Melvin Pineda — OGILVIE

Melvin Pineda P ACL Giants

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 201 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%22.2%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	11	38	169	56	21	1	100%	3.5	22.5%	15.5%	7.0%	0.8%	3.79	3.59	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	11	11	38	169	56	21	1	100%	3.5	33.1%	12.4%	20.7%	0.6%	3.79	2.15	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	1	1	0	4	0	3	0	100%	—	0.0%	75.0%	-75.0%	0.0%	—	12.60	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	1	1	0	4	0	3	0	100%	—	0.0%	75.0%	-75.0%	0.0%	—	12.60	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	1	1	0	4	0	3	0	100%	—	0.0%	75.0%	-75.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	4	26	115	38	20	4	22%	1.4	23.1%	20.9%	2.3%	3.6%	5.96	5.75	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	4	26	115	38	20	4	22%	1.4	23.1%	20.9%	2.3%	3.6%	5.96	5.75	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	4	26	115	38	20	4	22%	1.4	33.0%	17.4%	15.7%	3.5%	5.96	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	37	0	49	240	84	41	4	0%	1.3	24.6%	20.8%	3.7%	2.2%	6.57	4.87	—
YTD	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	37	0	49	240	84	41	4	0%	1.3	24.6%	20.8%	3.7%	2.2%	6.57	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	SF	20	0	27	121	54	22	1	0%	1.3	44.6%	18.2%	26.4%	0.8%	4.39	2.09	—
2026	22	A RAW	SF	17	0	23	119	30	19	3	0%	1.3	25.2%	16.0%	9.2%	2.5%	9.13	4.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	48	0	50	212	49	31	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	14.9%	8.2%	3.0%	5.19	5.06	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	49	0	51	217	51	29	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	13.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.92	4.78	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	24	16	3	0%	1.0	23.0%	14.9%	8.2%	3.0%	5.19	5.06	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	34	0	36	152	36	20	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.92	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	255	60	35	8	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.8%	9.5%	3.0%	5.03	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	116	26	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.8%	9.5%	3.0%	5.03	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		66	15	113	524	124	100	11	23%	1.7	23.6%	19.1%	4.5%	2.0%	5.50	4.65	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	27	200	927	219	177	19	23%	1.7	23.6%	19.1%	4.5%	2.0%	5.50	4.65	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Pineda (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	22.2%	17.5%	3.0%	—	4.92	23.3%	9.3%	102	-0.57	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	88
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	87
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	86
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	85
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	85
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	84
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	84
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	83
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Gabriel Ponce R 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	24.4%	16.2%	2.8%	.328	4.54	22.4%	7.7%	110	-0.08	4.45	161	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	82
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	82
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	82
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	82
Jonathan Teaney R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	22.5%	19.8%	1.9%	.328	5.65	16.4%	0.7%	55	+0.88	4.77	108	81
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	23.2%	14.4%	1.16	5.11
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41