 124 | +0.94 | 3.56 | 270 | 76 |
| Max Beatty R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.32 | 11.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | .264 | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.8% | 46 | -0.63 | 3.69 | 117 | 76 |
| Jeffrey Passantino R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.13 | 18.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .298 | 4.58 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 41 | -0.55 | 2.02 | 242 | 76 |
| Mat Latos R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 76 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 15.1% | 5.6% | 183 | +0.97 | 3.24 | 289 | 76 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.33 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.39 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.06 | 3.33 | 197 | 75 |
| Mitch Myers R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | .338 | 5.87 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 72 | +1.25 | 3.50 | 412 | 75 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 74 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.23 | 21.6% | 12.3% | 25 | +0.39 | 3.84 | 254 | 74 |
| Hector Noesí R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 74 |
| Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.61 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .274 | 3.93 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 91 | +0.32 | 3.00 | 483 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 81 | 18.8% | 5.5% | 1.30 | 4.42 |
| Scott Feldman ('17) | 3 | 99 | 16.7% | 6.4% | 1.33 | 4.25 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Wei-Yin Chen ('19) | 5 | 110 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 1.43 | 4.49 |
| Alec Mills ('21) | 3 | 72 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 1.41 | 4.51 |
| Dillon Gee ('17) | 3 | 71 | 16.4% | 6.7% | 1.56 | 4.63 |
| Adrian Sampson ('22) | 4 | 72 | 17.6% | 6.1% | 1.66 | 4.38 |