Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 198 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.3 · 2028
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%13.4%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | 8 | 8 | 42 | 186 | 43 | 9 | 9 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.71 | 5.82 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 23 | 15 | 86 | 333 | 84 | 12 | 5 | 19.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 2.09 | 3.08 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 28 | 26 | 146 | 617 | 145 | 35 | 22 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.08 | 4.56 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 3 | 3 | 13 | 60 | 12 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | 6.07 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 41 | 14 | 7 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 61 | 263 | 53 | 21 | 10 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 4.85 | 3.53 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 112 | 37 | 18 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 115 | 39 | 18 | 20.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 115 | 39 | 19 | 20.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 112 | 39 | 18 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 107 | 38 | 18 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 103 | 37 | 18 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 97 | 37 | 17 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 91 | 36 | 17 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 85 | 35 | 17 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 79 | 34 | 16 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.06 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 72 | 33 | 16 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 5.19 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 52 | 287 | 1196 | 226 | 70 | 47 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.67 | 4.40 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 36 | 200 | 833 | 157 | 49 | 33 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.67 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 3.4% | — | 4.46 | 20.9% | 13.8% | 387 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .283 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 89 | -0.37 | 3.52 | 136 | 94 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 91 |
| Andres Avila R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.99 | 16.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 73 | +0.14 | 3.99 | 177 | 90 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | .364 | 6.24 | 17.3% | 5.0% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.59 | 108 | 88 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 88 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 88 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 86 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 85 |
| Trey Cobb R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.45 | 18.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | .317 | 6.91 | 13.4% | 3.6% | 40 | +2.46 | 3.95 | 192 | 85 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 84 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.46 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.79 | 3.46 | 138 | 84 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | .342 | 5.44 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.27 | 4.17 | 165 | 84 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 83 |
| John Brebbia R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 83 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 82 |
| Rob Griswold R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .303 | 4.70 | 10.7% | 4.3% | 100 | +1.13 | 3.57 | 203 | 82 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 82 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 145 | 82 |
| Max Duval R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 15.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .317 | 5.44 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 127 | +0.90 | 3.27 | 189 | 82 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.0 | $9M | +$7M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $11M | $48M | +$37M | ||